Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Houston, Dallas: stats, estate)

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Today was, by far, Texas' worst day thus far. 760 new cases (26% growth in one day) and 15 deaths. To repeat what the President said today: The next few weeks are crucial. Even "just" 20% daily growth would put Texas at 170,000 cases three weeks from now.

[CDContribuitor]

Gov. Abbott - As of noon today, 42,929 tests were conducted statewide, out of which 3266 have been confirmed positive (which is 7.6% of tested cases are turning out to be positive). Out of 3266 positive cases, 11% have been hospitalized (others are quarantined in their own home), which brings the total COVID-19 hospitalizations to 360 hospitalizations. (If I proportionate those numbers to Dallas, that would be a total of 61 COVID-19 related hospitalizations in Dallas currently.) Most of the positive cases in Texas are cases that were tested before the social distancing measures went into effect.(Even though the positive results may show high in the last few days, many of these tests were conducted more than a week ago, however the results may have just been released. It is safe to assume that only 11% of the positive cases will require hospitalization, going forward, as well. )

Gov. Abbott also mentioned that only 2.6% of the total beds in Texas allocated for COVID-19 have been occupied. 97.4 % of the beds are available at this point for COVID-19 related hospitalizations. This does not mean that we have to lower our guard on 'social distancing'. We have to continue the measures of 'social distancing' until 4/30, to get the virus under control.

I will try and not respond back to any responses to this post, as I am simply stating the facts based on the numbers presented and arguments presented by Gov. Abbott. Any to-and-forth to this post may end up getting speculative.

[CDContribuitor]

Source for your data?

As per bing.com/covid, it is 389 new positive cases and 3 new deaths for 3/31.

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Today was, by far, Texas' worst day thus far. 760 new cases (26% growth in one day) and 15 deaths. To repeat what the President said today: The next few weeks are crucial. Even "just" 20% daily growth would put Texas at 170,000 cases three weeks from now.

[CDContribuitor]

I will advise not to use worldometers numbers. They seem to be using some modeling to report the numbers ahead of others. It does not seem like actual numbers. I did not see a single other source within US reporting total deaths in Texas as 56, except worldometers.

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

Source for your data?

As per bing.com/covid, it is 389 new positive cases and 3 new deaths for 3/31.

[lpepping]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

I will advise not to use worldometers numbers. They seem to be using some modeling to report the numbers ahead of others. It does not seem like actual numbers. I did not see a single other source within US reporting total deaths in Texas as 56, except worldometers.

The Johns Hopkins site has Texas deaths at 58.

[CDContribuitor]

From: "Johnson, Eric" <eric.johnson@dallascityhall.com>
Subject: City of Dallas COVID-19 Update: March 31
Date: April 1, 2020 at 12:16:49 AM CDT

Dear City of Dallas Partner:

The following is an update on the City of Dallas' planning and preparedness efforts regarding COVID-19 as of March 31, 2020. I hope you will check out the newsletter I sent out regarding the new emergency regulations and the press conference I held to give an update on actions the City of Dallas is planning to take to slow the spread of COVID-19.
Positive cases of COVID-19
631 in Dallas County – 82 are new
147 in Collin County
155 in Tarrant County
191 in Denton County
2 in Kaufman County
4 in Rockwall County
15 in Ellis County
Lab Reports

As of 5:00 p.m. the City of Dallas Office of Emergency Management has received a report from six labs. Below are the numbers for Tuesday, March 31, 2020:
289 COVID-19 tests
51 positive
231 negative

Below are testing from labs numbers to date:
Total tests to date by DCHHS
525
Total tests to date private labs*
2,633
Total negative tests to date*
2,628
Total active cases
631
Total deaths
13
Total recovered
2
*Numbers as of March 13, 2020 to date, since the Mayor’s order went into effect

