[Stratford, Ct. Resident]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Wow...

Who would ever think that sunny, warm, dry , 60 F + weather would get so many people so angry....


I hope it does get winter like soon....or else these threads are going to get scary.

Let it get super super scary......

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Brian26

Extended forecast discussion...corrected
nws weather prediction center college park md
1102 am est mon nov 18 2013

valid 12z thu nov 21 2013 - 12z mon nov 25 2013


The overall weather theme for the medium range is "winter-like"
for a large portion of the lower 48. A broad negatively-tilted
trough along the eastern coast of canada allows for arctic air to
pool over north central canada...and periodically seep into the
lower 48. A series of fast-moving pacific mid-level shortwaves in
zonal pacific flow will migrate across the northern tier and
overrun the arctic airmass...and gradually carve a very broad
upper-level trough over the northeast quarter of the nation by
forecast period`s end.

The 18/00z cycle guidance was in remarkably good agreement with
the pattern setup through day 6...with the 18/06z gfs and 18/00z
ecmwf deterministic in decent lockstep with the arrival of a new
arctic airmass into the northern plains on days 2-3. This airmass
spreads southward through day 4...then moderates along the west
coast but plunges deeper into the midwest...plains and across the
east around day 5.

Atop the newly-arrived airmass...a series of weak...over-running
mid-level pacific systems migrate through the central portion of
the country and into new england.

...sensible weather highlights...
Periods of upslope conditions and cold canadian air will provide
ample opportunity for snow along the lee side of the rockies day
3...with arctic canadian air spreading southeastward into the
midwest...southern plains and ohio valley day 4-5. coldest airmass
of mid-autumn appears to anchor across the northern plains...great
lakes...northeast and mid-atlantic states days 6-7 with additional
snowfall potential for new england...the eastern great lakes and
the northern mid-atlantic.

closed upper-level system invof baja will lead to periods of
showers for the desert southwest and below normal temperatures
into the southern great basin...starting around day 4 (friday) and
continuing through the end of the period.

Vojtesak

Interesting:

I know cold weather fans are foaming at the mouth hoping for some cold/wintery type weather. Let me say I AGREE it will turn COLDER….but I think that report is a bit too optimistic or “pro cold” (not that that’s a problem on this thread – lol).

So let’s look at things a little more with an even eye: The normal Highs/lows for the rest of the week at NWS Bridgeport are 51 - 50/37 -36 F…

Tomorrow (Tue) it will be cooler than the last several days. No more highs in the mid 60’s in the Tri-State (about 14 F above normal)…but we will not see highs anywhere near 14 F below normal either – we’ll still top out in the upper 40’s F (only about 3 to 4 F below normal). Wed will be the coolest day, still only about 5 F below normal (high 44 F). Also, after tommaro night, nights will still struggle to get below freezing in much of coastal and southern areas of the Tri-State region:





The “computer generated” storm near November 23-24 time frame is just that at this point – a forecast 6 to 7 days away. We all saw what happened when “the models” thought they saw something a few weeks ago. So I would be highly cautions. Same goes for the storm near the end of next week (Thanksgiving time frame) We all know they have trouble forecasting the weather 3 days away…so caution is the best bet. I won’t get into (again) the odds of significant snow (6+ inches) from the NYC/CT/NJ area southward before mid December.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

This isn't about odds, can you possible relocate to a climate post?

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

This isn't about odds, can you possible relocate to a climate post?

Bingo

[SeaDoo342]

What's with all the ridiculous pot shots being taken at people. Shouldn't this be about the weather and not people's weird attractions to a warm or cold climate? Where is the moderating here?

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I don't know:

Once they average in today, November will likely be above normal for a few days. As you said it will turn cooler with highs/lows both below average - but not by much. What it really all seems to hinge on will be next week - the final week of November 2013. Some are predicting a colder pattern, some are not. I think for Nov 2013 to get to more than -1.5 F below normal (+/- 1.5 is considered in the normal range), it would have turn sharply colder. Your right, though, we likely will not see a + month no matter what, unless they are way off for next week.

