Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Dallas, Katy: unemployed, rating)

[tmtex]

Originally Posted by Rakin

Clay Jenkins just extended the Stay at Home until May 20.

How about we make this decision in a few weeks ?

He is super excited over this

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

There's little chance DFW will be able to open up before May 20. I can't imagine peak virus (peak active cases, not peak new daily cases) happening significantly before May 1. The back side of this will most likely look a lot like the front side -- pandemics are typically normally distributed, which means there's a symmetrical bell curve for infections. That means that if a shelter in place order was needed six weeks before peak virus, it will probably be needed for six weeks after peak virus, assuming some miracle treatment doesn't happen somewhere in there.

[RJ312]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

There's little chance DFW will be able to open up before May 20. I can't imagine peak virus (peak active cases, not peak new daily cases) happening significantly before May 1. The back side of this will most likely look a lot like the front side -- pandemics are typically normally distributed, which means there's a symmetrical bell curve for infections. That means that if a shelter in place order was needed six weeks before peak virus, it will probably be needed for six weeks after peak virus, assuming some miracle treatment doesn't happen somewhere in there.

Let's say for instance that peak active cases is April 25. That means that we would be sheltering in place through June 6? That's how I read it. May 20 might not be the end of this.

[Sunbather]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

There's little chance DFW will be able to open up before May 20. I can't imagine peak virus (peak active cases, not peak new daily cases) happening significantly before May 1. The back side of this will most likely look a lot like the front side -- pandemics are typically normally distributed, which means there's a symmetrical bell curve for infections. That means that if a shelter in place order was needed six weeks before peak virus, it will probably be needed for six weeks after peak virus, assuming some miracle treatment doesn't happen somewhere in there.

Exactly.

Again, we are 4-6 weeks minimum from any given point in time. And the clock doesn't even start ticking on that 4-6 weeks until we can show a clear and demonstrative downward trend.

Unless officials had significantly different information than everything available to the public, I didn't expect we would be able to come off shelter in place anytime in May, so a May 20th extension is only fitting. Pushing it out 2-3 weeks only to push it again is pointless.

[Sunbather]

Originally Posted by RJ312

Let's say for instance that peak active cases is April 25. That means that we would be sheltering in place through June 6? That's how I read it. May 20 might not be the end of this.

Correct. It will likely get extended.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by RJ312

Let's say for instance that peak active cases is April 25. That means that we would be sheltering in place through June 6? That's how I read it. May 20 might not be the end of this.

Correct. We own a non-essential, public facing business and at this point are preparing for a 6/15 “soft open” and business back above 60% of normal by around August 1. And I would say possibility that those dates move our another 4-6 weeks.

[Katana49]

I don't think some of you thinking that May 20th is too far grasp the timeline of this virus. Even if you have no symptoms at all, but if you were told to self isolate TODAY, the timeframe for symptoms to appear is 14 days. That brings us to April 17th for you to just be cleared if you didn't have the virus. But if you did, you're looking at another 3 weeks minimum probably if you're healthy to come down with it, recover, and be cleared of any risk of contagion. So that brings us to May 8th, and that's assuming the clock started today for a hypothetical case. We're not even at the peak yet, which is tentatively projected to be in about 2 weeks last I read.



This will get pushed past May 20th, mark my words.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Yes, I think we are looking at the kind of timeline the last couple of posters have mentioned. New York hasn't even peaked in terms of new daily cases yet. Sure, New York might get this much worse than DFW, but that doesn't mean the shape of New York's curve looks different. They are taking serious shelter in place action, and I'm not sure their time from onset to peak virus will be longer than DFW's.

There are three major markers to keep in mind:
Peak New Daily Cases: This will come first, and it will be the first sign that the downhill is in sight.
Peak Daily Deaths: This should come about a week after the first marker.
Peak Active Cases: To me, this is peak virus. This could be weeks after number one. This is the point at which the number of cases is at its max. Italy possibly hit peak new daily cases two weeks ago, but they still haven't hit peak virus yet. They could be another week or two away.

I think an optimistic view is that DFW is 3-4 weeks away from number one (peak new daily cases). I can't imagine someone arguing it's sooner than that. Let's say it's April 30. That means peak virus might not be until May 20 or later. That means we still have 14 weeks that are as bad as or worse than today (7 weeks leading up to May 20 and 7 weeks after).

Of course, there are lots of variables in there, but that seems like the sort of timeline people should be expecting if the optimistic case of peak new daily cases happening in April occurs. If it's later, all of these dates will be pushed back.

[Sunbather]

Yes. 2-3 weeks more, when we are still climbing, buys us nothing. It's akin to my clients setting unrealistic deadlines.

You have 8 weeks of work (already accounting for OT to bring it down from a 10-12 week process) and they still want it in 3 weeks. You say it takes 8 but they say give it to us in 3. You scramble to get something put together in 3 weeks and then they realize it doesn't have all the info they need and say to check in in 2 more weeks. You scramble again and add more detail and re-work things to check in at week 5 and they still realize that it needs more detail and push it out again. Finally at week 8 you deliver a product that is not quite as good as it could have been if the just let you work for 8 weeks straight with an efficient process.

Continually setting unrealistic deadlines and pushing them back just causes undue confusion and unrest in the community every time they re-review and have to address the public to push them back, possibly causing more people to become extra unhappy at every step and want to protest the decree. Just go ahead and rip the band-aid off and take the realistic long approach. Let our officials focus on the bigger picture for a bit. And then, if things take an early turn and we're able to deliver early somehow, great.

I feel like anyone thinking we have a chance to come off shelter in place in 2-3 weeks just isnt seeing the bigger picture or is privy to information I certainly haven't seen.

[Sunbather]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Yes, I think we are looking at the kind of timeline the last couple of posters have mentioned. New York hasn't even peaked in terms of new daily cases yet. Sure, New York might get this much worse than DFW, but that doesn't mean the shape of New York's curve looks different. They are taking serious shelter in place action, and I'm not sure their time from onset to peak virus will be longer than DFW's.

There are three major markers to keep in mind:
Peak New Daily Cases: This will come first, and it will be the first sign that the downhill is in sight.
Peak Daily Deaths: This should come about a week after the first marker.
Peak Active Cases: To me, this is peak virus. This could be weeks after number one. This is the point at which the number of cases is at its max. Italy possibly hit peak new daily cases two weeks ago, but they still haven't hit peak virus yet. They could be another week or two away.

I think an optimistic view is that DFW is 3-4 weeks away from number one (peak new daily cases). I can't imagine someone arguing it's sooner than that. Let's say it's April 30. That means peak virus might not be until May 20 or later. That means we still have 14 weeks that are as bad as or worse than today (7 weeks leading up to May 20 and 7 weeks after).

Of course, there are lots of variables in there, but that seems like the sort of timeline people should be expecting if the optimistic case of peak new daily cases happening in April occurs. If it's later, all of these dates will be pushed back.

I agree. My thought process right now is that anywhere in the 12-16 week range is realistic given where we currently are and the information available from other locations.