[Cambium]

Flashback to 3 days before last storm... Tomorrow is decision day for the next..

https://www.city-data.com/forum/17330874-post964.html

Originally Posted by Cambium on January 08, 2011

GET READY FOLKS

Add 1 more.
1 model take it out to sea. (GFS)
1 model has light snow (Euro)
3 models (UKMET,NOGAP,DGEX)has 10-15 inches of snow along I-95

Originally Posted by Cambium Posted Jan. 09, 2011

*** UPDATE: SNOWSTORM JANUARY 12, 2010 ***

GFS & Euro come around to a big storm.... And so we have checkmate.

6 models (GFS, EURO,UKMET,NOGAP,DGEX,JMA)has 10-15 inches of snow along I-95

[Cambium]

MODEL UPDATE:::

WOW guys... one model has given into the one that would give us snow...On this run its all snow and lots of it because the High pressure catches up and cold air stays in place... This is nuts...

Out to Sea Nothing: 3
West Track all Rain: 0
All Snow: 1
Right on Coast: Rain to Snow: 3
200 miles off coast: Light Snow: 2

Take a look..

[7express]

Originally Posted by foxywench

and that one i can aboluslty agree with, i dont think ive EVER felt cold like it is out there tonight, whent out at 5 to give the chickens their night time oatmeal, fresh water and pick up the afternoon eggs, the eggs felt like icecubes and our coop is insulated...my hands were numb and i was only out there a few minutes...

its insanely cold out there!

I had to walk to my car which is parked at my grandfather's next door to get my schedule out of the car, see what time my class was tomorrow, really insanely cold. I was warmer in Brunswick, Maine on Friday night then I was today. And to add insult to injury, I grabbed the wrong folder out of my car

[Yankeerose00]

Can some of you weather gurus help me out?
My parents have their house on the market in Tennessee and have been all set to move to CT to be near me. It's been a long time since we've lived in the same state and now that they are seniors, I wanted them close by. They were going to be living with me.

Well, apparently they saw this big segment on the news that talked about how they've been wrong for all these years and not only is there no global warming but rather winters are going to get colder and colder. What's a below average winter now, is going to be more of a normal winter in the future.

So now they do not want to move here. I'm trying to assure them this is a colder winter than we've had in the past. This is our 3rd winter here, and first two were a breeze for me. I actually loved it. This winter? Even I'm counting the days until spring. It has been a hard winter.

But would you say that this is a normal winter? And without getting into politics is there any evidence that winters are going to get colder and colder?

Not just for my parents but I compared our electric and oil bill this year to last and it's a good 30-40% higher. I'm wondering if we need to start planning on a higher budget for winter.

Thanks in advance.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Yankeerose00

Can some of you weather gurus help me out?
My parents have their house on the market in Tennessee and have been all set to move to CT to be near me. It's been a long time since we've lived in the same state and now that they are seniors, I wanted them close by. They were going to be living with me.

Well, apparently they saw this big segment on the news that talked about how they've been wrong for all these years and not only is there no global warming but rather winters are going to get colder and colder. What's a below average winter now, is going to be more of a normal winter in the future.

So now they do not want to move here. I'm trying to assure them this is a colder winter than we've had in the past. This is our 3rd winter here, and first two were a breeze for me. I actually loved it. This winter? Even I'm counting the days until spring. It has been a hard winter.

But would you say that this is a normal winter? And without getting into politics is there any evidence that winters are going to get colder and colder?

Not just for my parents but I compared our electric and oil bill this year to last and it's a good 30-40% higher. I'm wondering if we need to start planning on a higher budget for winter.

Thanks in advance.

The numbers show that by far this is a snowier than normal winter (NYC, Bridgeport and Hartford are all a little above their normal snow totals for an entire winter) and it is a few degrees colder than normal too.

My take is that weather and climate are honestly too complex to really predict it in full. I think the science of global warming is technically correct (i.e. Venus would equal Mercury in temperature were it not for it's CO2 rich atmosphere) and that any pollution that changes the composition of our atmosphere is something to at least think about, but I think it's effect on us is not as much as the naysayers make and that too many things factor into climate for it to be the only thing at play. I remember in the 1970s when we had a few cold, snowy years and they said that sulfate pollution was blocking the sun and we'd have global COOLING.

