[Lowerdeck]

I'm thankful this storm stayed mostly offshore today. I was able to come down to Milford for the afternoon and evening. Would have stayed home otherwise, and I don't care much for boring weekends at home. (Then again I been in Boston and NYC both the last couple days.) I just hope it stays off the coast long enough, so I can get home tonight and then to work tomorrow morning without having to leave early.

[Cambium]

Cape Cod seeing 2-5 inches tonight. We're recessed in on the map so we missed it as it bee lined from Virginia to Boston.

[Cambium]

THIS IS WHAT I WANT!

[kidyankee764]

They're saying that we may get hit by a "substantial snowstorm" on Christmas day (five days away). I'm wondering how the heck they're so sure about this so far in advance.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

They're saying that we may get hit by a "substantial snowstorm" on Christmas day (five days away). I'm wondering how the heck they're so sure about this so far in advance.

That's just it, they're not sure. I smell Bust #3 for this month as far as central CT is concerned!

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by rajmelk

That's just it, they're not sure. I smell Bust #3 for this month as far as central CT is concerned!

Same here. It bugs me that they say "substantial snow for Christmas" five days out.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

They're saying that we may get hit by a "substantial snowstorm" on Christmas day (five days away). I'm wondering how the heck they're so sure about this so far in advance.

I havent learned the science of how the models can see something happening 2 weeks in advance (which they have been 100% correctly lately) but its Pretty easy to understand how one can make a statement like that.

If models are all over the place 5 -10 days before, meterologists will not say anything... Models have been all over the place this season (last year they were NOT)..so its been tougher this season for sure...

Last thing worth mentioning...ALL models agree on a storm around Dec. 26th and its the first time this season they are all agreeing with the senario this far out, so thats why they are making that statement.

Stay Tuned.

[Cambium]

PSSSST:

Everyone going gaga about the latest Euro model that came out. Keep in mind Euro (the more reliable model) has been right about past storms paths and has been consitant with the 26th storm.

Here's the latest... You dont need to know what it means, just look at the east coast eye popper.

As far as latest technicals on this particular model: 968mb bomb off Jersey Coast will make it a Cat2 Blizzard with hurricane force winds and up to 2 feet of snow with moisture associated with this. It took the Low from California, dipped it into the Gulf, and rode it up the coast. LI could get mixing on this run. INSANE? lol Still early.

The characteristics of this would be that of the Blizzard of 1993.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

PSSSST:

Everyone going gaga about the latest Euro model that came out. Keep in mind Euro (the more reliable model) has been right about past storms paths and has been consitant with the 26th storm.

Here's the latest... You dont need to know what it means, just look at the east coast eye popper.

As far as latest technicals on this particular model: 968mb bomb off Jersey Coast will make it a Cat2 Blizzard with hurricane force winds and up to 2 feet of snow with moisture associated with this. It took the Low from California, dipped it into the Gulf, and rode it up the coast. LI could get mixing on this run. INSANE? lol Still early.

The characteristics of this would be that of the Blizzard of 1993.

I know you are quite excited about the prospect of snow finally in the Atlantic lowlands/East Coast...so let me mention a few things:

The low that is now just moving onshore in central California is what the models are expecting to cross the middle of the USA mainland and then move off the East Coast around Virginia (give or take). So there is not really a question that a storm will be moving through the southern Plains to the East Coast as the week goes on...but what the eventual track will be. Just like the storm last weekend...the models continue flip-flop with every new run. With the exception of the GFS, the most important trend that I see is for the storm to evolve more slowly that pervious thought. This is significant: A slowing of the storm WILL delay the arrival of snow in our local area...so I think any chance of snow will be on Sunday (December 26th). So I think it’s a good bet it will not be a white Christmas in most of the Tri-State/I-95 region from this storm. My sense is that most of the East Coast/I-95 corridor will only start to see snow early on December 26th.

The next big issue is this block (I ‘m really getting tired of it). The block to out north is so cold, so dry, with very low dew points...that there is a real risk that unless the storm really gets close and has a ton of deep moisture...any precip in the NW shield will evaporate before it can fall (or most of it evaporates). This would take a snowstorm that could produce 6 or 8 inches in the Tri-State area...and turn into a storm that will only deliver 1 to 3 inches. We still are 4 days away (more –since I think the storm will slow down as it moves eastward across the mainland). So I would watch cautiously in the coming days...1) speed...2) if where phasing with the southern stream occurs...3) Block and dry air locally.

Based on the dry air locally holding...and the lack of alot of mositure being in the storm when it shoots out over the Atlantic off VA/MD....and long term averages...a real “blizzard “ is likely a very long shot.


Cheers.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I know you are quite excited about the prospect of snow finally in the Atlantic lowlands/East Coast...so let me mention a few things:

The low that is now just moving onshore in central California is what the models are expecting to cross the middle of the USA mainland and then move off the East Coast around Virginia (give or take). So there is not really a question that a storm will be moving through the southern Plains to the East Coast as the week goes on...but what the eventual track will be. Just like the storm last weekend...the models continue flip-flop with every new run. With the exception of the GFS, the most important trend that I see is for the storm to evolve more slowly that pervious thought. This is significant: A slowing of the storm WILL delay the arrival of snow in our local area...so I think any chance of snow will be on Sunday (December 26th). So I think it’s a good bet it will not be a white Christmas in most of the Tri-State/I-95 region from this storm. My sense is that most of the East Coast/I-95 corridor will only start to see snow early on December 26th.

The next big issue is this block (I ‘m really getting tired of it). The block to out north is so cold, so dry, with very low dew points...that there is a real risk that unless the storm really gets close and has a ton of deep moisture...any precip in the NW shield will evaporate before it can fall (or most of it evaporates). This would take a snowstorm that could produce 6 or 8 inches in the Tri-State area...and turn into a storm that will only deliver 1 to 3 inches. We still are 4 days away (more –since I think the storm will slow down as it moves eastward across the mainland). So I would watch cautiously in the coming days...1) speed...2) if where phasing with the southern stream occurs...3) Block and dry air locally.

Based on the dry air locally holding...and the lack of alot of mositure being in the storm when it shoots out over the Atlantic off VA/MD....and long term averages...a real “blizzard “ is likely a very long shot.

Cheers.

Did you have some EggNog? Awesome Post!!

Yes, when you said "evaporation" I automatically thought..TYPICAL LaNina.. Every year I remember watching snow clouds over me but nothing reaching the ground I always wondered why...It was LaNina years when that happened.

Maybe she's weakening? Or maybe like you said its going to carry enough moisture. One model has it dipping into the Gulf. Thats a crazy dive.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

With the exception of the GFS, the most important trend that I see is for the storm to evolve more slowly that pervious thought. This is significant:

Also note the possibility of a stall or slow down near us because of the blocking.

Did you notice the winds today? Did you see the radar past 24hrs?? The last storm moved NorthEast, STOPPED in its tracks, then headed South West! INSANE.