[wavehunter007]

For those intrested...here is what our local DEP says about fire season in Connecticut:

Forest Fire Weather Information
Red Flag Warnings
Red Flag Warnings are issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), which predicts weather and forecasts warnings nationwide. Connecticut is divided between three different National Weather Service stations. Predictions for Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties are made in Taunton, MA; predictions for Litchfield County are made in Albany, NY and predictions for Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex and New London counties are made in Brookhaven, NY.

A Red Flag warning is a warning to the fire fighting community that if there is a fire, the weather conditions can be expected to cause erratic fire behavior. Red Flag warnings are not a fire danger rating and they are not synonymous with High, Very High or Extreme fire danger. Red Flag warnings are issued when winds will be sustained or there will be frequent gusts above a certain threshold (normally 25 mph). In addition, relative humidity needs to be below 30% and precipitation for the previous 5 days has to have been less than 1/4-inch.

Forest Fire Danger Rating
The DEP Division of Forestry issues Forest Fire Danger Ratings for Connecticut. A National Fire Danger Rating system that utilizes two indexes is used in Connecticut. The "spread" of a fire is predicted with the Spread Index, which is a numeric rating that corresponds with how fast a fire travels in 'Chains per Hour' (a chain is 66'). For example, if a prediction is made that the Spread Index will be 19, it means the fire is predicted to spread 1254 feet (19 x 66') in an hour.

In addition, there are three vegetative conditions that may exist.

The first stage is a cured stage, meaning the fuels are in a cured state, exposed to full sunlight (early springtime).
The second stage is a transition stage (late spring/fall), meaning the upper tree canopy is partially leafed out
The third stage indicates full leaf out (summer).
There are also three very important weather factors affecting fire start, spread and the fire weather danger.

Wind - the most important factor; it dries out fuels and drives the fire.
Relative humidity - affects fuel moisture.
Precipitation.
Forest Fire Seasons in Connecticut


Spring Fire Season: Normally mid-March to mid-May
This is the time of the year when deciduous trees are bare and the warm spring sun heats up the forest fuels. Forest fuels are made up of anything that burns; typically grasses, leaves, twigs, branches and decaying material in the soil. As the days grow longer and sun gets hotter, the fuels that are most exposed dry out very fast. Grasses, twigs, and very small branches are called '1-hour fuels'. That is, they can take on atmospheric conditions within an hour. Consequently we can receive precipitation and if the sun comes out and a breeze picks up, the fine fuels can be available for burning within an hour. Larger fuels take longer to dry out. Typically fires that start this time of the year burn just the surface leaves and can spread very fast. Generally they cause little, long term damage to the forest. During the spring, the Spread Index usually drives the fire danger. Wind is most critical.

Summer Fire Season: Normally mid-May through September

After the trees are fully leaved out we enter a different fire season. The Build Up Index is the driving factor with past precipitation (drought) being critical. Forest fuels dry slowly because of lower temperatures in the shaded woods with correspondingly higher humidity. Remember, temperature and relative humidity have an inverse relationship. The vegetation is growing and sucking moisture from the soil. When the woods get dry enough and a fire gets started the fire tends to grow more slowly than a spring fire but tends to burn deeper into the ground. Fires that burn deeper into the ground burn organic matter in the soil (including tree roots), are more difficult to suppress, and cause extensive mortality to vegetation.

[Cambium]

Was texting while walking dog and something strange happened. Fingers started getting cold. I Forgot what it was like to actually be in the 20s. LOL!

Bridgeport, CT(BDR) has had only 37 days that went below 30 degrees as the low since December 1st. . Thats only 37 of last 96 days...In Winter. I'll try to get a total for other stations when I have some time.

I remember when we used to see this type of forecast for Connecticut in Winter. https://www.city-data.com/forum/23279602-post661.html

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I've seen it in past winters over the years, but not many. We've had so little precip this winter that everything is much drier than usual.

I just checked NWS Bridgeport:

Last year (2011) we had 5 inches of precip...

This year we had only 1.58 inches of precip...


So you're right, everything is bone dry as we head into spring. If this March stays dry, April could really see alot of brush fires in the Tri-State area I think.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

More anecdotal, but the streams and rivers along Route 7 remain very elevated.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

More anecdotal, but the streams and rivers along Route 7 remain very elevated.

Snowpack up north melting. Dont forget, places north of us got up to 18" of fresh snow this past week. And I found out there is 48-60" of snow at the high peaks of adirondaks (most likely VT,MA high peaks have a lot of snow as well), so probably why rivers are flowing harder and higher. (good eye for catching that, I didnt notice yet).

[Wilton2ParkAve]

I hear you on the snowpack angle, but these rivers have been very swollen since the August/Sept storms.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Wave: Your precip numbers are way off.


BPT has received 5.04" of precip (mostly rain) since Jan 1. Not 1.58".

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

BPT has received 5.04" of precip (mostly rain) since Jan 1. Not 1.58".

Correct. 5.04" since Jan. 1st.

Here's a view of how it looks since January 1st compared to Jan 1 - March 31, 2011. Coastal CT was at 10" by end of March last year, Litchfield nearing 14" of liquid.

Remember the March Flooding last year?

Anyway - Looking at this years liquid totals Fairfield as a whole is under 4" but Coastal New London county is near 6".

[Cambium]

So this time of year I start looking for extreme on the other end. We wont see 70s this week but we'll probably see 60 a couple times. Then after this weekend, next week features more 50s-60s as common.

This was the warmest day on the latest Euro12z. Now we'll start to see the coast be cooler than inland because of the cooler water influence.

Wednesday March 13th. (Loong range, anything can change)


Other thing to note is latest GFS wants to throw some snow down around the 15th. GFS is still nuts. lol We'll see if it keeps showing up.

There's just nothing happening next couple weeks. Couple of rain events and a weak coastal low rain event.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

Wave: Your precip numbers are way off.


BPT has received 5.04" of precip (mostly rain) since Jan 1. Not 1.58".

No, I meant just in Feb.

This past Feb NWS Bridgeport reported just 1.58 inches of precip….compared to last Feb when they reported 4.36 inches for the month.

It should get interesting in the next couple of days brush fire wise; According to NWS - winds on Wed/Thru should be out of the south at 15 mph gusting to 25 mph, with the dry ground, strong sun, and very low humidties, that seems like a good recipe for at least some brush fires. I had to go all the way to Stamford today, and there is yellow grass on the sides of I-95 that looks like it’s in Yuma (read very dry – lol). So I can see their concern, one spark, and the wind will really get things going.