[Cambium]

::Model Update 11am::

This run slows the storm down explodes it off North Carolina BUT...out to sea and gives light snow precip to coastal areas... lol

Crunch time..

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by Cambium

From Day 6-10 its about whether or not theres a potential for a storm..
Day 4-6 Its about tracking and moisture content
Day 0-3 Its about amount of precip once track is determined.
Day 0 - Watching the actual weather above us and not the models

We're 4 days away. Right now only one can say the "potential" per model run..One model has 3 inches of rain, another model has 2 feet of snow. One model has 6 inches of snow after 1 inch of rain. 1 model has nothing at all. lol

Right now we all know the potential is there for something massive.

I'll take option # 1 and option #4 please....
I HATE snow and our condo complex cant handle another storm measured in feet.......We have mountains frozen from the last few storms......nowhere to put the plowed snow anymore.....

[HeadedWest]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Right now we all know the potential is there for something massive.

And the models will change a dozen times between now and Tuesday. Odds are the various models will continue to suggest wildly different scenarios.

By Monday, they'll mean something. Or not.

[Cambium]

Let's break down the latest model runs...

* The NAM a short term model only shows until Tuesday night.. storm tracks inland overnight into Wednesday pushing the High to the East which was helping hold cold air in place... mostly rain except for the slight possibility of snow at the onset.

* GFS tracks the low up the coast far enough offshore (by 1 p.m. Wednesday afternoon) little or no precip but cold air stays...

* GFS ensembles track the low a little closer to the coast which would indicate some more snow.

* CMC and NAM has a crazy west track with winds from the south and southeast and produces mainly heavy rain.

* Euro just west of the GFS model - closer to coast but far enough to support all snow.

* UKMET model shows snow to rain, and back to snow before ending.

I have never seen a mix of all these senarios in many years..Especially 4 days out!

So take a pick what you want and I'll tell you which model you hope is right.. lol

A. Nothing - continue cold and snow on ground
B. Heavy Flooding Rains - 75% of snow byebye
C. Heavy Snow - Icebergs forming
D. Snow to Rain to Snow - sloppy slippery icy mess for evening
E. Light Snow

[gmdealerguy]

So take a pick what you want and I'll tell you which model you hope is right.. lol

A. Nothing - continue cold and snow on ground
B. Heavy Flooding Rains - 75% of snow byebye
C. Heavy Snow - Icebergs forming
D. Snow to Rain to Snow - sloppy slippery icy mess for evening
E. Light Snow[/quote]


Im going with......drum roll.......D !!!!!.....though its probably C knowing my luck.......but wish it would be B.....

[DawnMTL]

I have a bone (and that's funny if you keep reading) to pick with you, Cambium, because I'm blaming you -- yes, YOU! -- for all this snow and ice. That's because blaming Mother Nature is futile... I can't punch her.

Guess who most likely has a broken fibula! Guess! GUESS!!! That's right! ME! (It makes for "fun" [i.e. painful] dog walks, let me tell you!)

After a couple of weeks of ankle and Achilles tendon pain, I went to the clinic this morning. (Yeah, yeah, I know... why wait two weeks? Because. I'm a wimp. ) They did x-rays and, although a radiologist at the hospital needs to verify them on Monday/Tuesday, the doc thinks that she saw a break.

Dinner tonight: Anti-inflammatories and Vicodin! Dinner of champions. Woo hooo!

I think that, on one of my dog walks a few weeks ago, I must have twisted my leg on a rough (hard snow/ice) patch.

This Montreal girl is officially done with winter.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Let's break down the latest model runs...

* The NAM a short term model only shows until Tuesday night.. storm tracks inland overnight into Wednesday pushing the High to the East which was helping hold cold air in place... mostly rain except for the slight possibility of snow at the onset.

* GFS tracks the low up the coast far enough offshore (by 1 p.m. Wednesday afternoon) little or no precip but cold air stays...

* GFS ensembles track the low a little closer to the coast which would indicate some more snow.

* CMC and NAM has a crazy west track with winds from the south and southeast and produces mainly heavy rain.

