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If she does not win the majority of pledged delegates then, strictly speaking, it is a contested convention in that the party superdelegates will huddle and determine the winner. Having said that, Clinton will have a large majority of both pledged delegates and votes by then and any effort to give the nomination to Sanders would certainly be going against the will of the people. So, it's not happening. Sanders people need to get their heads around the idea that he is going to come up way short. Maybe they will see that after the east coast swing.
When it comes down to it, barring a major scandal whoever gets the majority of the pledged delegates will wind up getting the support of the super delegates and the nomination.
Right now Clinton has a little over 56% of the pledged delegates that have been awarded to this point. That combined with her lead in the polls in most the upcoming states makes things extremely difficult for Bernie. With that being said, if he somehow pulls off an upset in NY on Tuesday (which is obviously unlikely) it can really be a game changer and the momentum will likely carry over into the remaining states. Would it be enough to give him the delegate victories he would need in the upcoming states? Maybe, maybe not, but it would completely change the dynamics of the race.
If he doesn't pull off an upset and really doesn't gain much momentum into the states on the 26th, it pretty much makes catching her pledged delegate lead impossible and she will basically completely lock up the nomination barring a major scandal breaking.
Clintons' updated upcoming state visits:
Hillary Clinton : California -> Pennsylvania -> New York -> Connecticut -> New York
Bill Clinton : New York -> Connecticut -> Pennsylvania -> Florida
Chelsea Clinton : Connecticut -> Pennsylvania -> District of Columbia -> Indiana -> Kentucky -> District of Columbia
The superdelegates have always gone along with the candidate who wins the pledged delegates - which is what makes Bernie's argument that the super delegates should switch to him both absurd and hypocritical. Hillary is leading by well over 200 pledged delegates - while that's lower than the highest lead she ever held, which was over 300 pledged delegate, her current lead is still over twice as much as the highest pledged delegate lead Obama EVER held in 2008. And the supers switched over to him.
In addition, the Sanders campaign is spreading a very false narrative that a candidate needs 2383 PLEDGED delegates in order to not have a "contested" convention. No candidate has ever been held to obtaining 50% of total delegates solely from pledged delegates. While I feel absolutely certain the superdelegates see through this charade, unfortunately, his supporters do not.
You actually do have a contested convention in that scenario because the superdelegates are not bound.
Sanders flipped 2 delegates in Colorado today... It was 39-27 split on caucus night but he wins with 41-25 split... That's very terrible for Hillary if that trend continues on...
Sanders flipped 2 delegates in Colorado today... It was 39-27 split on caucus night but he wins with 41-25 split... That's very terrible for Hillary if that trend continues on...
Good for Sanders, lets hope he keeps it up, which we will see more of this happen if he can split or win New York.
Sanders flipped 2 delegates in Colorado today... It was 39-27 split on caucus night but he wins with 41-25 split... That's very terrible for Hillary if that trend continues on...
That is actually against people's wills on caucus night lol
But sanders fans embrace such rules when they add to their advantage
Caucuses are a multple step process. Sanders really didn't do that much better at the Convention then he did on Caucus night, but he was so close to adding two more delegates on Caucus night, the slight shift in his favor worked to his advantage.
You actually do have a contested convention in that scenario because the superdelegates are not bound.
Just because they aren't bound doesn't mean that they automatically change their endorsement just because Bernie wants to them to. If things play out the way they seemingly will, Hillary will retain a lead in both pledged delegates and popular vote. The fact that votes have to actually be cast isn't some novelty that gets called a "contested convention" - it's just the normal process. Going into the convention with over 2383 delegates consisting of a combination of pledged delegates allocated via the primary process and declared superdelegates makes a person the presumptive nominee of the Democratic party, and nothing that Bernie or his campaign says changes that.
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