Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Dallas, Denton: utilities, zip codes)

[move4ward]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Food for thought: Coronavirus deaths run on about a two week lag from contracting the virus. I have seen varying reports, but it's believed that there's somewhere around a seven day lag between getting the virus and having a positive test for it (this is likely changing by the day). However, if that is true -- if there is an average lag of seven days between positive test and death for those who die -- our death toll figure today (268) is from newly-reported cases a week ago. New cases per day have nearly quadrupled in the last week (4582 to 17224), which means, even if no new people test positive, we should expect roughly a thousand deaths in the USA next Thursday or Friday.

Do you mean 1,000 deaths total or per day by next Thursday? US total deaths is already over 1,000. However, a jump from 268 to 1,000 daily deaths would seem a bit large.

[little elmer]

I honestly wish Denton County would just close us down for two weeks, get this thing done and come out clean, then we all could get back out there. I feel like we're keeping this thing going by our "essential" activity.

[ChristieP]

Originally Posted by little elmer

I honestly wish Denton County would just close us down for two weeks, get this thing done and come out clean, then we all could get back out there. I feel like we're keeping this thing going by our "essential" activity.

If you completely shut EVERYTHING down, as in not allowing anyone out of their house, people will not have food to eat. There are many people who do not have the funds to buy 2 weeks' worth of food, or the space to store it in their home. Other people do not know how to cook (yes, really), and they have to go buy prepared food to be able to eat.

[CDContribuitor]

If you are younger than 65, I would suggest that you should plan to go to Whole Foods at around 8:05 am. It should still be relatively lesser people at that time.

Originally Posted by Ralph_Kirk

When I was younger and on my way to work in the morning, I'd always see old guys already sitting in Dunkin Donut before dawn. I always wondered about that phenomenon.


Now that I'm old, I understand. We just can't sleep that long anymore. For old men, it's a prostate thing--our prostates keep waking us up.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by jpushiys

Great Post.

One possible correction - I believe the curve we are trying to flatten is the new infections curve, not the active cases. I don't think that curve is flattening either, so ur graph is directionally correct for now and the scenario is still dire.

The two are highly related, but you're right....here's our new cases chart:

Originally Posted by move4ward

Do you mean 1,000 deaths total or per day by next Thursday? US total deaths is already over 1,000. However, a jump from 268 to 1,000 daily deaths would seem a bit large.

I mean 1,000 deaths per day. It isn't high. Deaths today are a product of new cases a week ago. New cases have gone up nearly 4x in the last week (see graph above). Deaths will like go up 4x over the next week. There are caveats to this data, though, that were mentioned in my post.

[move4ward]

Originally Posted by ChristieP

If you completely shut EVERYTHING down, as in not allowing anyone out of their house, people will not have food to eat. There are many people who do not have the funds to buy 2 weeks' worth of food, or the space to store it in their home. Other people do not know how to cook (yes, really), and they have to go buy prepared food to be able to eat.

It's just not practical to shut down an entire county. Without 1 hr Coronavirus test to screen people, Denton county will have new infections from DFW airport travelers and employee.

With those new quick turnaround Coronavirus tests coming in April, it will be a game changer.

[CDContribuitor]

I personally think that this should have been coordinated at the DFW metro level and have all counties enforce shelter-at-home at the same time. One of the premise of the shelter-at-home is that viruses on the surfaces at the various public places will die if it does not get an opportunity to spread. A coordinated shelter-at-home across the metro would have a better outcome than the ones that we are seeing.


However, I also think that the above is much more important for a city like NYC or a Chicago than to DFW.


Cities within DFW are not projected for outbreaks as per current data. It does not mean we have to get our guards down, yet.


Chicago, Detroit and New Orleans are projected to be the new hotspots.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/healt...day/index.html

Originally Posted by little elmer

I honestly wish Denton County would just close us down for two weeks, get this thing done and come out clean, then we all could get back out there. I feel like we're keeping this thing going by our "essential" activity.

[unknown00]

How often are pple honestly going grocery shopping or leaving house for small errands??

[jpushiys]

Originally Posted by unknown00

How often are pple honestly going grocery shopping or leaving house for small errands??

We stopped making grocery trips. We order online once a week, and tip the delivery guy 15%. Our small contribution to the economy....

[Capitalprophets]

Originally Posted by unknown00

How often are pple honestly going grocery shopping or leaving house for small errands??

Every 3-4 weeks if possible. I didn't hoard.