Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Denton, Post: airport, delivery)

[RJ312]

Originally Posted by move4ward

You make good points about business travelers. I have met many PWC consultant that flew in weekly. They rarely had time to enjoy the city, while staying in DFW.

From a disease spreading perspective, living in an area where business travel is much more common than personal recreational travel, business travel is preferable.

As a local, I have enjoyed non-locals not clogging up our nightlife.

If we are thinking about times of greater stability, I don't think DFW will ever become a hub of recreational travel. The Fort Worth Stockyards and the Kennedy Museum are probably the most notable tourist attractions here, and those tourist sites are nothing like Yellowstone or Las Vegas. When those DFW sites get visits from out of towners, it is usually out of towners visiting their DFW area family members. People go to Yellowstone, the Colorado mountain resort towns, or Las Vegas regardless of whether they have family near those areas.

DFW often needs to host an event like a Super Bowl or Final Four to get a boost in recreational travel.

It is also good that DFW is not quite as economically linked to tourism as much as Las Vegas, though we have significant links in our local economy to the travel industry. Coronavirus has had a much greater impact on Las Vegas' economy than DFW's. However, since DFW serves as the corporate HQ for 2 major airlines (American and Southwest), DFW will feel impact. I foresee some white collar level layoffs at HQs of the airlines, if they haven't already happened. Additionally, a number of customer facing flight crews do reside in DFW, and they have had cutbacks if not layoffs at this point.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Food for thought: Coronavirus deaths run on about a two week lag from contracting the virus. I have seen varying reports, but it's believed that there's somewhere around a seven day lag between getting the virus and having a positive test for it (this is likely changing by the day). However, if that is true -- if there is an average lag of seven days between positive test and death for those who die -- our death toll figure today (268) is from newly-reported cases a week ago. New cases per day have nearly quadrupled in the last week (4582 to 17224), which means, even if no new people test positive, we should expect roughly a thousand deaths in the USA next Thursday or Friday.

This is far from exact (for starters, the increase is much more complex than a simple 4x), and our rate of testing has changed significantly in the last week or so. One additional caveat is that, if these numbers are correct, we would be looking at a death rate of over 5% (268 deaths from 4582 cases). That's much higher than we should expect. A more probable explanation is that the daily case figures from a week ago were very short due to a lack of tests. I hope that is the case, and if our tested positive figures are more accurate today (which might not be the case), that 1,000 figure could be much smaller. The big unknown here is testing outside of the two or three big hot zones. However, we can arrive at a similar number simply by looking at the death totals themselves. One week ago, March 19, we had 56 deaths. That moved to 268 in a week, which is roughly a 5x increase (again, the actual model is more complex)....giving us 1200-1400 for next Thursday or Friday.

However, as you probably know, our active case chart is in no way flattening out. It is not a stretch to say that we could be looking at upwards of 1500-2000 deaths per day, every day, right here in the US....within 10-14 days or so. Even that might be conservative. I've predicted to multiple people that we will have 9/11 death totals (~3,000) on a daily basis at peak. I hope I'm wrong.

Our active case chart, which I wish would be shown on the news more frequently:




I really wish people who are outside of the big hot zones like NYC or NJ or CA or Louisiana would take it very seriously. Saying these areas haven't been hit as hard and can probably open up sooner (which I have heard daily on various news channels) is just plain dumb. They are just earlier on their trajectory, and them taking a serious approach and practicing social distancing is what will keep us from having numbers like Italy's.

Edit to add: One last thing. The table below shows figures for yesterday's (Thursday, since the data is on East Coast time) daily case gains for the "up and comer" states. Look at how many jumped by 25-35%, including Texas. 433 of Texas' 1588 cases were added yesterday. These are not small states, either. Anyone who thinks this thing is fizzling or hasn't been that bad is in for a rude awakening.

[CDContribuitor]

Not sure. It may be 65 and older. However, I do no think they may be strictly enforcing it. I do not think they are checking your ID for your age. They rely on our self regulation. I personally would not go between 7 and 8 am, if I am not 65 or older.

Originally Posted by cordata

How old do you have to be to be considered a Senior ? Is it Medicare rules (65) or AARP rules (50) ?

[unknown00]

How often are pple honestly going grocery shopping or leaving house for small errands??

[Skipito]

Every day here. Even if it’s just to pick up take out or something like that. I’ll do at least one trip.

Then I wash my hands regularly and I’ve always been a “personal bubble” person by nature so I don’t crowd folks.

[jpushiys]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Food for thought: Coronavirus deaths run on about a two week lag from contracting the virus. I have seen varying reports, but it's believed that there's somewhere around a seven day lag between getting the virus and having a positive test for it (this is likely changing by the day). However, if that is true -- if there is an average lag of seven days between positive test and death for those who die -- our death toll figure today (268) is from newly-reported cases a week ago. New cases per day have nearly quadrupled in the last week (4582 to 17224), which means, even if no new people test positive, we should expect roughly a thousand deaths in the USA next Thursday or Friday.

......

However, as you probably know, our active case chart is in no way flattening out.


....

Great Post.

One possible correction - I believe the curve we are trying to flatten is the new infections curve, not the active cases. I don't think that curve is flattening either, so ur graph is directionally correct for now and the scenario is still dire.

[NTXPerson]

I wanted to share the infection map that Dallas County is sharing for their zip codes (first time trying to include a tweet, so I hope it shows up). It is pretty widespread across the county with the most cases in the zip code 75225.

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/statu...14406303371264

[stephwin]

Originally Posted by unknown00

How often are pple honestly going grocery shopping or leaving house for small errands??

I drop my kids off at daycare daily, but I'm only driving there and back. Parents aren't allowed inside. My husband does a grocery run once a week and picks up anything else we need that is essential. He's the sacrificial lamb of our family, so to speak. My kids and I haven't been inside any store in about 2.5 weeks.

[Exult.Q36]

Kudos to the Potters House for providing hot meals to healthcare workers and first responders across DFW.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavi...nders/2340084/

[Ralph_Kirk]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

Not sure. It may be 65 and older. However, I do no think they may be strictly enforcing it. I do not think they are checking your ID for your age. They rely on our self regulation. I personally would not go between 7 and 8 am, if I am not 65 or older.

When I was younger and on my way to work in the morning, I'd always see old guys already sitting in Dunkin Donut before dawn. I always wondered about that phenomenon.


Now that I'm old, I understand. We just can't sleep that long anymore. For old men, it's a prostate thing--our prostates keep waking us up.