[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Yes, the weather will always do what it wants. However, in terms of weather extremes, keep in mind that it can be spun in both directions. Take just this past March (2010) in the Tri-State area. Using NWS Bridgeport data:

• Only 0.1 inches of snow fell all month…
* Mean temps averaged 5.0 F ABOVE NORMAL…
• On 7 of 31 days the daily high hit 60 F OR HIGHER…
• On more than half the days the daily high was over 50 F…
• Parts of Connecticut/NYC were near 70 F on March 20th, 2010.


So the extremes can be spun in both directions.

However, the fact remains the solar is getting higher... and higher... and higher…etc. Nothing can change that now...

While I agree, in this instance it has nothing to do with Cambium's point. He was noting that the 1993 storm tracked like a rainstorm and was in MARCH to boot, but was still a snow and ice storm. The March, 1888 blizzard had a very similar unexpected profile.

The true counterpoint to him this time would be to find a storm that tracked a little off the coast, but was a rainstorm instead of a blizzard. Weather geek that I am, I don't remember enough about past tracks to find an example, but I'm sure there's one.



I am curious why they're not talking anymore about the scenario where the big Arctic high gets so big (i.e. even colder temps than forecast, like if Central Park somehow got it's first subzero low since 1994) that it actually suppresses the storm to the south. I had seen that scenario mentioned in the OKX discussion until now.

[HeadedWest]

Originally Posted by Cambium

My above post is soley to show that no matter what we think...a storm will do what it wants and when it wants... To base a forecast or a chance of something on the suns angles or ocean temps or leaves on trees or average temps climbing, or how many fruit loops you ate...is completly and utterly pointless...

You are arguing against a distorted and exaggerated version of what was posted.

Is each storm unique? Of course.

Does the sun angle and length of daylight change the dynamics? Of course.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

While I agree, in this instance it has nothing to do with Cambium's point. He was noting that the 1993 storm tracked like a rainstorm and was in MARCH to boot, but was still a snow and ice storm. The March, 1888 blizzard had a very similar unexpected profile.

The true counterpoint to him this time would be to find a storm that tracked a little off the coast, but was a rainstorm instead of a blizzard. Weather geek that I am, I don't remember enough about past tracks to find an example, but I'm sure there's one.


I am curious why they're not talking anymore about the scenario where the big Arctic high gets so big (i.e. even colder temps than forecast, like if Central Park somehow got it's first subzero low since 1994) that it actually suppresses the storm to the south. I had seen that scenario mentioned in the OKX discussion until now.

You might have really missed my point in a way ( my fault): What irks me to no end, (and I know I have said it several times)…is that winter weather, ESPECIALLY WINTER WEATHER ON THE EAST COAST…is disseminated with a huge bias and “pro cold/snow spin” …that the opposite view is never considered (or worse, deliberately not considered). When you combine the biased agendas’ of “weather personalities “ like Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity (at AccuWeather) even or our own “Glacier Gil” here in Connecticut (Channel 8), along with computer projections that are often not correct …you have the making of a one sided view or slant on the weather or climate…for marketing reasons of course.

My post showing that just last March - there was only 0.1 inches of snow across the Tri-State area…that more than half the days during the month were in the 50’s and 60’s (we hit 70 F in some places on March 20th)…was only to show that there are other possible weather scenarios in March that you will never hear about from the gods of media and marketing. Once again…for marketing reasons of course.

As to the chances of a sub zero low in Central Park...it is quite rare. Yes, 1994 (16 years ago) was the last time Central Park dropped to just slightly below zero. Last week they has lows up in the Upper Midwest that fell to -40 F. It fell to 36 F in Miami last month, and people got up at 5:00 am to go outside and feel what it felt like. Cold is relative I guess.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

What irks me to no end, (and I know I have said it several times)…is that winter weather, ESPECIALLY WINTER WEATHER ON THE EAST COAST…is disseminated with a huge bias and “pro cold/snow spin” …that the opposite view is never considered (or worse, deliberately not considered). When you combine the biased agendas’ of “weather personalities “ like Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity (at AccuWeather) even or our own “Glacier Gil” here in Connecticut (Channel 8), along with computer projections that are often not correct …you have the making of a one sided view or slant on the weather or climate…for marketing reasons of course.

You have said this before each and every storm we had this year and it is getting obvious the statement does not reflect what could happen. Period.

42 inches of snow this season...42 inches of snow in 3.5 weeks....Some spots have over 50 inch totals in CT..

I am baffled that there are people who continue to try and explain why something cannot happen as opposed to what is happening or what can happen. To me it's even pointless to reply to that thinking.

You obviously do not follow accuweather or these folks you mention because if you did you would hear them say do not hug the models, there could be a mix on the coast, ect and you would realize they been dead on with the forecasting... I have facts to prove that. Maybe they used to hype things up in the past, but thats not the case recently, so that statement is fabricated.

Lets discuss what the current models are showing as opposed to an agenda. I am discussing the current model forecasts.. ITS SHOWING BLIZZARD ON 3, OUT TO SEA ON ANOTHER, RAIN ON ANOTHER.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

You have said this before each and every storm we had this year and it is getting obvious the statement does not reflect what could happen. Period.