* Euro just west of the GFS model - closer to coast but far enough to support all snow.

* UKMET model shows snow to rain, and back to snow before ending.

I have never seen a mix of all these senarios in many years..Especially 4 days out!

So take a pick what you want and I'll tell you which model you hope is right.. lol

A. Nothing - continue cold and snow on ground
B. Heavy Flooding Rains - 75% of snow byebye
C. Heavy Snow - Icebergs forming
D. Snow to Rain to Snow - sloppy slippery icy mess for evening
E. Light Snow

Although more than even I expected you and all the "sensationalist wishcasters" at Accuweather, etc. have actually been close to if not on the mark with all of these crazy storms, I'm actually going to go out on a limb and predict either rain or "nothing" this time. I base it on the following:

1) There is one precedent I believe for "all the models all over the place" and that's the famous March, 2001 blunder. The "worst case" model actually predicted THREE feet of snow and hurricane force winds (unprecedented for the Tri-State area) and not only caused almost every school district in the lower Northeast to close preemptively (in some cases making said decision official TWO DAYS before the storm), but many businesses that don't even announce closures in 2 foot storms did so and did it preemptively (including where I worked, something that never happened otherwise in the 15 years I worked there). Storm ended up weaker and offshore and most places got 3-4" of snow with a little rain mixed in at times on the coast (granted, it did have a punch in inland Massachusetts and northern New England though).

2) Just law of averages tells me this might be the time the big snow doesn't happen, at least on the coast. Central Park, Bridgeport, and Bradley/Hartford are all on or a bit past pace to match the record for seasonal snowfall all 3 set in 1995-96 (about 75-76" for both NYC and Bridgeport/Sikorsky, somewhere in the 100-110" range for Bradley/Hartford), which means it would have to keep snowing like this to approach what is the historical extreme (and in the case of NYC and Bridgeport, the record was shattered then by about 10-15" making the total even more of an anomoly).

If we really got 2 feet of snow out of what's coming this week, I believe all 3 places would shatter the record for most snow in any month (which for NYC was already done Feb. of last year and that record stood for over a century!). Central Park would have over 40" of snow in one month, and considering that 30" has only been cracked twice in the 141 year history of weather records there (and before last Feb. it was in the 1800s), I think it's unlikely.

(Now I'll admit that Philly/Baltimore/DC had both a monthly and seasonal snow total last year that compared to the previous records would be looked at as "impossible" (I think Baltimore had something like 50" for Feb. and 80" for the whole winter with previous records being barely over half that) so maybe it is just the Tri-State and southern New England's turn so to speak, but we'll see).

If this keeps up, you have to wonder if the NFL will have second thoughts about having the 2014 Super Bowl in NJ in an outdoor stadium.....

[foxywench]

ive got my fingers crossed for the nothing at all senario...but ive got a feeling thats just wishfull thinking lol.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

Im going with......drum roll.......D !!!!!.....though its probably C knowing my luck.......but wish it would be B.....

So you hope the GFS is right and others will follow.. GFS has been having a good track record this year..

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by DandJ

I have a bone (and that's funny if you keep reading) to pick with you, Cambium, because I'm blaming you -- yes, YOU! -- for all this snow and ice. That's because blaming Mother Nature is futile... I can't punch her.

Guess who most likely has a broken fibula! Guess! GUESS!!! That's right! ME! (It makes for "fun" [i.e. painful] dog walks, let me tell you!)


This Montreal girl is officially done with winter.

Oh man, so sorry to hear that... you can punch me if you want.. I have an 80lbs dog with a ton of tourque and when Im walking on ice and she wants to powerwalk ahead of me, I know locking the leash will have her pull me but if I keep the leash loose she'll gain momentum....so what I do is powerwalk carefully until I catch up...lol..

What has stopped me from walking our usual 3 miles a day is the salt...it burns her pads so we walk less or just go to the beach.

Take care of that fibula...you'll heal quick dont worry. I broke my ankle and healed in 4 days...Eat a Banana a day.