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I heard this poll was conducted April 5-6th and that Bernie Sanders was emailing his supporters the results. That doesn't bold well for him at all going into Tuesday if he has to email old polls when 10 polls have been taken since then all of them being at least +10 for Hillary.
Also, the poll is overestimating the white share which is at 74%....that'll be more like 50-55% at most. Blacks make up 15% of the state, and even more of the Dem electorate since they bloc vote 90%+ for dems yet only 12% black share are represented in this poll. Hispanic only 9%, but will likely make up around 15-20%.
So yes, the poll is very favorable to Sanders because of the demographics being represented on the poll which is not represented based on the electorate that will vote on Tuesday.
In other words, Sanders is screwed as the poll is overestimating the white share and underestimating the minority share which will go about 65-35 in her favor, possibly more.
4.6% margin of error with 95% confidence. This means Hillary can perform at nearly 60% or underperform at around 50%, and Sanders can perform at around 45% and underperform at 35%. Realistic margin can be anywhere from +5 Clinton to +25.
Nate Silver still predicts a Hillary win with 99% confidence as of this morning. Unless new polling comes out today, that isn't going to change.
Now I suppose we could have another Michigan where every single pollster got it wrong, in large part because of the oddness of the 2008 primary, but I think that's unlikely.
I think it's mostly going to be the margin that matters although I feel like right now the Sanders campaign is a spinning top alternating between "We're going to have an upset victory" and "We don't need to win NY to win the nomination" and I have no idea where they are finally going to land on that prediction.
Funny how the supposedly "despised" Democratic frontrunner has more votes than anybody else.
From the essay:
"If Hillary Clinton wins in November, it won’t happen because America has gotten over sexism or because the Democrats have forged a pathway to the future. It will be because she was nominated by the party that is dying slowly and somewhat politely, rather than the one that just blew itself up in public with a suicide vest. It will happen because many people will conclude they’d rather have a president they don’t particularly like or trust, but who is pretty much a known quantity, than a third-rate comic-book supervillain. Of such choices, history is made."
As I said in another thread, "better the Devil you know" I guess.
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