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National (McClatchy-Marist) : Sanders +2
Pennsylvania (Qunnipiac) : Clinton +6
I think Sanders now has all the energy, momentum and most importantly, money to run an impressive campaign.
Even though Hillary still leads by about 210 delegates after taking into account Wisconsin and Nevada new results, Sanders got about 239 delegates while Hillary got only 133 delegates since March 15th. There are still 1661 pledged delegates in upcoming contests and there is certainly a probable chance for Sanders to overtake her. Since the media includes superdelegates in delegate count, Hillary will likely be declared the Presumptive Nominee by MSM on the night California votes, regardless whether she still leads Sanders in terms of pledged delegates.
Hmmm, so far my margin seems pretty close...8%, but I think Bernie will win by 10% so my rule of thumb seems correct based on how this primary season has gone. Bernie will always overperform the RCP average when it's a caucus, semi or open primary and Clinton will overperform the RCP average when it's a closed primary. The exit polls in Wisconsin had her winning black voters by a near 50% margin and Democrats in Wisconsin are still choosing her over Bernie which bodes VERY well in New York, PA, and Maryland so Clinton just has to survive one more state(Wyoming), then it's time to rock and roll.
I expect both Clinton and Trump to put daggers in their respective opponents by April 26th.
New York, should she win, will be the dagger in Bernie. The Trump win will take longer to solidify should it occur at all.
National (McClatchy-Marist) : Sanders +2
Pennsylvania (Qunnipiac) : Clinton +6
I think Sanders now has all the energy, momentum and most importantly, money to run an impressive campaign.
Even though Hillary still leads by about 210 delegates after taking into account Wisconsin and Nevada new results, Sanders got about 239 delegates while Hillary got only 133 delegates since March 15th. There are still 1661 pledged delegates in upcoming contests and there is certainly a probable chance for Sanders to overtake her. Since the media includes superdelegates in delegate count, Hillary will likely be declared the Presumptive Nominee by MSM on the night California votes, regardless whether she still leads Sanders in terms of pledged delegates.
Bernie has gotten 147 delegates in the last handful of caucuses and primaries. Hillary got 141 from Florida alone. He's doing just enough to stay but as I have said repeatedly, if New York/PA etc all voted in February like in 08, this would have been over.
New York, should she win, will be the dagger in Bernie. The Trump win will take longer to solidify should it occur at all.
I have lost some respect for Hillary in the last few weeks, because of the bad choices that both she and her campaign have made. It was a mistake for Hillary to have agreed to do the NY debate. She succumbed to the pressure, when in reality she was under no obligation to have a debate. She's been too nice this whole campaign season. I want a president who's going to be tough enough to stand up to those who try to pressure her into something. The ONLY reason Bernie wants to debate Hillary is to publicly spit out more of the "Wall Street/superpacs/special interests/blah blah blah" crap. Something I noticed in their last debate was that while Hillary was merely answering the questions that were asked by the moderators, Bernie was the one who started disparaging her instead of answering the questions. That's how he tries to win over voters -- by denigrating Hillary. He's a snake.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DomRep
He's doing just enough to stay but as I have said repeatedly, if New York/PA etc all voted in February like in 08, this would have been over.
Agreed. There was no point whatsoever in leaving the California primary for June. I believe Hillary will win NY, but if she loses, then her campaign deserves it. They put all their eggs in one basket by thinking that it didn't matter how all the other states voted, and they have been overly confident of their chances by thinking all they need to do is win just NY and California.
Hillary had agreed to an April debate in February, although the specific location and date had to be negotiated. Unfortunately, I think that Bernie's side jumped in early to set the bar saying she had to agree to NY. I think that's to his advantage because he needs the exposure there more than she does, and she would have been better served by a debate prior to the April 26th primaries.
But I also think that to anyone truly undecided, she shows to better advantage in debates. She appears articulate, in command of specific facts and details, composed, presidential. Bernie makes faces and rolls his eyes and jabs his fingers and waves his hands around and he tries to pivot every question back to his stump speech, his comfort zone. Of course his supporters think anything he does is wonderful, but most objective observers give her the win in pretty much every debate. She looks presidential in them, he doesn't. So I think she'll be fine.
