[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Brian26

Great map. Look at that cold!

Still far out but there are signals of another shot of much colder air coming in around the beginning of Nov.

You know the deal with even moderate range forecasts (beyond about 10 days), they can be off a great deal. In any event this is my guess is:

Not quite:

I DO NOT see any truly cold air coming much before late November in the Tri-State area. As I mentioned, while we will see the common warm ups/cool downs (typical in our area in November)….I think we’ll be hard pressed to see sustained cold weather relative to normal. In fact, this may actually turn out to be a classic “seasonal” weather pattern for November. This fits with some of the shorter range forecasting by the models out to around November 20th...they seem to point to seasonable and dry weather through much of November:







After this Thursday – it WILL cool down, but temps should not be too off seasonal norms…highs in the mid 50’s F lows in the upper 30’s to near 40 F. After that (next week), as we move into the first days of November, much the same, mid/upper 50’s F (highs) and upper 30’ s F to low 40’s F along the coast (lows). I think November will follow October with little storm activity and more dry weather. This dry pattern seems to be going strong at least to November 17 th(above). It would not shock me if it goes right into December.

So it looks like mostly sunny today and nice day (tonight warmer with the clouds and SW flow)… and much of Tuesday…then scattered rain showers move in Wed/Wed night as that low ejects out east toward SE Canada….then the sun is back and continued dry right through this coming weekend:

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

You know the deal with even moderate range forecasts (beyond about 10 days), they can be off a great deal. In any event this is my guess is:

Not quite:

I DO NOT see any truly cold air coming much before late November in the Tri-State area.

So it looks like mostly sunny today and nice day

I know 50s & 60s is not what you want & I know it's cold for you and all the warm loving folks. Those warm 70s in CT will be back again.... maybe in 5 months?

Regarding the mid range forecasts..

Posted on the 15th. Gee, the models got it right again huh. Was showing this cool down even 2 weeks prior.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yup, can't stress this enough.. enjoy this week guys. Upper 60s/70s out there.
Get outside and breath it in.

Quickly looking at the Euro just now, it looks like models are starting to all agree that things will be changing next week for the colder.

Whoever said there wont be any below normal days till mid November I hope they have a small foot. LOL

Whooops.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Still, I see no below normal cold for the Tri-State area at least to mid November...so we all should save a bit on heating for the next 30 days or so:

So how's the climo theory working? Low 30s in CT is the extreme temps coming up. 40s is the extreme highs. So obviously cold = 30s/40s this time of year and we've been hitting those cold temps already.

Sometimes I wonder what some comments and thoughts are being based off of when they are off so many times. If no model supports the thinking its like pulling it out of a hat I guess.

[Csiko]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So how's the climo theory working? Low 30s in CT is the extreme temps coming up. 40s is the extreme highs. So obviously cold = 30s/40s this time of year and we've been hitting those cold temps already.

Sometimes I wonder what some comments and thoughts are being based off of when they are off so many times. If no model supports the thinking its like pulling it out of a hat I guess.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

People were calling for a massive cooling a month ago. And then it got pushed back, and then pushed back again. Now it's finally here sorta? And we're still not seeing anything outside seasonal. We'll see though.

I still don't believe we'll see much snow before February. It's kind of a hunch, but I'll be interested to see how it pans out. At this point I'm just calling it to see if I'm wrong 4 months from now.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Csiko

People were calling for a massive cooling a month ago.

Massive? A month ago? That's the thing... "people"... There are too many people out there without training or knowledge that blurts things out and gives false information. It's one thing to say "I think" there wont be any below normal days till mid November as opposed to "I see" no below normal cold coming up. Where? What? What is showing you this information there won't be below normal days? (not you personally, in general). There should be firm backup to the claim.

In fact, WP wrote a nice article on this. First line says it all... "Anyone can play meteorologist on Facebook"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/17/beware-of-faulty-flaky-facebook-weather-forecasts/

Originally Posted by Csiko

I still don't believe we'll see much snow before February. It's kind of a hunch, but I'll be interested to see how it pans out. At this point I'm just calling it to see if I'm wrong 4 months from now.

