[CarolinaOnMyMind]

Being from NJ, I found the following information of great interest concerning average October and November temps and their correlation to winter temps and snowfall. Its a report from the Center for Environmental Prediction, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences/NJAES, Rutgers University that was published in November of 2010. What really caught my attention was the following data: "Turning to October 2010 temperatures, the state average of 56.1° was 1.9° above average, and ties with 1899 and 1922 for the 35th warmest. This ends the seven month streak of temperatures in the top ten warmest category, and makes for the tenth above-average month of the past twelve (November 2009 was also in the top ten)". Both October 2010 and November 2009 were months with much warmer than avg temps and yet both winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 gave us well above avg snow fall and months with colder than avg temps.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

The pattern than takes hold in late October and early/mid November often is the pattern the coming winter will have. Several NWS stations have done a few studies that show that about 75% of the coldest winters had a colder than normal October and November. The snow that occurred on the 30th was really a blip in a very warm October. This October was warmer than normal at most NWS stations in the Tri-State area (including NWS Bridgeport where it was more than 2 F above normal). There is ZERO real evidence that the NAO will go into negative range in the near future. Even if it does, that might me colder temps, but not always snow. Unlike the Tri-State area - snow in fall in Denver is not unsual.

As we head into the middle of November, we should have seen many nights with temps in the lower teens in the upper Midwest already…instead temps have struggled to get into the upper 20’s so far up there, and the pattern looks like it will not change anytime soon.

[Cambium]

Current temps: Been feeling like the night time lows are getting lower.

Sure enough...the Normal low for coastal CT is 40 degrees this time of year. We've been dipping into the 30s lately.(below normal)
normal low for Hartford is 36. Even they are dipping below normal.

Currently mid to upper 30s along the coast. Mid to lower 30s interior. 20s in MA, I truely feel bad for those trying to survive without heat. I assume they are at a relatives, shelter or have a generator by now.

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

Baby, its cold outside! Its down to 29 here in northern Jersey at 11 pm. How low can we go!?

[Cambium]

A look at the current temps across CT as of 6:15am.

Low 30s at the coast and upper 20s in local spots. Low to mid 20s interior. Wow.
Bridgeport Record Low was in 1951 at 27. Very close but missed.
Hartford Record low was in 1991 at 21 degrees.

[Lincolnian]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

The pattern than takes hold in late October and early/mid November often is the pattern the coming winter will have. Several NWS stations have done a few studies that show that about 75% of the coldest winters had a colder than normal October and November. The snow that occurred on the 30th was really a blip in a very warm October. This October was warmer than normal at most NWS stations in the Tri-State area (including NWS Bridgeport where it was more than 2 F above normal). There is ZERO real evidence that the NAO will go into negative range in the near future. Even if it does, that might me colder temps, but not always snow. Unlike the Tri-State area - snow in fall in Denver is not unsual.

As we head into the middle of November, we should have seen many nights with temps in the lower teens in the upper Midwest already…instead temps have struggled to get into the upper 20’s so far up there, and the pattern looks like it will not change anytime soon.

It's been colder than normal here in northern Connecticut for the past month. In New Hampshire we had a thin coat of ice on the pond. That is not normal temperatures.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Lincolnian

It's been colder than normal here in northern Connecticut for the past month. In New Hampshire we had a thin coat of ice on the pond. That is not normal temperatures.

You're right and I knew I wasnt crazy... this month is starting off colder then past few years...I havent checked beyond 2009 yet but here's how the first 5 days of November in Hartford compare to last year and 2009.

Notice the average low so far is 28.8 lower then last year and 2009.
Average high is warmer then last year but cooler then 2009.

That should change next few days as the temps will warm to the 60s but then a cold front comes through again end of week.,

[Cambium]

November 9-11 Storm Update:

Precip continues to be light but models agrees on a sharp cold front which will produce snow falling for interior CT.. Nothing to worry about though..

See the text discussion from Upton.

It's almost looking like coastal storms are developing rather easily. .

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE METRO AREA. FORECAST
KEEPS DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN MOST OF THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTERIOR CONNECTICUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY UNDER
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind

Being from NJ, I found the following information of great interest concerning average October and November temps and their correlation to winter temps and snowfall. Its a report from the Center for Environmental Prediction, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences/NJAES, Rutgers University that was published in November of 2010. What really caught my attention was the following data: "Turning to October 2010 temperatures, the state average of 56.1° was 1.9° above average, and ties with 1899 and 1922 for the 35th warmest. This ends the seven month streak of temperatures in the top ten warmest category, and makes for the tenth above-average month of the past twelve (November 2009 was also in the top ten)". Both October 2010 and November 2009 were months with much warmer than avg temps and yet both winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 gave us well above avg snow fall and months with colder than avg temps.

According to research at a few NWS offices -If you look back at many of the coldest... and especially the snowiest... winters (winter 1996-1997 for example) - mean monthly temps at area NWS stations were below normal in October and November. Often the pattern that develops in mid to late fall...is often the pattern that shows its face much of the 3 month winter. Old time weather forecasters call this “persistence”. Of course, there were several winters that were snowier than normal – yet had normal or even above normal MMT in October and November. Like any weather variable - the previous season’s temps/precip is not a guarantee of what sensible weather conditions will be the coming season.

One other note (while we are on the subject of seasonal channeling)....the much ado about the NAO is often misunderstood: Despite what snow fans have been told – the NAO going very negative is NOT a good sign for snow. Last December the NAO was negative very often – yet the first 26 days of December 2010 failed to produce even a 1 inch of snow at area NWS stations. Years ago, NWS Mount Holly did a study about seasonal snowfall and a strong dive in the NAO – and they found (surprise) that a strongly negative NAO produced LESS snowy winters not more snowy winters – at least at Philadelphia International Airport. The reason for this (in part)...is that while a neg NAO sends that bitter cold air down from NW Canada (the Greenland High blocks the cold air from moving in a normal west to east path to our north, and sends it south instead), that cold air is also VERY DRY. Hence, systems have to struggle to produce precip in very dry air. If your looking for snow – you only want a very modestly negative NAO – despite the hype many have be lead to believe.

Back to the current pattern - at this juncture, unless November turns significantly colder in the coming weeks (I don’t see that even remotely at this point)...I think at a minimum we are in for above normal temps the first month of meteorological winter (December). Add in that there are indications that the next 30 days looks quite dry along the East Coast...and a truly mild first month of winter could be on tap for the Tri-State area. In the short term that blazing sun will be the rule for many days to come. In fact, even when a little moisture finally gets into the pattern late next week – temps will be rising, not falling :

[Cambium]

If anyone wants to learn about the NAO here's a good link. Weather456's Tropical Weather Blog : Investigating the North Atlantic Oscillation : Weather Underground

The NAO is currently positive which is why we will be near normal temps for this week but NAO is forecasted to tank after this weekend.

When the NAO is in its positive phase, low pressure is located across Iceland and high pressure is located across the Azores. In this phase, temperatures in the East average above normal. Due to the stronger than normal high pressure, the Polar Jet Stream is further north than normal due the blocking effects of the high. On the southern side of the strong subtropical ridge, trades are driven faster.

When the NAO is in its negative phase, the high and low pressure systems are reversed and the East experiences below normal temperatures. Polar Jet Stream is further south due to the shallow and weak blocking high.

PNA is a good combination with the NAO. A negative NAO also supports east coasts storms.

[7 Wishes]

Looking like less rain (snow up north?) than originally expected and mostly a Wed. evening into Thursday storm now.....