[Cambium]

***** UPDATE BLIZZARD JANUARY 27, 2011 *****

LAST MODEL IS SHOWING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHEAST / NEW ENGLAND

I am just telling you what the models are showing me as I do all the time, dont jump on my back now. Storm explodes and cold air is in place.

More details in morning... Notice how the trend is going.. Few more models to verify this still.

[7express]

Yay, already snowing

I didn't think was supposed to start until late tonight into TOMORROW morning?? As if waking up at 6:30 wasn't early enough, once I heard the plows go through at 5:25, thought that was time to get up.

[Cambium]

**UPDATE BLIZZARD JANUARY 27, 2011**

Snow and sleet should start Wednesday evening (after 7pm) because of a layer of warmth in the atmosphere and then all snow after midnight till midday Thursday and very heavy as storm explodes and cold air rushes into it.. Based on what I'm seeing, I'm calling for 2 inches of snow and sleet then over half foot of snow 6-8" widespread and there will be a coastal town that can recieve up to a foot of snow.

One model has it all snow for the entire duration which would mean 8-12" widespread. I dont know about that...thats too bold to call. The heaviest snow will fall in a short time so visibility will be near zero sometimes Thursday morning

Looks like No School again for kids.

From NOAA
National Weather Service Text Product Display

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
AS HIGH PRES RETREATS TO THE N ON WED...A COASTAL STORM WILL TAKE
SHAPE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT IT TRACKS NE OVER OR JUST OUTSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK AND
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK NORMALLY MEANS AN ALL
SNOW EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMING ALOFT WITH A MIX/CHANGEOVER AT THE
COAST. THE SREF IS THE WARMEST AND WAS DISREGARDED. THE NAM KEEPS
THE WHOLE EVENT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
INDICATE ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF SN/PL/RA MIX IN NJ/NYC/LI...POSSIBLY
COASTAL CT.

SINCE CONFIDENCE OF REACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW...IS AT LEAST 50
PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON
COUNTY AND WESTERN PASSAIC...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH LATER
TODAY...BUT THE DURATION AND TIMING OF THE MIXED PRECIP IS WHAT IS
TROUBLING. TOTAL QPF IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAIN...SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR DETAILS.

WAA PRECIP SHOULD RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WED.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN THE
BEST TIMING FOR THE MIX IS BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM. EVENING RUSH ON
WED AND THU MORNING COULD BE TREACHEROUS. COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN
ON A N-NW FLOW AS THE STORM DEPARTS CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. IT APPEARS THAT IF WARNING
CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT THE COAST...IT WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECT TO OCCUR...AGAIN
BETWEEN 7PM AND 1AM...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW.

FORECAST IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS INCREASE ON WED AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES...BUT APPEAR TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WED EVE FOR LI AND SE CT ATTM.

THERE IS CURRENTLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT WATER IT THE
SNOW COVER. WITH POTENTIAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT ADDED
ON TO THIS FOR EASTERN SESSIONS (LONG ISLAND AND SE
CT)...PONDING/URBAN/BASEMENT FLOODING ARE A CONCERN. IN
ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ON FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES IS
SIGNIFICANT.

ENDING IS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER LIGHT SN
ON THURSDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[Cambium]

There's the baby being born down south... Look at all that precip.

You can see the little clipper system over us thats brough light snow to the area overnight...

[Tin Knocker]

So wheres the snow falling right now coming from?

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by Tin Knocker

So wheres the snow falling right now coming from?

The sky.

[mels]

Originally Posted by Tin Knocker

So wheres the snow falling right now coming from?

I believe it is part of the "warm" air that has been filtering in overnight with moisture. It isn't related to the storm forming into the nor'easter.

[Tin Knocker]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

The sky.

Dangitall I'da never thunk a that.

Still coming down thick & heavy around Norwalk, looks like about 1.5" of light fluffy stuff. Took me an hour to get from Southport back to East Norwalk the back way from over by Sasco river Rd thru Greens farms etc.
Very slick roads.

[7express]

I love snow and all, but I'm getting sick of it, and its not even the end of January.

A nice snow storm every 5 or 6 weeks that brings a 6-12 inches is fine with me, but we've had a storm every week since Christmas. Its getting frusterating. The poor kids in the school systems will be in school until July 20 at the this rate.

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by Tin Knocker

Dangitall I'da never thunk a that.

Still coming down thick & heavy around Norwalk, looks like about 1.5" of light fluffy stuff. Took me an hour to get from Southport back to East Norwalk the back way from over by Sasco river Rd thru Greens farms etc.
Very slick roads.

Wife took 95 this morning to Stamford from Branford. Took her 2 hours 25 minutes.