[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Although more than even I expected you and all the "sensationalist wishcasters" at Accuweather, etc. have actually been close to if not on the mark with all of these crazy storms..

Yeap.. close and on the mark... Thank you.. thats the easy part telling you when a potential storm is going to hit... but the hard , yet fun part, is watching not just the model tracks but what every other variable is doing.. Put it this way... I'm not going to tell you a storm is coming Tuesday February 1st...there's nothing for that day.. I will tell you there's a little something for Saturday night Sunday morning of snow.

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

If we really got 2 feet of snow out of what's coming this week, I believe all 3 places would shatter the record for most snow in any month (which for NYC was already done Feb. of last year and that record stood for over a century!). Central Park would have over 40" of snow in one month, and considering that 30" has only been cracked twice in the 141 year history of weather records there (and before last Feb. it was in the 1800s), I think it's unlikely.

Yeap again.. Throw records out the window.. Earth is 6 billion years old, our records are 100 years old...

[Cambium]

**UPDATE STORM JANUARY 27, 2011**

Looking at this latest run..I am starting to lean on nothing or rain.. so some of you may get your wish.. Dont like how things are setting up.. By 11am tomorrow we'll have a better grip...right now I'm 50% rain, 30% nothing, 20% all snow,

If thats the case...I think we may have broken the coastal snowstorm pattern for now...

[HeadedWest]

In case you don't already know about this, I thought I'd mention that you can get a little summary of the NOAA meteorologists' thinking about the near future. This is what they're looking at, but often they don't put it in the official forecast because the probabilities aren't firm enough.

Start by going to NOAA's National Weather Service and enter your city and state in the box at the upper left (your zip code works, too). That brings up the forecast for the area that includes your town. On that page you'll see the official forecast, which won't usually say much dramatic for events more than a couple of days out (because it's basically impossible to forecast more than a few days into the future).

Scroll down to the bottom and, on the right, you'll see "Additional Forecasts and Information". There you click on "Forecast Discussion" and you'll see some of what the mets are thinking about the upcoming period. Some of it is encoded in wx-language, but the oddball words or phrases are displayed as hyperlinks so you can click those and bring up a window with the definition of the term.

The key phrase in this discussion now is: STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

Notice the weather guys haven't discovered lower case letters yet.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by HeadedWest

In case you don't already know about this, I thought I'd mention that you can get a little summary of the NOAA meteorologists' thinking about the near future. This is what they're looking at, but often they don't put it in the official forecast because the probabilities aren't firm enough.

Start by going to NOAA's National Weather Service and enter your city and state in the box at the upper left (your zip code works, too). That brings up the forecast for the area that includes your town. On that page you'll see the official forecast, which won't usually say much dramatic for events more than a couple of days out (because it's basically impossible to forecast more than a few days into the future).

Scroll down to the bottom and, on the right, you'll see "Additional Forecasts and Information". There you click on "Forecast Discussion" and you'll see some of what the mets are thinking about the upcoming period. Some of it is encoded in wx-language, but the oddball words or phrases are displayed as hyperlinks so you can click those and bring up a window with the definition of the term.

The key phrase in this discussion now is: STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

Notice the weather guys haven't discovered lower case letters yet.

This is part of what I mean when I refer to the OKX and BOX websites. OKX covers coastal CT, BOX the rest of the state. Here are links direct to the discussion section:

If you live in Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex, or New London counties, you can go to this site: National Weather Service Text Product Display

If you live in the rest of CT, this site will refer to the weather discussion for your area: National Weather Service Text Product Display

[renovating]

Originally Posted by Cambium

From National Weather Service..

Originally Posted by renovating

Where are you seeing this? I went on the National Weather Service website and here is what is forecasted for Fairfield next week:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Originally Posted by Cambium

I provided a link as I always do to back up my statement unlike ....

Yes, I see that but when I went on the link, I don't see any forecast for a big snowstorm. I see a 40% chance of precip on Tuesday and 50% on Wednesday.

So we are going to the same link but seeing very different info.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by HeadedWest

The key phrase in this discussion now is: STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

It always says that until about 3-4 days before..However the Dec. 26th blizzard it said something like "confidence high on an East Coast Storm, Precip to be determined as days go on" 5 days before!