I actually think she should throw down the challenge now, and challenge him to agree to another debate in PA later this month.
National (McClatchy-Marist) : Sanders +2
Pennsylvania (Qunnipiac) : Clinton +6
I think Sanders now has all the energy, momentum and most importantly, money to run an impressive campaign.
Even though Hillary still leads by about 210 delegates after taking into account Wisconsin and Nevada new results, Sanders got about 239 delegates while Hillary got only 133 delegates since March 15th. There are still 1661 pledged delegates in upcoming contests and there is certainly a probable chance for Sanders to overtake her. Since the media includes superdelegates in delegate count, Hillary will likely be declared the Presumptive Nominee by MSM on the night California votes, regardless whether she still leads Sanders in terms of pledged delegates.
Clinton is still a major favorite. This weekend is the Wyoming Caucus and next weekend the 2nd round in Colorado. I would expect Bernie to easily win the Wyoming Caucus (only 14 delegates are up for grabs) and pick up a few more in Colorado (he was just short of addong several more delegates on Caucus night, so likely adds a few more). This probably puts him back 195 delegats (give or take a couple) heading into NY.
She has a huge advantage and likely wins NY, but if he somehow pulls an upset all bets are off.
I have lost some respect for Hillary in the last few weeks, because of the bad choices that both she and her campaign have made. It was a mistake for Hillary to have agreed to do the NY debate. She succumbed to the pressure, when in reality she was under no obligation to have a debate. She's been too nice this whole campaign season. I want a president who's going to be tough enough to stand up to those who try to pressure her into something. The ONLY reason Bernie wants to debate Hillary is to publicly spit out more of the "Wall Street/superpacs/special interests/blah blah blah" crap. Something I noticed in their last debate was that while Hillary was merely answering the questions that were asked by the moderators, Bernie was the one who started disparaging her instead of answering the questions. That's how he tries to win over voters -- by denigrating Hillary. He's a snake.
Agreed. There was no point whatsoever in leaving the California primary for June. I believe Hillary will win NY, but if she loses, then her campaign deserves it. They put all their eggs in one basket by thinking that it didn't matter how all the other states voted, and they have been overly confident of their chances by thinking all they need to do is win just NY and California.
It sucks to say this, her campaign had to do this because she really has this enthusiasm problem. Some of Her donors and supporters will only donate to or turnout for her it it is necessary. That is probably the reason why she largely ignored the caucuses after Iowa and Nevada so Sanders could win by crushing margin. She needs to keep the race competitive so the donors must continue donating and voters will continue to turnout. Looking in hindsight, it worked perfectly. Her loss in New Hampshire propelled her to dominate in South Carolina and Super Tuesday. She then walked into Michigan as the prohibitive front runner with huge polling lead and then lost it there. Then this big warning sign gave her clean sweep on March 15th.
As to debate, it's necessary since sanders now has all the momentum. I think who gains from the debate depends on performance rather than being positive In default for Sanders.
It sucks to say this, her campaign had to do this because she really has this enthusiasm problem. Some of Her donors and supporters will only donate to or turnout for her it it is necessary. That is probably the reason why she largely ignored the caucuses after Iowa and Nevada so Sanders could win by crushing margin. She needs to keep the race competitive so the donors must continue donating and voters will continue to turnout. Looking in hindsight, it worked perfectly. Her loss in New Hampshire propelled her to dominate in South Carolina and Super Tuesday. She then walked into Michigan as the prohibitive front runner with huge polling lead and then lost it there. Then this big warning sign gave her clean sweep on March 15th.
As to debate, it's necessary since sanders now has all the momentum. I think who gains from the debate depends on performance rather than being positive In default for Sanders.
The enthusiasm gap is not a real thing, it's a social media thing.
Yes, there's no denying that Hillary's supporters are older and they aren't glued to their devices 24/7, ready to attack the way Sanders people are the second anything positive is said about Hillary or even vaguely negative about Bernie.
I will concede that Hillary needs to figure out how to attract support from younger voters and Independents. They have been Bernie's margin of victory and why it's not really that likely he will win in the upcoming closed primaries.
But Hillary's margins are strong in other demographics and her supporters are very enthusiastic. That's why she's millions of votes ahead.
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What BS. You come up with the most absurd things to try to justify your spin.