Thank You for your thoughts.. I would love to see more "thoughts" from everyone.

Do you think CT will benefit from coastal storms or clippers? Do you think there will be average snows Nov-Dec-Jan or just a few inches? Do you think it will be too cold to snow or too warm?

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Csiko

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

People were calling for a massive cooling a month ago. And then it got pushed back, and then pushed back again. Now it's finally here sorta? And we're still not seeing anything outside seasonal. We'll see though.

I still don't believe we'll see much snow before February. It's kind of a hunch, but I'll be interested to see how it pans out. At this point I'm just calling it to see if I'm wrong 4 months from now.

Its not kind of a hunch.....its TOTALLY a hunch

[Cambium]

Fall in Danbury. Who doesn't love a great range like this...

30s to 60s to 40s to 60 to 30s to 60s.
IEM | Site Info | DXR DANBURY MUNICIPAL

[Mixum]

so basically... reading between all the sarcasm.... its staying warm with no change or storms in site???

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Mixum

so basically... reading between all the sarcasm.... its staying warm with no change or storms in site???

No storms but it will go below normal temps from Wednesday on. In fact average high temps in Danbury are supposed to be about 59-60 this week. We will range from 50-55 all the way to next Monday according to NWS ..this is a decent departure below normal.

[Cambium]

NWS New York actual Weather Balloon Data from this morning. Love seeing these Inversions so its too cool not to post here too.. Been a lot of this past 2 months.

it was 35.5°F at 26 feet and as the balloon rose the temp rose to 52°F at 278 feet.

An incredible 16.5 degree increase with 252 in height. Hence the fog I saw in spots. in cases like this the higher elevation areas would NOT see frost and lower elevations would. Cool stuff!

SkewT graph from here. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/
Text Data from here. http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
OBS History from here http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/obhistory.php?station=FOK&network=NY_ASOS&year=201 3&month=10&day=21

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Csiko

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

People were calling for a massive cooling a month ago. And then it got pushed back, and then pushed back again. Now it's finally here sorta? And we're still not seeing anything outside seasonal. We'll see though.

I still don't believe we'll see much snow before February. It's kind of a hunch, but I'll be interested to see how it pans out. At this point I'm just calling it to see if I'm wrong 4 months from now.

Originally Posted by Mixum

so basically... reading between all the sarcasm.... its staying warm with no change or storms in site???

Let me mention a few things…

I know there are those who wait 7 months (April to late October) to finally see some cold weather…but keep in mind that the snow that occurred two years ago (2011) on the last day of October was truly a rare event. It was an extreme event, something that might happen once every 50 years ( maybe). Yet, now, (at least till the memory of this event fades) every October the gods of media, marketing, and meteorology will try so hard to hype up another chance of snow of a snowstorm in October. Even the chance of a snowstorm in November in the Tri-State area is rare – in the last 70 year on only 4 occasions ( 1953, 2012, 2002, 1988) has any snow event produced more than 1 or 2 inches of snow. Yet, they’ll market that 1% chance to get you to tune in to the nightly TV weatherman.

Don’t fall for it…for a real idea of what the LIKELY weather will be… look at the past.

To answer your question however, the pattern seems to be pointing to a dry(ish) and seasonable pattern in November. So if this is correct, we should see seasonable highs in the 50’s and lows in the 30’s and 40’s F and little snow. In the very short term….rain showers pull through on Tue night/Wed….followed by clearing and cool weather. Highs should be near 65 – 68 F on Tuesday, then cooling to mid 50’s F by the end of the week. This weekend is once again looking nice - highs in the mid 50’s, dry, and plenty of sunshine. In fact, after the rain mid week....I see bone dry weather again through the middle of next week (at least)...and no storms in sight:



Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 48.

Tuesday Isolated sprinkles between noon and 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 67.

Tuesday Night A slight chance of rain after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Rain likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.
Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night A slight chance of rain before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.

Sunday Sunny, with a high near 57.

Monday Sunny, with a high near 56.