[Cambium]

Thanksgiving Storm Update:
Timing: Roughly starting Wednesday afternoon ending Wednesday night. Quick mover..


2 Surprises on the latest... Euro continues to show Strong storm AND... GFS went to a snowier solution...

I personally think it's going to rain and then change to snow for north of I84(interior)...may end as wet snow for the coast but for interior half a foot is not out of question.

Either way...travel in the NorthEast might be a mess because Vermont, most of NY and PA could see a big snowstorm.

Now we're in the time frame where track and temps become the thing to watch..

A shift south and everyone gets snow.
A shift north and it stay rain the whole time.

[7 Wishes]

As you just said, looks like Thanksgiving Day itself into the weekend looks good! But traveling on Wed. could be a mess....

[Cambium]

Still 5 days out but a lot of details will start to get ironed out now.

Here's TWC's thinking and Accuweather. I'm thinking an in between of these. The rain/snow line wont be as low as Accuweathers but wont be as high as Weather Channels..

So North of I-80 and north of I-84 will see a decent snowstorm from this.. This shouldnt be an I-95/coastal snowstorm..



By the way.... There's enough moisture for this to be a legit snowstorm somewhere... Anything less than 1/2 inch liquid I dont make a big deal about..This should have over an inch liquid in spots... Lets see how it plays out.

[Cambium]

Thanksgiving Storm Update:
Timing: Roughly starting Wednesday morning ending Wednesday night.

Confidence is growing this will be a rain event now... What changed is that models started trending towards that solution instead of a snowier one...

Always go with a majority and a consistancy of what they show...

Still 4 days away but after this afternoons updates and tonights we'll be even more confident.

Im thinking snow will be limited to upstate NY, Vermont, NH but not a lot to their standards.

If things change to a snowier picture I will post back here.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Antonio84

Gosh! Looking at this thread is making me put some serious thought into turning my 3 weeks (still have like 9 days left) Caribbean vacation into a 4 week one. Its so nice down here with warm days and a nice cool breeze, the Sun shining all the time with showers being isolated and literally based on single clusters of clouds. Heck, yesterday it poured like 7 times, all with the Sun shining through and through.

I'm telling you guys, if there is one thing I truly hate about Connecticut, its the weather, especially the colder weather. I need to move! lol

I hear you, I hate winter too! I wish I could stay in deep South Florida non-stop from Dec – through March (lol). What’s better than temps in the 80’s and sunshine in mid winter!.

However, if you’re returning to the Tri-State area soon – I’m happy to report you don’t worry much about true winter conditions for awhile. The current forecast is for very mild conditions until at least mid/late Dec – with little snow and anemic cold air! Here is the current mid range forecast. We should be in good shape in the Tri-State/East Coast for the next 4 weeks:

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Updated Weekly Computer Model Outlook (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/57967/updated-weekly-computer-model-outlook.asp - broken link)



Enjoy that blue ocean and the sun!

[papafox]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Thanksgiving Storm Update:
Timing: Roughly starting Wednesday morning ending Wednesday night.

Confidence is growing this will be a rain event now... What changed is that models started trending towards that solution instead of a snowier one...

Always go with a majority and a consistancy of what they show...

Still 4 days away but after this afternoons updates and tonights we'll be even more confident.

Im thinking snow will be limited to upstate NY, Vermont, NH but not a lot to their standards.

If things change to a snowier picture I will post back here.

Yea!!

Good flying weather for me!! The 850mb temps looks well above freezing tue night so hopefully I'll get some good instrument weather to practice flying in w/o having to worry about picking up ice!

Any idea this far out what the ceilings will be like in the Hartford area? 500 to 1000' would be perfect!

[Cambium]

Thank God Im not a forecaster or meterologist. It would drive me insane. LOL

Interesting... from NWSUpton

GFS is too progressive and outrunning its upper support
GEFS is supressed too far south
Euro Phasing the streams too much with strong low passing North

They are going in between GFS and Euro so they are saying rain/snow mix north of NYC especially if the low tracks south of NYC and draws in colder air.

That would mean northern half of CT gets snow accumulations. LOL

Im sticking to my rain senario UNLESS the afternoon models go back to a colder solution.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

[JohnVosilla]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I hear you, I hate winter too! I wish I could stay in deep South Florida non-stop from Dec – through March (lol). What’s better than temps in the 80’s and sunshine in mid winter!.

I wonder if you would still say that if you lived down here year round? We get tired of the heat.... still got the A/C running tonight been almost nonstop since the first week in March..like groundhog day down here too and I was raised in the northeast..would take NYC weather over SoFla in a heartbeat though both are quite low on my list these days

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by JohnVosilla

I wonder if you would still say that if you lived down here year round? We get tired of the heat.... still got the A/C running tonight been almost nonstop since the first week in March..like groundhog day down here too and I was raised in the northeast..would take NYC weather over SoFla in a heartbeat though both are quite low on my list these days

Well, if one is not a fan of warm/hot weather and sunshine, they are likely to be miserable in the deep subtropics (like Florida). I’ve lived on and off in Florida several times/have family in Florida/visit in every season. Reading city data over the last few years I’ve learned it’s futile to try to argue one climate type is "better" than another - it's in the eye of the beholder. IMO – Florida has a perfect climate – warm and sunny all year, perfect for boating, fishing, beaches, being outside. I’ll take 365 days of sunny, warm 88F weather over a single day of blustery, overcast, low sun, dead trees, 30 F day anytime. The look of winter is for dead people.


The weather in the Tri-State area is fine for me from April to November. Winters are the issue: Of course it depends on where you are in the Northeast: I would never live north of I-95 in southern/coastal Connecticut/NY/NJ: Winters in VT, NH, MASS, ME, Upstate NY, PA…etc are much worse (with double the snow), than southern CT/NYC/NJ. The winters in my neck of the woods (coastal Connecticut east of New Haven) are touch and go - and that’s what really saves me: Some winters (or winter months) suck like last January, your cooped up in the house, there is snow on the ground, it’s blustery and cold, and that’s tough for me as I’m not a couch potato – I like seeing and doing things. Yet many winters, are not too bad at all – sunny, dry, with little snow, and high temps in the 40’s and 50’s. You can still be outside and actually not have to fight the weather.

[Cambium]

Pre Thanksgiving Storm Update:

Looking like an all rain event ... Timing is a little different..to start Tuesday night and last until Wednesday evening. Amounts will range between 1.10"-1.50"

Here's the Satellite pic of the system current off the California coast..




Next storm potential is around the 28th and the 4th.