They will rarely tell you what "each" model says. they give a generalized breakdown which is cool and convienant.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by renovating

So we are going to the same link but seeing very different info.

Not sure,...try this... updated now..
National Weather Service Text Product Display

Scroll down to "long term discussion"

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* BITTER COLD MONDAY
* SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE NIGHT
* SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT

MON...
CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO LIFT NE. HOWEVER...ARCTIC HIGH
PRES SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SHALLOW INVERSION SETTING UP SO
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST AND THIS IS
CLEARLY REFLECTED IN THE VERY COLD 2M TEMPS. MAXES WILL STRUGGLE
INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN. LINGERING WIND IN THE MORNING
CONBINED WITH SUBZERO TEMPS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILL TEMPS. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE BUT
A FEW FLURRIES MAY CLIP THE OUTER CAPE IN THE MORNING.

MON NIGHT...
VERY TRICKY MIN TEMP FORECAST AS THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE
OVERSPREADING SNE. MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO COLD UNLESS CLOUDS ARE
DELAYED SO WE USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS.
SUBZERO MINS IN THE INTERIOR BUT LIKELY HOLDING IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS COASTAL PLAIN. COLDEST TEMPS FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT THEN
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

TUE...
ARCTIC HIGH RETREATS TO THE E WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
DEVELOPING SE FLOW. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS TO START WILL PROVIDE
GOOD OVERRUNNUING SURFACE SO SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUM. TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE 20S WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED AND WED NIGHT...
THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE FOR THE COASTAL STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
LOW THIS FAR OUT. COMPLEX SPILT FLOW REGIME AND IT DOES APPEAR
PHASING WILL NOT OCCUR WITH SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THE DOMINANT FEATURE
FOR SNE. GGEM IS AN INLAND OUTLIER AS IT LIFTS CONFLUENT FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH AND BUILDS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALLOWING FOR AN INSIDE
RUNNER. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. GFS IS
THE FURTHEST OFFSHORE WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK WHILE ECMWF/UKMET
TRACK LOW ACROSS THE BENCHMARK. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE
UKMET/ECMWF BENCHMARK TRACK WITH MOST OF THE MEMBERS CLUSTERED IN
THIS REGION ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS INSIDE AND A FEW
OFFSHORE. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT WE WILL LEAN TOWARD ECMWF
WHICH HAS SHOWN BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG ALL THE MODELS.

WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WED/WED NIGHT KEEPING ALL SNOW
IN THE INTERIOR BUT RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE COAST. EVEN WITH A LOW
TRACK NEAR THE BENCHMARK...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FLOW WILL WARM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING CHG TO RAIN NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST. ALSO...UNLIKE THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH AND NOT CRASHING SO IT WILL TAKE AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOR ALL
SNOW. A TRACK CLOSE TO THE COAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND SNOW TO ICE/RAIN IN THE INTERIOR. THIS IS STILL
4 DAYS AWAY SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS FURTHER MODEL CHANGES ARE
LIKELY.

WIND MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR ALONG THE COAST WITH ECMWF SHOWING
A 60+ KT LLJ. ASTRO TIDES ARE REALTIVELY LOW BUT IF THIS STORM
TRACKS NEAR THE BENCHMARK...STORM SURGE AND WAVE ACTION WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

[Cambium]

Litchfield, Hartford, Tolland, Windham, Northern Fairfield, Northern NewHaven, Northern Middlesex and Northern New London should stay snow...

Its amazing yesterday models were showing blizzard for all of CT...today they are all mixed senarios...thats why no one person can make a forecast and say thats what will happen. Too early with this one... That High Pressure is playing games with us this time.

[Cambium]

STORM UPDATE:::

Latest model as of 11pm...I cant make this up folks... Obviously blue is snow, green is rain and pink sleet.. This is Thursday Morning(5am) Looks like rain coastal New London and Middlesex.. Snow everywhere else..



This is 6 hours later... Heavy snow Fairfield, New Haven, New London and Middlesex....




and 6 hours later thursday afternoon.... Still snowing pretty good and heavy in Eastern CT..




More models tomorrow.

[7express]

Seems like every time Western Connecticut plays at Eastern Connecticut, there's always a snow storm that day. Even if its flurries during the day just let me get out to Willimantic from Trumbull on Tuesday.