Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Lexington, Wellesley: treasure, rental market, condo)

[mdovell]

The glue between these markets I think is many of the small restaurants and shops. These aren't ones locals went to but employees that went in on a daily basis. The family I have that is in the restaurant business is doing well. He's been in the industry long enough that he has a legit social proof of his expertise and he's making videos online with partners. I can't say that others are nearly as lucky.

"the neighborhood will support me" doesn't exactly ring true if there's nothing making it different from any other place around it. If it's a restaurant with legit dishes or a shop that caters to a type sure. But if it's a generic corner store that's seen volume drop that isn't any different from any other corner store it's screwed.

Ever hear of Ethel & Andy's Sandwich Shop? Last time I went there was 20 years ago. It's still in business. But they have delivery with grubhub and tons of yelp reviews many of which are not local reviewers. Old school inside but modern for outside. These are the places more apt to stay.

[id77]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

Area de-gentrifies due to what's left of the middle class leaving (and perhaps some very poor people moving in and increasing crime) and/or taxes skyrocketing to pay all the Rona-related bailouts. That is, if you aren't unemployed yourself because real remote workers in HCOL areas are at a huge disadvantage because they are so noncompetitive on salary demands. Imagine if you had to take a 20% hit on your salary to stay employed - would you still be able to afford your mortgage?

What I am talking about happened here in the burbs from in 2008 or so. It was somewhat mitigated because of burb employers importing foreign workers before 2008 but there were a ton of people who left and went to New Hampshire and states like Texas and North Carolina. But once those employers started to move into the city after 2008, SFH prices slumped and condo prices collapsed.

The big complaint about gentrification is that it pushes the middle class out, so them leaving isn't going to de-gentrify things. Besides, the middle class was already an endangered species in inner Boston before all of this. I think there's some hoping for what you describe because it will make those neighborhoods accessible to the middle class again, but it's looking to be a pipe dream.

I don't quite follow the 20% pay cut argument. Short answer is yes I'd be fine, but like many people buying in inner Boston, I'm not relying solely on wages to buy a home, and am using a mortgage as leverage more than a means of affordability. If mortgage rates went to 6% tomorrow, you'd see a wave of condo owners (myself included) simply cashing out some stock and paying off (or significantly down) their mortgage because the benefit of leverage goes away.

The shutdown and unemployment is putting hardship on the rental market, but if you want to collapse the owner-occupied condo prices in inner Boston you're going to need a prolonged correction/bear market in stocks because that's where the money is coming from...and 2020 was quite generous to stock investors.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by id77

The shutdown and unemployment is putting hardship on the rental market, but if you want to collapse the owner-occupied condo prices in inner Boston you're going to need a prolonged correction/bear market in stocks because that's where the money is coming from...and 2020 was quite generous to stock investors.

It all depends on COVID, not the stock market. The reality is that Boston is nowhere as desirable in a COVID world.

We'll see how the vaccine goes.

[mdovell]

I'm wondering with the economy coming back eventually what would be the first things to really go back up in price...

I'm thinking fuel and energy as it can go up before housing can. Just like last spring when people went back to cars that were kinda chewed (replaced a blower fan due to a mouse). I'm thinking gas, diesel, natural gas propane etc. I'm wondering if I should lock in with oil about now.

Boston can kinda still be desirable but it depends. If vaccines end up creating some sort of passport immunity and borders open up but just for that you'd bet that many of those want to get out. Of course that can create huge equity issues but that's besides the point.

I've had it for any sort of basic news. Now I'm watching webinars at lunch. Look up trade association groups are saying because they can know things before it hits the news. Business news is pretty boring but it can help. I can't tell you how many times I mention things to my folks and they act like some tv station is going to go out of its way to explain things. I'm really hating that meridith company for merging news with entertainment. It's like fox news without the political bent.

[msRB311]

I guess one way Boston is now more desirable for me is that there aren’t any crowds right now. Anywhere.

[AtkinsonDan]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I guess one way Boston is now more desirable for me is that there aren’t any crowds right now. Anywhere.

Are you a crowd-hater? I'm a crowd-hater.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by AtkinsonDan

Are you a crowd-hater? I'm a crowd-hater.

Yes! I’m guessing there are more crowd haters now after all this.

[redplum33]

The first case of the UK variant in the US has been confirmed.

It's a 20 year old person from Colorado who has no travel history.

[porterhouse]

Flights are running to the UK. Just as when Covid first arrived last year, that variant has likely been here for months.

[msRB311]

I dont quite get this new strain situation.

3,659 new COVID cases, 58 deaths