Updates from Dallas County
Dallas County held a press conference at 6 p.m. and discussed the following:
The increase of clusters of COVID-19 cases appearing in nursing homes.
There are 26 COVID-19 cases associated with long-term care facilities, including two deaths, that have been reported within the past week.
Seventeen positive COVID-19 cases at the Dallas County Jail.
On March 31, Dallas County Health and Human Services (DCHHS) reported 82 additional positive cases of COVID-19, bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 631.
The twelfth and thirteenth deaths from COVID-19 are reported, including of a man in his 50s who was as resident of the city of Rowlett and a man in his 90s who was a resident of the city of Dallas. Both persons had other high-risk chronic health conditions.
The numbers of intensive care unit hospitalizations from COVID-19 from this past week have exceeded the peek week of ICU hospitalizations from influenza this past 2019-2020 season in Dallas County.
Please see attached summary. New cases are being reported as a daily aggregate, with a more detailed summary report updated Tuesdays and Fridays.
City Operations
Tonight it was confirmed a fourth Dallas Police Department officer has tested positive for COVID-19.
National Guardsmen started the setup of the Federal Medical Station (FMS) at the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center. Set up is expected to be done Thursday.
The medical community is currently meeting to discuss hospital capacity and a mission will be turned over to the FMS.
A 48-hour notice will be given when the FMS is needed for activation.
It is important to note, the FMS is not a traditional hospital. Please continue to refer to it as a Federal Medical Station (FMS).
Mayor Eric Johnson issued a new set of emergency regulations that require hospitals to report daily information to the City regarding bed and ventilator capacity.
The regulations also suspend board and commission meetings — excluding the Park Board and City Plan Commission and any other boards and commissions required to meet for pursuant to, or in compliance with, state or federal law — through April 29.
Any meetings during that time must take place via teleconference or video conference.
In addition, the mayor updated the City’s emergency regulations to match Dallas County’s recent orders, including the new order regarding long-term care facilities and construction.
The Park Rangers now have an emergency style hotline to get Rangers out to park facilities where people are gathering illegally and otherwise violating park rules.
The number is 214-671-7000. The hotline is operable through April 30 during regular Ranger hours, which are:
7:30 a.m. to 7 p.m. Monday to Friday
10 a.m. to 8 p.m. Saturday and Sunday
It was announced the federal government will discontinue support and supplies for the COVID-19 Community Based Testing Sites (CBTS) starting April 10.
The City and the County are currently assessing the resources and opportunity to continue to operate the CBTS beyond April 10. More information will be shared as it becomes available.
As always, if you have any questions, please reach out to my office.

Best regards,

Eric Johnson
Mayor
City of Dallas
eric.johnson@dallascityhall.com
(214) 670-3301

[CDContribuitor]

Worldometer claims that John Hopkins uses Worldometer's data.

Originally Posted by lpepping

The Johns Hopkins site has Texas deaths at 58.

[TheOverdog]

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83


Texas is currently reporting 41 deaths and 196 currently hospitalized, which does not include those who were in the hospital and recovered.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

I will advise not to use worldometers numbers. They seem to be using some modeling to report the numbers ahead of others. It does not seem like actual numbers. I did not see a single other source within US reporting total deaths in Texas as 56, except worldometers.

We went through this back on page 48. Here was my response then:

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Thus far, Worldmeter's daily figure has jived with the widely-reported figures for national deaths and new cases. In order for them to be right about the national daily figure but wrong about Texas, there'd have to be quite a coincidence going on. Even now, their global cases figure, USA cases figure, global deaths figure and USA deaths figure all jive perfectly with Bing (literally, one-to-one).

I just pulled up Bing's NY state figures, and it shows they had 583 total fatalities as of 3/25, but on 3/27, somehow that figure drops to 519. I doubt 64 people came back from the dead. I think Bing's aggregate data is good, but somehow their state-by-state stuff is faulty.

I will add that a second look at Bing's data shows it is wildly inaccurate in terms of daily, local death figures. According to Bing, Texas had zero deaths on 3/25. On 3/26, though, it had 18. Then it again had zero on 3/27. But on 3/28, it had four.....and just three more on 3/27. This is in conflict with virtually every other outlet. Texas did not have 18 deaths on a single day five days ago, and it didn't have just three or four a couple days ago.

They also show that Texas added zero new cases on 3/29. That is impossible. Take a look:





Clearly, Bing's daily, state-by-state figures are wrong.

That's not even the worst example. From 3/20 to 3/22, Bing actually shows that Texas decreased its number of confirmed cases. Does anyone really believe that Texas' number of confirmed cases went down by 18 over a two day stretch?





Worldometers shows their sources for data on the right-most column, and if their data is good enough for Johns Hopkins to use, it's good enough for me. And they are not using modeling. They show their sources, and they present data in a table form. Their daily case and death figures are just the sum of their state figures, and thus far, all of those have jived with nationally-reported numbers.

[zhappybird]

Every one please take a look at this video showing the research done by Japanese scientists, it shows how dangerous this virus could be, although most PPL here don't know Japanese, you can guess what they are talking about.



https://drive.google.com/open?id=1pY...l_SjhF_6nNHOWq


That is why people get infected after a dinner with another infected person, that is why people get infected when they ride a bus or subway or elevator, that is why people get infected when they participated a wedding or party. That is also showing why people need to wear masks when they go outside.



CDC finally realize the importance of wearing a mask and will make a new recommendation.



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/h...ronavirus.html


It is already late and people in US and European has already paid for their ignorance and arrogance, which is so sad. But if every one now starts to wear mask, the situation can quickly overturn just like czech republic, their situation is turing good after they wear masks