[Cambium]

Thursday Rain Update:

As I posted yesterday the Satellite image of the Atlantic...Tropical Sean Has formed. No threat to land but some moisture will feed New England and Eastern CT with Rain Thursday.

Weekend Weather:

After this cold front and Tropical system pass, another High Pressure moves in... It will be Dry but no more 60s... High temps will be in the 50s and pleasant.

Next Week Weather:
Might touch low 60s again but another front comes through and we have to watch around the 16th for the next system.

Month Weather:

Enjoy this weather because the Trough is starting to dig...after mid November we turn colder...

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

True..but

This day in 1938 the temperature hit 78 degrees, but the day after Thanksgiving the same year there was a 10" blizzard with 50mph gusts and 18 degrees.

I do remember reading about the "snow event" near Thanksgiving in 1938...but it was not quite a "blizzard" . A blizzard normally has 20 inches or more of snowfall.

As far as this November...I would not look for much in the way of cold weather/frozen precip any time soon: There will be several northern bulges in the jet stream...so look for warming on the East Coast from now till early Thur. Briefly a push of a bit chiller air will move across the southeast/East Coast by Fri...yet by Sat, the pattern is ready for yet another warm up on the East Coast, as a trough digs into the West Coast. By next Monday, look at the projected temp anomalies across the eastern half of the USA (parts of the Tri-State could crack 70 F and temps could be in the mid 80's in North Carolina)...and they just keep going...and going....:




Just what I though would happen, is now starting to happen - the warm air over NW Canada is having an effect on mean temps in the United States. These warm temps will only help to keep the ground and SST even warmer than they would normally be as we head into December and the start of meterological winter. I like being able to shut the furnace in November now and then - it saves me money!

[7 Wishes]

@Wavehunter: While the November temps you mention have happened several times in the past, the 70s in winter are a more recent phenomenon. Until the 1990s they were about as rare as snow in October (and still not common).

@Cambium: Another aspect of Subtropical Storm Sean (yes, it is a SUBTROPICAL storm, until the early 2000s these didn't get named by the NHC) that changes our forecast is that Friday, while sunny and dry, will be pretty windy now in Sean's wake......

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I do remember reading about the "snow event" near Thanksgiving in 1938...but it was not quite a "blizzard" . A blizzard normally has 20 inches or more of snowfall.

As far as this November...I would not look for much in the way of cold weather/frozen precip any time soon: There will be several northern bulges in the jet stream...so look for warming on the East Coast from now till early Thur. Briefly a push of a bit chiller air will move across the southeast/East Coast by Fri...yet by Sat, the pattern is ready for yet another warm up on the East Coast, as a trough digs into the West Coast. By next Monday, look at the projected temp anomalies across the eastern half of the USA (parts of the Tri-State could crack 70 F and temps could be in the mid 80's in North Carolina)...and they just keep going...and going....:




Just what I though would happen, is now starting to happen - the warm air over NW Canada is having an effect on mean temps in the United States. These warm temps will only help to keep the ground and SST even warmer than they would normally be as we head into December and the start of meterological winter. I like being able to shut the furnace in November now and then - it saves me money!

So so not true on the blizzard thing. A blizzard warning is put up OFTEN in the midwest with as little as 2 to 4 inches of snow.

As for this year, of course I would not look for cold or snow..its November ...a storm at this time of year is VERY rare. Heck, what happened last month puts this year in the unique category for fall snow totals for a long time coming. Let it get warm...winter is a comin and we saw what happened after a warm start last year. I would not have wanted to have been a warm weather lover last January ...that must have been one long month for those poor folks. I doubt we will see that again though.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

A blizzard normally has 20 inches or more of snowfall.

Originally Posted by jp03

So so not true on the blizzard thing. A blizzard warning is put up OFTEN in the midwest with as little as 2 to 4 inches of snow.

I didnt want to chime in but what the heck.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/science/blizzard.php?wfo=fgz

Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains large amounts of snow OR blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for an extended period of time (at least 3 hours). When these conditions are expected, the National Weather Service will issue a "Blizzard Warning...