42 inches of snow this season...42 inches of snow in 3.5 weeks....Some spots have over 50 inch totals in CT..

I am baffled that there are people who continue to try and explain why something cannot happen as opposed to what is happening or what can happen. To me it's even pointless to reply to that thinking.

You obviously do not follow accuweather or these folks you mention because if you did you would hear them say do not hug the models, there could be a mix on the coast, ect and you would realize they been dead on with the forecasting... I have facts to prove that. Maybe they used to hype things up in the past, but thats not the case recently, so that statement is fabricated.

You have me worried…you seem to defend AccuWeather a little too much. Perhaps you’re a forecaster?

You still miss the point; In your world its fine to try to spin the pro cold side to any storm…or take a trip down memory lane with storms from 1993, 1978, or 1888(lol). Yet, when someone counters with a more recent trip down memory lane (like just this past March) and show that the Tri-State had more than half the days over 50 F ( several days over 60 F)…and 0.1 inches of snow the WHOLE month – they are the ones being pointless. I think they call that bias winter weather hype!

I guess a big reason why I post here and will continue to do so.

PS. By the way, despite the hype of the amount of snow days…most of the Tri-State had ZERO snow cover for the first 26 days of December. Then after the big snowstorm…even that melted just about totally in less than 8 days. So yes there has been more snow than normal...but we had just about all of December with zero snow and no snow cover.

Stick that in your pro winter bias and smoke it....

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

You might have really missed my point in a way ( my fault): What irks me to no end, (and I know I have said it several times)…is that winter weather, ESPECIALLY WINTER WEATHER ON THE EAST COAST…is disseminated with a huge bias and “pro cold/snow spin” …that the opposite view is never considered (or worse, deliberately not considered). When you combine the biased agendas’ of “weather personalities “ like Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity (at AccuWeather) even or our own “Glacier Gil” here in Connecticut (Channel 8), along with computer projections that are often not correct …you have the making of a one sided view or slant on the weather or climate…for marketing reasons of course.

My post showing that just last March - there was only 0.1 inches of snow across the Tri-State area…that more than half the days during the month were in the 50’s and 60’s (we hit 70 F in some places on March 20th)…was only to show that there are other possible weather scenarios in March that you will never hear about from the gods of media and marketing. Once again…for marketing reasons of course.

As to the chances of a sub zero low in Central Park...it is quite rare. Yes, 1994 (16 years ago) was the last time Central Park dropped to just slightly below zero. Last week they has lows up in the Upper Midwest that fell to -40 F. It fell to 36 F in Miami last month, and people got up at 5:00 am to go outside and feel what it felt like. Cold is relative I guess.

I agree that all the people you mention do have a big "winter bias" normally (I can think of lots of times during much of the 1990s and 2000s when they predicted big storms that were duds), but I have to say that this winter they and Cambium have gotten it about 90+% right this time, even if they do hype it up. I'm kind of hoping this is the one where they're wrong (either it rains on the coast and perhaps a bit inland, or the "blocking high" scenario that sends it south).

As for Central Park and a subzero temperature, you're right but it is rarer than it used to be though. If you go to this site: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/...w0degdays.html

you'll see that this 16 year stretch is the 2nd longest such stretch since the Park started record-keeping in 1869 (the longest being 18 years, from 1943 to 1961) and counting. I think the only time in this stretch they came even close (like under 5-deg for a low) was on Jan 16, 2004 when the low was 1-deg. It's not like it used to be an annual occurance, but you'd usually see it a couple of times in a decade. Also that after 1943, it hasn't gone below -2.

[Cambium]

**UPDATE BLIZZARD JANUARY 26-27, 2011**

Back to whats happening "NOW"...Guys... This is a big storm "as of right now"... Below are 4 images... Forget precip amounts right now...These images will show where the rains are and snows and how heavy.. Darker shades obviously heavy precip..

Storm starts in CT at hour 120 and ends at 162... Thats almost 40 hours of precip...

Notice the coast will see rain at hour 132.. But then turn to all snow after 4 hours... and ANY parts of Litchfield, Hartford, Tolland, Windham, Northern Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex, and New London Counties NEED TO BE ON ALERT BASED ON THE LAST FEW MODELS AGREEING ON THIS SETUP.

[JayCT]

Please stop bickering and stick to the topic of this thread. Thank you, JayCT, Moderator

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Posted 1-18-11.... Well it is nice to be back in Connecticut…I had a chance to go to see family in Miami, so I couldn’t pass it up. You can’t beat Florida in winter, temps were perfect 77 – 78 F and plenty of sunshine.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

...Posted 1-1-11....Well, I’m back in Connecticut!

I was down in the Miami area for the holidays.

Hey wavehunter, just curious if your going to fly to Florida again for this Blizzard.. Seems like you missed it both times. Let me know how the "weather" is down there. Your location says "Miami/NYC"...Do you live in NYC or Miami? I thought it was Connecticut.

[htfdcolt]

Supposed to be in DC Tuesday for a business trip, flying back that evening. What are the chances of air travel being disrupted latter half of that day, Cambium? Rain expected down there?