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Old 01-05-2011, 03:02 PM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,168,902 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayCT View Post
lol :d
You got to admit..right Jay I actually enjoy the banter and from both of them comes alot of solid weather info.
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Old 01-05-2011, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,540 posts, read 75,373,979 times
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So based on current models these are the totals so far....Such a narrow band its amazing and someone will get lucky and their neighboring town wont.

Also keep in mind where ever The Norlan Trough setsup Friday is where you can get a few more inches than listed here..

Northern Westchester county NY sees 4-6 inches.
Southern Westchester sees 2-4 inches.
Western Fairfield County, CT 4-6 inches,
Eastern Fairfield County, CT 2-4 inches.
Rest of CT north and East of Bridgeport sees 1-2 inches
NYC 1-3 inches.
NJ 1-3 inches
Near and around Albany, NY up to 10 inches.
North of Westchester County 5-7 inches.

Most of Long Island 3-5 inches
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Old 01-05-2011, 05:29 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,367,755 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
So based on current models these are the totals so far....Such a narrow band its amazing and someone will get lucky and their neighboring town wont.

Also keep in mind where ever The Norlan Trough setsup Friday is where you can get a few more inches than listed here..

Northern Westchester county NY sees 4-6 inches.
Southern Westchester sees 2-4 inches.
Western Fairfield County, CT 4-6 inches,
Eastern Fairfield County, CT 2-4 inches.
Rest of CT north and East of Bridgeport sees 1-2 inches
NYC 1-3 inches.
NJ 1-3 inches
Near and around Albany, NY up to 10 inches.
North of Westchester County 5-7 inches.

Most of Long Island 3-5 inches
Glad to see grasshopper you are being conservative in your snowfall (see it is easly not to hype the weather). The system has moved a bit more west in the models….but I still don’t trust them as far as I can throw them.

What I see right now is a modest snow of 3 to 6 inches across the Tri-State area. The pro-winter hypers at AccuWeather/Weather Channel will say there will be some super bands that set up…but that is really just a wish. As snow events go, it won’t be a really organized system, and the biggest bands (heaviest precip) will likely be across a very narrow areas. It WILL get cold by the end of the weekend (below normal cold)…and next week looks pretty cold...but we are now in the depths of winter so that’s no real surprise. The good thing the cold will help to give us mostly sunny skies next week.

Beyond that…early indications are a good sized warm-up is in store after January 20th/22nd. The block looks to lose its grip by late January...so enjoy the next 10-15 days...this is what winter fans live for I guess.

74 days till spring.
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Old 01-05-2011, 08:22 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,540 posts, read 75,373,979 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post

Beyond that…early indications are a good sized warm-up is in store after January 20th/22nd.

74 days till spring.
Is this the only thread you reply to? lol
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:11 PM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,168,902 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Glad to see grasshopper you are being conservative in your snowfall (see it is easly not to hype the weather). The system has moved a bit more west in the models….but I still don’t trust them as far as I can throw them.

What I see right now is a modest snow of 3 to 6 inches across the Tri-State area. The pro-winter hypers at AccuWeather/Weather Channel will say there will be some super bands that set up…but that is really just a wish. As snow events go, it won’t be a really organized system, and the biggest bands (heaviest precip) will likely be across a very narrow areas. It WILL get cold by the end of the weekend (below normal cold)…and next week looks pretty cold...but we are now in the depths of winter so that’s no real surprise. The good thing the cold will help to give us mostly sunny skies next week.

Beyond that…early indications are a good sized warm-up is in store after January 20th/22nd. The block looks to lose its grip by late January...so enjoy the next 10-15 days...this is what winter fans live for I guess.

74 days till spring.
Heat miser
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Old 01-05-2011, 11:12 PM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,168,902 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
So based on current models these are the totals so far....Such a narrow band its amazing and someone will get lucky and their neighboring town wont.

Also keep in mind where ever The Norlan Trough setsup Friday is where you can get a few more inches than listed here..

Northern Westchester county NY sees 4-6 inches.
Southern Westchester sees 2-4 inches.
Western Fairfield County, CT 4-6 inches,
Eastern Fairfield County, CT 2-4 inches.
Rest of CT north and East of Bridgeport sees 1-2 inches
NYC 1-3 inches.
NJ 1-3 inches
Near and around Albany, NY up to 10 inches.
North of Westchester County 5-7 inches.