Never said it's going to end over -1.5F below normal, just that it will end below normal (even within the +/- 1.5 range, if you look at the last 10 years, significantly more months are above normal than below).

They do now show a brief warmup the first half of the weekend where no more talk of snow Saturday, except for maybe a brief changeover Sat. night north of I-84. But the rest of the period before and after is trending below normal, especially from Sunday onward through Thanksgiving.

[Cambium]

November 24 Storm Update:

My unprofessional thoughts first..... Storm comes from the south, heads towards Lake Erie which sends a front into us with rain as temps crash. Depending on how much moisture is around during the crash will be the result of snow changeover. This is not a big deal storm. Could be similar to last week with brief period of snow falling. That's all.

NWS New York

THE NEXT THING OF CONCERN INVOLVES A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS
PROGRESSING/STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
CHOSE TO GO WITH THE GENERAL PATH OF TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A TIMING SPLIT BETWEEN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...AND THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION
SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST FOR
SATURDAY...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN INITIALLY AND DURING THE
DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN SAT NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW OVER AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF THE
CITY.

NWS Boston

PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING
LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT

NWS Albany

ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY WRAP IN FOR A PERIOD OF SOME SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY PM
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

Canadian model on left. GFS on right.

Canadian says low comes from south, splits into 2. One goes up the appalacians, one goes off the coast while a clipper comes down and merges with the one off the coast.

GFS says low goes into Great Lakes and all we have is a front with scattered drizzle.




What is and has been agreed on by the models for 2 weeks now is the frigid air behind all this.. Wow!
Might not get above freezing in spots during the day Sunday. Lets call it 30s for now. Will update on temps later on.

[JayCT]

Enough with the bickering. Return to the discussion of weather and not who likes warm and who likes cold. JayCT, Moderator

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Never said it's going to end over -1.5F below normal, just that it will end below normal (even within the +/- 1.5 range, if you look at the last 10 years, significantly more months are above normal than below).

They do now show a brief warmup the first half of the weekend where no more talk of snow Saturday, except for maybe a brief changeover Sat. night north of I-84. But the rest of the period before and after is trending below normal, especially from Sunday onward through Thanksgiving.

Yes I know that is not what you meant. I was just saying that it seemed unlike October which was truly a non-normal month + or – (in this case October 2013 was 2.9 F above normal), November 2013 should end within the normal variation (within +/- 1.5 F). Ironically, with yesterdays above normal temps (hit 63 F at NWS Bridgeport) the monthly mean temp at NWS Bridgeport stands at 0.0 F – lol.

As far as what lies ahead, cool today and Wed…then warming on Thur/Fri as the flow turns SW again with highs into the low 50’s. The storm this weekend looks like it will head into the eastern Lakes and toward southern Canada having little impact on the East Coast below Boston. So by Saturday I think some light precip moves through, then clearing Sunday and colder again early next week.

Still all and all…warm or cool, a bit above or below normal…..it looks to stay on the dry and storm free side through the rest of the month. Whether or not the there is any storm (rain or snow) near Thanksgiving, it looks like it will not save November 2013 from ending as the 4th drier than normal month in a row in many areas on the East Coast. Droughts start slow….and end slow the old timers say. Saw this message this morning; we normaly see this in dry April or May patterns. We could see more of this if December continues in this dry/sunny pattern:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2013



...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE BRUSH FIRE SPREAD
THIS TODAY...

WINDS THROUGH TODAY WILL GUST 25 TO 30 MPH...AND FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP TO 30 PERCENT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THIS COMBINATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE DRY
LANDSCAPE WILL CAUSE AN ENHANCED SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES...IF THERE
WAS IGNITION.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mixum

Goodbye warm weather........ Don't let door hit ya

Is today better for you?

Midday temps. Winds gusting to 25mph here. Feels like 30s with wind.

Gorgeous November day! Winds, leaves, patchy clouds, blue skies, cool 40s. Just brought some more firewood closer to the house.

If this isn't better for you then wait another 5 days for it. At least enjoy this cool dry week before what comes next.