So technically yes a blizzard can happen with less then half foot of snow.

Edit: In fact theres a
Blizzard Warning in Alaska right now.
541 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY.

* SNOW...2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

[Cambium]

Current Temps: Another 8 for Bridgeport and we break the high record. We have a couple hours to do it. Gonna get close but I dont think it will.

Islip Long island Record High is 67 in 2009. Hmmmm...that might break

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

So so not true on the blizzard thing. A blizzard warning is put up OFTEN in the midwest with as little as 2 to 4 inches of snow.

As for this year, of course I would not look for cold or snow..its November ...a storm at this time of year is VERY rare. Heck, what happened last month puts this year in the unique category for fall snow totals for a long time coming. Let it get warm...winter is a comin and we saw what happened after a warm start last year. I would not have wanted to have been a warm weather lover last January ...that must have been one long month for those poor folks. I doubt we will see that again though.

I realize that wind speeds (sustained at 35 mph) is one of the criteria for a blizzard. However, visibly and heavy snow are the other two. Using your logic, any storm now that drops 2 or 3 inches of snow, but the wind is blowing at 35 mph…is a blizzard. They would laugh (hard) at that in the upper Midwest.

As far as temps…yea, today is more of that old East Coast Indian summer weather that I love in November. Here are some current temps:

KENNEDY INTL SUNNY 69
NEWARK/LIBERTY SUNNY 68
ISLIP SUNNY 68
ATLANTIC CITY SUNNY 71
BRADLEY INTL MOSUNNY 65
HARTFORD SUNNY 66
NEW HAVEN SUNNY 62
GROTON SUNNY 68
WILLIMANTIC SUNNY 66

...and where I am on the beach in East Lyme....SUNNY AND 69 F.

We should crack 70 F at most NWS stations in the Tri-State area today. I love 70's two weeks before Thanksgiving

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I realize that wind speeds (sustained at 35 mph) is one of the criteria for a blizzard. However, visibly and heavy snow are the other two. Using your logic, any storm now that drops 2 or 3 inches of snow, but the wind is blowing at 35 mph…is a blizzard. They would laugh (hard) at that in the upper Midwest.

As far as temps…yea, today is more of that old East Coast Indian summer weather that I love in November. Here are some current temps:

KENNEDY INTL SUNNY 69
NEWARK/LIBERTY SUNNY 68
ISLIP SUNNY 68
ATLANTIC CITY SUNNY 71
BRADLEY INTL MOSUNNY 65
HARTFORD SUNNY 66
NEW HAVEN SUNNY 62
GROTON SUNNY 68
WILLIMANTIC SUNNY 66

...and where I am on the beach in East Lyme....SUNNY AND 69 F.

We should crack 70 F at most NWS stations in the Tri-State area today. I love 70's two weeks before Thanksgiving

Its in the upper midwest where they DO put up blizzard warnings reguarly for 3 4 of 5 inches of snow! They just had blizzard conditions there this weekend and snowfall totals were in the several inch range. Not sure why you keep referring to alot of snow for a blizzard. It has NOTHING TO DO with snowfall amounts.

Enjoy the beach today!

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Current Temps: Another 8 for Bridgeport and we break the high record. We have a couple hours to do it. Gonna get close but I dont think it will.

Islip Long island Record High is 67 in 2009. Hmmmm...that might break

Islip has a lot of easily breakable record highs because they only setup shop (for officially recording weather) in the mid-1980s.

By the way, looks like Sean has transitioned from subtropical into a plain tropical storm......

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Islip has a lot of easily breakable record highs because they only setup shop (for officially recording weather) in the mid-1980s.

By the way, looks like Sean has transitioned from subtropical into a plain tropical storm......

Yeah I noticed that afterwards that Islips records are just from the 80s. Kids of tomorrow are lucky to have more records then us in the distant future.

The thing about Sean is now one model puts a 970mb low off the coast of Maine. More rain for us (not much) and snow for Maine.

Side note here::: 949mb Low heading to Alaska. Thats like a Cat3. Very powerful system.