Also, when they talk about the increase in CO2, etc. we're talking about like 200 particle per million going up to 300, which is really a very small percentage simply becoming a bigger small percentage. Yes, there's an effect, but I think a bigger effect on our recent warm decades is the big increase in "development" and building and the "heat island effect" it gives. The fact that most of the warmth has been in nightime lows shows this.

I hope that helps and that it doesn't turn this into a "political" discussion.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Yankeerose00

Can some of you weather gurus help me out?
My parents have their house on the market in Tennessee and have been all set to move to CT to be near me. It's been a long time since we've lived in the same state and now that they are seniors, I wanted them close by. They were going to be living with me.

Well, apparently they saw this big segment on the news that talked about how they've been wrong for all these years and not only is there no global warming but rather winters are going to get colder and colder. What's a below average winter now, is going to be more of a normal winter in the future.

So now they do not want to move here. I'm trying to assure them this is a colder winter than we've had in the past. This is our 3rd winter here, and first two were a breeze for me. I actually loved it. This winter? Even I'm counting the days until spring. It has been a hard winter.

But would you say that this is a normal winter? And without getting into politics is there any evidence that winters are going to get colder and colder?

Not just for my parents but I compared our electric and oil bill this year to last and it's a good 30-40% higher. I'm wondering if we need to start planning on a higher budget for winter.

Thanks in advance.

My definition of "normal" is not typical. Like I always say Earth is 6+ BILLION years old and our records we kept of weather are just 100-200 YEARS old.... So this could still be abnormal in a sense and normal could be sub zero...

To keep this simple...Yes this winter is colder than "average". No we cant predict the future. Yes you should budget higher for winter. Yes they should move because winters even like this one are only 3 months. There's 12 months in a year.

If anyone looks at history and averages like a few on this board do, then next year could be worse than this one... Look up double year La Ninas and look at the temps for the 2nd year of La Nina.

Bottom line..Its been under 10 degrees a couple times....I mean really...a coulple times not an entire month..

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

The numbers show that by far this is a snowier than normal winter (NYC, Bridgeport and Hartford are all a little above their normal snow totals for an entire winter) and it is a few degrees colder than normal too.

Hey 7Wishes.... I'm trying to find a stat ojn snow cover... Whats the longest period we had with snow on ground? I know we're getting close at 4 weeks now.. But I think there was a year we had ice and snow on ground for 2 months till March...not sure.

Haven't been able to find anything.

[Cambium]

BTW.,.. the Euro stayed on track, thats 5 runs in a row. Another model came on board with the same idea.

Looks like we're definetly getting snow... Still working on the amounts.

Based on the latest Euro..Stratford, CT rain to start then half foot of snow Tursday afternoon/night.

[Tin Knocker]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Hey 7Wishes.... I'm trying to find a stat ojn snow cover... Whats the longest period we had with snow on ground? I know we're getting close at 4 weeks now.. But I think there was a year we had ice and snow on ground for 2 months till March...not sure.

Haven't been able to find anything.

I think it was 95 we had snow about every week from Nov to April and if I recall it never had time to melt between storms. They had to truck it to Calf Pasture beach & Vets park in Norwalk and there was snow still melting in those lots into summer.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Hey 7Wishes.... I'm trying to find a stat ojn snow cover... Whats the longest period we had with snow on ground? I know we're getting close at 4 weeks now.. But I think there was a year we had ice and snow on ground for 2 months till March...not sure.

Haven't been able to find anything.

I haven't been able to find that either....I know on average we have roughly (a little more inland though) about 30 days of snow cover/year (there are lots of maps out there on the web that will show this), but not all consecutive. I remember way back in 77-78 as a kid it seemed there was snow on the ground all winter and as Tim K. said 95-96 seemed almost the same way.

Of course, once you get north and inland enough it's normal to have snow cover most of the winter; the 4-5 years I lived in the Albany, NY area about 20 years ago that seeemed to be the case all but the last winter I was there.

Here's an interesting take on the winters of the past two years I just found now in my news feed: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/sc...th/25cold.html