Most of Long Island 3-5 inches
Snow miser I just cant help myself
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Old 01-06-2011, 04:54 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,540 posts, read 75,373,979 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Snow miser I just cant help myself
Whats even more funny is that Heat Miser is in the wrong part of the country this year.

More then 3 times the normal snowfall of 3.6" fell in December.

The average temperature last month was 31.3 degrees, which is nearly four degrees (-3.8) below the normal of 35.1 degrees.

We had 30 of the 31 days where the lows were below 32.
We had 8 Days where the high temps were beloiw 32.

The coldest temperature last month was 6 degrees on December 10, while the temperature reached as high as 59 degrees on December 1.

Over four inches (4.09") of liquid fell last month, well above the 3.47" normal for December. However, there were only five days overall with measured precipitation. Over two inches (2.10) of rain fell on December 12, while over an inch (1.15)

Last edited by Cambium; 01-06-2011 at 05:26 AM..
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Old 01-06-2011, 05:53 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,367,755 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Whats even more funny is that Heat Miser is in the wrong part of the country this year.

More then 3 times the normal snowfall of 3.6" fell in December.

The average temperature last month was 31.3 degrees, which is nearly four degrees (-3.8) below the normal of 35.1 degrees.

Well of course, one can spin that the other way too: I can remember this past summer you groaning that it was too hot and humid around the Tri-State area. It hit over 85 F on 88 days this summer (lol) Also, November was ABOVE normal in warmth. Weather will always balance itself out in the end.

As too the small snow event this weekend....A think my forcecast of 3 to 6 inches is on target. However, here was an interesting morning discussion: Is it me or does even NOAA seem to be unsure of what will happen:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
654 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TEENS AND LOW
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE 5 BOROUGHS OF NYC. WARM AIR
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN AND ITS EXPECTED THAT EARLY MORNING SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS WERE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH A POORLY MIXED CLOUDY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS EVENING...SO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...THUS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGHER IMPACT AND MORE CHALLENGING SETUP ON FRIDAY...WITH AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DELMARVA. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE OCEANIC LOW GOING
TOO FAR EAST FOR A DIRECT HIT. THEY ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROUGH...WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE
OCEAN IS DRAWN BACK OVER A SLOW MOVING CONVERGENCE BAND.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NEAR AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE THIS CONVERGENCE SETS UP...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT PLACEMENT IS THE MOST DIFFICULT ELEMENT TO PREDICT.

AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN WIDESPREAD...LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS BECOMES STRONGER. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD CONSTITUTE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW WOULD BRING THOSE AREAS INTO WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS).

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND SNOW AMOUNT...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE CWA...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS COULD EITHER BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING ONCE IT IS EVIDENT WHERE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL...OR CONVERTED INTO AN ADVISORY WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BEGIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON RUSH.

ADDING TO THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...THIS MODEL
ALSO HAS A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT...WITH 18 INCHES IN THE
BRONX...AND 3 ON STATEN ISLAND!! THE GFS AND EC...AND MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...AND WIDELY
VARYING DISTRIBUTIONS.


TO ADD YET ANOTHER PIECE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE
TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR ENOUGH
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT.


Lol. I think you might want to wait till it's actually snowing for this one
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Old 01-06-2011, 05:58 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,540 posts, read 75,373,979 times
Reputation: 16634
::SNOWSTORM JANUARY 7, 2011 UPDATE::

Depending where this narrow heavy band of snow sets-up expect generally 3-5inches widespread. This storm is different since the heavy snows are NOT widespread...The band will be 5-10 miles wide only. But if your town is caught in this band expect up to 10 inches of snow to fall with a quarter mile visibilty.

Think of the lake effect bands you always see pictures of upstate NY. Thats what it could be like if you are in this band.

Snow should start Friday morning 8am. Get heavy around 4pm. End late night. Afternoon commute could be a mess!

Uptons Forecast
National Weather Service Forecast Office - Upton, NY

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Old 01-06-2011, 06:09 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,540 posts, read 75,373,979 times
Reputation: 16634
National Weather Service Text Product Display

FROM A GUIDANCE PERSPECTIVE...THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST
WITH 15-20 INCH SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...NORTHERN NYC AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.


Really? I doubt that...That would be insane again.
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