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WI and WY are small states with few delegates at stake (esp WY). If he manages to win in PA and NY -even by narrow margins- there might be cause for concern. But at this point Hilary knows she has it wrapped up if she doesn't make any major mistakes. If she does as well as expected in NY, Bernie will need around 80%+ of the CA vote to catch her. That's not gonna happen.
And that's before you start including PA/Maryland/Delaware. That's why if she wins by 15% margins in these states, he's essentially mathematically eliminated because getting 80% of the Cali is unrealistic and pretty much has never been done in history.
ARG, can she get her butt back to Wisconsin and stay there until next Tuesday? Forget about New York until Wyoming votes.
That is about perception and bragging rights. It's not worth her effort. 4% means virtual draw in delegates. Bernie doesn't win that way. It is really impossible for Bernie with the proportional delegate distribution.
ARG, can she get her butt back to Wisconsin and stay there until next Tuesday? Forget about New York until Wyoming votes.
Ultimately WI doesn't matter. Even if he wins by a large margin it's just another predominately white state with relatively few delegates. NY & PA are the next big prizes: If she focuses on those states, and wins decisively, it will be highly implausible for him to catch her.
After NY & PA, the only highly populace state remaining is CA. Polling indicates Clinton leads by about 5%, so even if Bernie manages a narrow upset it won't matter. As some of us have noted many times, he'd need a landslide victory in CA to catch her. As in at least 80%. Not... gonna.... happen.
Ultimately WI doesn't matter. Even if he wins by a large margin it's just another predominately white state with relatively few delegates. NY & PA are the next big prizes: If she focuses on those states, and wins decisively, it will be highly implausible for him to catch her.
After NY & PA, the only highly populace state remaining is CA. Polling indicates Clinton leads by about 5%, so even if Bernie manages a narrow upset it won't matter. As some of us have noted many times, he'd need a landslide victory in CA to catch her. As in at least 80%. Not... gonna.... happen.
There is media narrative right now about her pulling out of Wisconsin. It's not a good sign to pull off because even her base won't turn out for her.
I have a feeling that results may not even be close. 8 years ago, Obama's polling was only a few points ahead 2 weeks before the primary but he ended up winning by 17%.
The only things optimistic about are there is early voting and independents may choose to vote in the GOP side to help or stop Trump.
This is a very good fivethirtyeight article by Nate Silver explaining what needs to happen for Sanders to catch Clinton's pledge delegate total. [Spoiler: It's highly unlikely to happen.]
There is media narrative right now about her pulling out of Wisconsin. It's not a good sign to pull off because even her base won't turn out for her.
Media narrative is wrong. She was in Wisconsin Sunday and Monday, and will be back there this week-end. She doesn't need to "win" the state, she only needs 38 of Wisconsin's 86 delegates to stay on track.
Last edited by biscuitmom; 03-30-2016 at 11:14 PM..
Media narrative is wrong. She was in Wisconsin Monday & Tuesday, and will be back there this week-end. She doesn't need to "win" the state, she only needs 38 of Wisconsin's 86 delegates to stay on track.
Yea Great news
And hope she drops by Wyoming for a few rallies before she goes to Colorado next Thursday
Bernie at this point is putting all his cards on "Momentum". He's hoping that by destroying states, the media is forced to put him on the frontpage headlines and hopes that more people understand Bernie and his message and that he has a chance, thus constituents changing their vote to him in the upcoming primaries. It's about the only strategy he can do at this point so I understand why he's doing it.
The biggest problem for Bernie was that he just lost so hard in the South. So hard. If he made more inroads with the black community, he would have had a much better chance. That was his problem. Not starting earlier in the southern states. He put them off until the last few months before the primary season started. When you lose a region that has 120 million people by average margins of 30%, of course, you're not going to have a great time. He lost Texas and Florida by 30+% .
I mean, yeah Bernie is running it up hard in these western states, but the combined populations of these states are only like 15 million at most. Texas is larger all of these states combined and more. If she wins New York by 20%(and it's a good chance she does since she destroyed Obama by 20+% who had greater support among minorities who make up a decent portion of New York in 2008), she erases essentially all the gains he made in these states over the last couple of weeks.
I mean, Obama BARELY beat Hillary in 2008 and he had a much, much wider coalition than Sanders did.
I am increasingly pessimistic about the upcoming contests for Hillary reading the news and new polls. The momentum is really on his side and she might struggle from it.
The Sanders campaign is going bigger exponentially day by day and maybe Sanders is now repeating Obama's success in late February 2008. Obama won 11 consecutive contests and changed the narrative. sanders will likely win 8 of the last 9 contests after WI and WY.
I think she made a grave mistake for not doing enough in the 5 caucus states that voted last week. If she ran a grassroot campaign just like she did in Iowa and Nevada, she could have gotten it close.
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