[DawnMTL]

Originally Posted by Cambium

My my...Next 7 days looks like a winter forecast... So many people are going to be pissed. 20s, 30s, Sleet, Snow, Rain, we'll have everything this week. I wonder how that Yellow sun is doing.

SOURCE: 7-Day Forecast for Latitude 41.38°N and Longitude 73.46°W

I am not amused.

Originally Posted by Cambium

In case someone was wondering how we get winter weather in late March. Sun and Ocean have some play in weather but a small fraction of it.

There is a Canadien High Pressure North of us...There is a High pressure south of us. The Canadien high is stronger than the Gulf High which means cold air will filter in and lock in..

Moisture from the south will be in the form of rain this time of year...BUT... a system like next weeks is coming from the West and NorthWest which means less warmth is involved. And because the Gulf High will be weaker, The system will have to steer around and under that High to our North.. So the northern edge of the storm is over us.

With that said.... Guess what happens when that Canadien High retreats north more? ..... The system has room to move North which means more warmer air would filter in.

With that said ... Last 3 models have a north trend becuase that high pressure to our North shifted north more..So now the mix comes into play. You also have to look at the different layers of the atmosphere..I use the 850mb but occasional look at the 500mb. 850mb is 7000 feet up.

I hope this helped someone understand how we can get cold and winter precip in late March....

Sure. Blame us Canadians. Pffft.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Absolutely…but as we know the hype can both ways:

Anyone remember April 7, 2010 (Last Year)? It hit 92 F in Central Park and Bridgeport, Connecticut hit 81 F, people down here on the coast were in shorts and T-shirts at the Beach. Remember April 2002 – cracked 90 F on April 12th...and again on April 22, and the dew points were near 73 F (like in Kingston, Jamaica).

I think it’s important to know that the media market tries to spin weather in the most profitable direction. Its less about weather, and more about marketing. Look at Gil Simmons at Channel 8 - he made a career out of spinning winter weather (which he is a big fan of). He shows us vid clips in April of snow (lol).

No I do it both ways as well so I'll go back a bit more here too:

last week of March, 1998 - 80s (indeed close to 90 in some spots) for several days from Boston on down through Virginia (though some coastal spots like Bridgeport were closer to 80)

March 13, 1990 - Baltimore/DC area in the low-mid 90s, NYC and Philly mid 80s, even Bridgeport on the water was 84 on this day. I think this is the ultimate "heat miser" event because it not only broke but shattered all records in the Northeast for that time of year....in fact for Bridgeport it is the all-time March high and the only other 80+ degree March reading ever there occured during the 1998 event above, which was at the END of March. Personally it's to me the "heat miser" equivalevent of the big April, 1982 snowstorm.

Also, 2009, NYC was in the 90s the last week of April.

Originally Posted by DandJ

I am not amused.



Sure. Blame us Canadians. Pffft.

That's OK we blame you when we finally get a cooldown in the summer too....

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

last week of March, 1998 - 80s (indeed close to 90 in some spots) for several days from Boston on down through Virginia (though some coastal spots like Bridgeport were closer to 80)

March 13, 1990 - Baltimore/DC area in the low-mid 90s, NYC and Philly mid 80s, even Bridgeport on the water was 84 on this day. I think this is the ultimate "heat miser" event because it not only broke but shattered all records in the Northeast for that time of year....in fact for Bridgeport it is the all-time March high and the only other 80+ degree March reading ever there occured during the 1998 event above, which was at the END of March. Personally it's to me the "heat miser" equivalevent of the big April, 1982 snowstorm.

Also, 2009, NYC was in the 90s the last week of April.

There is some question as to if hot/warm weather in early spring mean a long hot and humid summer is ahead for the East Coast. I think if you look at some of those years (2010, 1998,…etc) early heat was a sign that the Azores Bermuda High was building in early and the southerly flow was trying to get established early. Last year was torrid up and down the East Coast – NYC hit 90F on like 40 days and cracked 80 F on like 100 days. To tell you the truth, I like what we have been having so far - sunny with highs in the 45 to 55 F range and dry on most days.

That seems to be what the pattern will do in the coming few weeks, no real big anomalous flow. Big early heat like last year can stress plants a lot. Last year no matter how much I watered with all the heat the grass/bamboo and palms all looked burned and sere by early July. On several days last summer I recorded 110 - 115 F temps on the patio in direct sunlight - a bit much for the plants I like to grow. This week should see a few ups and downs, cold on Monday with rain (near 40 F), then warmer on Tuesday (50 F) , then cooler in the mid 40’s for the rest of the week. A nice gradual warm up, sunny skies, and enough rain so plants don’t start out too dry is best for me. We have plenty of time to crack those 90's in the next 7 months...

[Angelic_Avalon]

I dont think i would see snow tomorrow. sorry even if it snow it wont be on the ground. everyone dont take your shovels out it's all fears

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Angelic_Avalon

I dont think i would see snow tomorrow. sorry even if it snow it wont be on the ground. everyone dont take your shovels out it's all fears

I think the talk was about Wednesday/Thursday..not tomorrow. Read the posts before ya write

[Angelic_Avalon]

Originally Posted by jp03

I think the talk was about Wednesday/Thursday..not tomorrow. Read the posts before ya write

Oh, well either way they even claim snow mix tomorrow too on the weather channel.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Angelic_Avalon

Oh, well either way they even claim snow mix tomorrow too on the weather channel.

true..but nobody ever talked about accumulations tomorrow I dont think.

[Cambium]

When the "National Weather Service" says it, you know its not the little guy posting just saying it.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING LENDING TO POLAR VORTEX ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER
SE CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SPELL A
RETURN TO A WINTER TYPE PATTERN FOR EARLY SPRING...WITH BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW ENERGY FOR THE SW US
EVENTUALLY GETTING PICKED UP BY THE POLAR VORTEX WED/WED NIGHT AND
PIVOTING THIS ENERGY INTO THE NE US WED NIGHT/THU. AT THE
SURFACE...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU. WITH ARCTIC HIGH IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA...THIS TRACK WOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER SETUP FOR THE REGION WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE
IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND STILL A DAY 4/5
FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
INTERIOR...AND EVEN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE COAST.

ONLY WEAK SIGNALS FOR NORLUN TROUGH IN THESE 12Z RUNS FOR WED
NIGHT/THU TO THE N AND S OF THE REGION...COINCIDENT WITH
INSTABILITY CENTERS. SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THIS IS A MESOSCALE
EVENT NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS AND HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN
POSITIONS/DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN RUNS.



National Weather Service Text Product Display

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Angelic_Avalon

I dont think i would see snow tomorrow. sorry even if it snow it wont be on the ground. everyone dont take your shovels out it's all fears

Trust me...maybe a few wet snow flakes...if that. Hype is the rest.

[DawnMTL]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

That's OK we blame you when we finally get a cooldown in the summer too....

Oh, OK, in that case, you're welcome.