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Old 03-26-2016, 04:57 PM
 
11,180 posts, read 10,619,257 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64 View Post
But the Deep South does? Does winning Conservative strongholds in a primary make you competitive in a general election?
The "Deep South" is not a demographic. To win the general, the Dem candidate will have to mobilize AA and Hispanic voters. Without AA and Hispanic support, the Dem candidate will just be battling it out with Trump for the white non-Hispanic vote. Alaska and Washington don't help Bernie in that regard.

 
Old 03-26-2016, 04:58 PM
 
Location: Denver CO
24,201 posts, read 19,444,028 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64 View Post
But the Deep South does? Does winning Conservative strongholds in a primary make you competitive in a general election?

Hillary has won swing states, not just conservative states. And many of Bernie's wins have also been in states that will be red in November.

Swing states winning percentages

Iowa -- Hillary +.3
New Hampshire -- Bernie +22 56,000 votes
Nevada -- Hillary +5
Colorado -- Bernie +19 23,000 votes
Florida -- Hillary +31 531,000 votes
Ohio -- Hillary +14 166,000 votes
Virginia -- Hillary +29 228,000 votes
North Carolina Hillary +14 +156,067 votes

Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, Utah, Alaska - all are Red states and account for half of Bernie's wins. So how does that make him any more competitive, esp. when Hillary has won so many purple swing states?
 
Old 03-26-2016, 05:50 PM
 
14,221 posts, read 7,043,311 times
Reputation: 6059
Maine isnt a red state. Its funny though, on the one hand, he is portrayed as a fringe extremist with lunatic ideas which can only appeal to the radical leftists. Yet he is criticized for having too much appeal among white working class people in conservative states....go figure....thats the demographic that has abandoned the Democrats for the GOP over the last few decades as corporate Democrats took over from the FDR democrats like Bernie....

Hillary is not winning big among swing voters in swing states. Its the most loyal democrats who carry her to victory in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Winning swing states as a result of overwhelming support among swing voters in that state (independents and the white working class) is the real key metric for how they will do in a general election. Thats what Bernie is doing in NH and Colorado and Minnesota and thats what he did in Iowa and Nevada and Michigan.

Its absurd to suggest that African Americans hate Bernie and would vote Trump in a general election in swing states. They dont know who he is. Just look at the videos on youtube of "Black men for Bernie". Its really telling.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCN-...QjnAy1sLb4nzpg

Interestingly, Alaska is less white than South Carolina and Louisiana. Its like when Bernie was closing in on Hillary in Nevada, suddenly the Hillary campaign announced that more than 80% of Nevada was white so it didnt really count.

Judging by the polling in swing states against republicans, Bernie will do extremely well in these states because he not only carries the loyal democrats, but also the white working class, the independents and energizes the young people.

Last edited by PCALMike; 03-26-2016 at 06:01 PM..
 
Old 03-26-2016, 06:11 PM
 
14,221 posts, read 7,043,311 times
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Interestingly, it seems like the most Asian districts in WA state have gone 70-75% in favor of Bernie. Could be a harbinger for California. Not surprising though. Its not like Asians (or Native Americans and Muslims who already overwhelmingly support Sanders over Clinton) hate the concept of higher minimum wage, health care for all, getting big money out of politics and investing money on human needs in America instead of perpetual warfare in the Middle East.
 
Old 03-26-2016, 08:55 PM
 
Location: Florida
111 posts, read 120,391 times
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Could either nominee beat Cruz is the question. Trump has more delegates than Cruz, Hilary has more delegates than Bernie.
 
Old 03-26-2016, 10:34 PM
 
9,930 posts, read 7,847,244 times
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So I don't understand why they say Washington has 101 delegates. However, Sabders won 23 and Hillary won 8 what happen to the other 70?
 
Old 03-26-2016, 11:28 PM
 
2,986 posts, read 2,006,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PCALMike View Post
Interestingly, it seems like the most Asian districts in WA state have gone 70-75% in favor of Bernie. Could be a harbinger for California. Not surprising though. Its not like Asians (or Native Americans and Muslims who already overwhelmingly support Sanders over Clinton) hate the concept of higher minimum wage, health care for all, getting big money out of politics and investing money on human needs in America instead of perpetual warfare in the Middle East.
Can't compare between primary and caucus
Hillary does really bad at caucuses
Just compare to 2008 primaries
Washington caucus : Obama +36.5%
Washington non-binding primary : Obama +5.6%
California primary : Clinton +8.3%

Also Latino vote in Nevada caucus entrance poll has Sanders +8
But in huge Latino population like Texas Florida Arizona, it's Hillary 7-3
 
Old 03-26-2016, 11:29 PM
 
2,986 posts, read 2,006,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RunD1987 View Post
So I don't understand why they say Washington has 101 delegates. However, Sabders won 23 and Hillary won 8 what happen to the other 70?
Green papers has rough estimate :
Sanders 74
Clinton 27
 
Old 03-26-2016, 11:33 PM
 
2,986 posts, read 2,006,322 times
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25 pledged delegates for Hawaii
Early results show about Sanders 17 - 8 Clinton



So for the past 7 contests since March 15th, namely Democrats Abroad, Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, Hawaii, the 286 delegates are split as follows:
Bernie Sanders - 189 (66%)
Hillary Clinton - 97 (34%)

Still have Wisconsin and Wyoming coming up which are in favour of Sanders.

Last edited by Daywalk; 03-27-2016 at 12:03 AM..
 
Old 03-27-2016, 12:28 AM
 
14,221 posts, read 7,043,311 times
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Hawaii is an ultra white state. Close to Vermont as well. Should be dismissed.
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