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Old 03-31-2020, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,125 posts, read 5,098,910 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Stark View Post
How many dead?

Yes I think the USA and MA have hit the more or less peak of cases. Last four or so days in the USA has been about the same.
+570 deaths in the US yesterday...not sure what numbers you're seeing
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Old 03-31-2020, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
12,426 posts, read 9,519,802 times
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Default There is hope for US (us)

So, I'll tell you what - if you study this plot of the daily increase in cases, you can see what looks like a transition, from an exponential rise to a cresting, a concave to a convex surface. While things could still take off again if we screw up further, this would suggest at a minimum that mitigation measures are having some observable beneficial effect, at the national level.

Attached Thumbnails
Coronavirus in Massachusetts-coronavirus-dailyincrease-mar-31-2020.jpg  

Last edited by OutdoorLover; 03-31-2020 at 02:43 PM..
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Old 03-31-2020, 02:33 PM
 
15,796 posts, read 20,499,262 times
Reputation: 20974
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Stark View Post
How many dead?

Yes I think the USA and MA have hit the more or less peak of cases.
33 new deaths. Fatality rate hovering around 1.2% in MA, based on current data.


I don't know if i'd say it's hit peak, but it is cresting. It's going to take another week of data or such to really make a confident statement. This "peak" could also be 3 weeks long if the case counts remain consistent. That's still a lot of potential deaths and a burdened health care system.

I think the takeaway here is that it isn't uncontrolled, exponential growth, and the measures being taken are doing something.


I don't think the US has peaked considering not every state/region has implemented the same measures. As people flee from epicenters to the "quiet" areas, those places may see their own outbreak in 1-2 weeks from now.
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Old 03-31-2020, 02:44 PM
 
18,725 posts, read 33,390,141 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonMike7 View Post
...
I don't know if i'd say it's hit peak, but it is cresting. ...

I don't think the US has peaked considering not every state/region has implemented the same measures. As people flee from epicenters to the "quiet" areas, those places may see their own outbreak in 1-2 weeks from now.
Exactly. It's like a rolling blackout.
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Old 03-31-2020, 02:59 PM
 
3,079 posts, read 1,544,801 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonMike7 View Post
33 new deaths. Fatality rate hovering around 1.2% in MA, based on current data.


I don't know if i'd say it's hit peak, but it is cresting. It's going to take another week of data or such to really make a confident statement. This "peak" could also be 3 weeks long if the case counts remain consistent. That's still a lot of potential deaths and a burdened health care system.

I think the takeaway here is that it isn't uncontrolled, exponential growth, and the measures being taken are doing something.


I don't think the US has peaked considering not every state/region has implemented the same measures. As people flee from epicenters to the "quiet" areas, those places may see their own outbreak in 1-2 weeks from now.
“A burdened health care system” yet Boston Medical is furloughing 10% of their staff due to falling revenue! If the hospitals are so overburdened, and the ins cos are suppose to be paying the full bill, with the furloughs, who is taking care of the patients?
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:03 PM
 
875 posts, read 663,831 times
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Has anyone seen a plot that compares case growth rate by state? I haven't seen one, but others on here may have and that would be very telling.

I'm concerned that that the current view is distorted by the two ends of the spectrum - NY/NJ being 50% of cases, and most of other states being at the early stage of their own growth curves. Any reduction of growth rate in NY/NJ will shift the overall curve by nature of the high absolute numbers.
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:06 PM
 
Location: near bears but at least no snakes
26,654 posts, read 28,682,916 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
Not far from the truth. I heard 2 days ago a stat that said 56% of the new cases outside NY were from people traveling from NY. That is astounding, and if so, could have been behind Trump's idea to isolate the Tri-State region. I still think something should be done...there are no controls in place, and we're relying on people self-regulating themselves, and self-quarantining at their destination.
I was hoping Trump would really do it. CT would have been ok if it hadn't been for New Yorkers fleeing to our state. Probably it's why over in England right now, people are not supposed to be driving! The police can stop them and ask to see papers that allow them to go to work or whatever. They really clamped down--finally. If people here had been given a fair warning that they wouldn't be allowed to leave their state, it would have given some of them enough time to prepare and then flee, but a lot of them wouldn't have been able to do it in time so they wouldn't be in CT.

It's similar to what China did even though it seemed horrible at the time. They blocked the roads out of Wuhan. I remember seeing the pictures--literally blocked the roads going out. Blocked them with logs or concrete blocks or cars or whatever, but they blocked the roads and the virus stayed mostly in that one city.
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:06 PM
 
3,079 posts, read 1,544,801 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sawyer2 View Post
Has anyone seen a plot that compares case growth rate by state? I haven't seen one, but others on here may have and that would be very telling.

I'm concerned that that the current view is distorted by the two ends of the spectrum - NY/NJ being 50% of cases, and most of other states being at the early stage of their own growth curves. Any reduction of growth rate in NY/NJ will shift the overall curve by nature of the high absolute numbers.
There was graphs in the Boston Globe yesterday that showed the case curve by state. You just had to click on the pull down menu for the state . Might be there today under the globe’s covid info.
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:16 PM
 
15,796 posts, read 20,499,262 times
Reputation: 20974
Quote:
Originally Posted by sawyer2 View Post
Has anyone seen a plot that compares case growth rate by state? I haven't seen one, but others on here may have and that would be very telling.

I'm concerned that that the current view is distorted by the two ends of the spectrum - NY/NJ being 50% of cases, and most of other states being at the early stage of their own growth curves. Any reduction of growth rate in NY/NJ will shift the overall curve by nature of the high absolute numbers.
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
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Old 03-31-2020, 03:20 PM
 
15,796 posts, read 20,499,262 times
Reputation: 20974
Quote:
Originally Posted by Williepaws View Post
“A burdened health care system” yet Boston Medical is furloughing 10% of their staff due to falling revenue! If the hospitals are so overburdened, and the ins cos are suppose to be paying the full bill, with the furloughs, who is taking care of the patients?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.biz...staff.amp.html

No medical staff. Mostly administrative
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