[Wilton2ParkAve]

The urban heat effect strikes/exaggerated again. No 80s here for October and yesterday topped out at 59.

[Brian26]

Gorgeous fall day on tap for today. Enjoy it. Big changes coming though.
NWS Upton.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AND THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER STARK DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND ONWARD.

NWS Boston.

No records will be broken but we will be close.

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S /EXCEPT MID 30S TO LOW 40S AT WORCESTER AIRPORT/...SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THESE LEVELS BUT PROBABLY REMAINING ABOVE THEM.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Anything CAN HAPPEN….but long term climatology usually tells us what WILL HAPPEN.

My guess is that when you look at the odds of a true “noreaster “ occurring before mid November…the odds of it being cold enough to support even brief/wet flakes…and the odds of it being close enough to effect the Tri-State area….the chances are quite slim that we will see anything more than some rainshowers and gusty winds (near the coast) out of the storm (if it even develops) late next week. As we work through the final 10 days of the month - I do think we will be cooler (no more 70’s F), but I think temps will not be all that off seasonable norms. We have been so warm for so long that a high of 55 F will seem cool, but by late next week normal climate highs are like 59F for many area NWS stations.

As far as frost…that’s tough…the normal first frost in interior CT/NE NJ/and Hudson Valley is like October 20th …so a frost late next week is close to climatological. As far as the CT coast/Long Island/coastal NJ…etc the normal first frost is like November 8th or so, and my guess is those areas will not see frost until a bit closer to the first days of November. My normal first frost over the last 13 years here has averaged November 6th.

In a pattern like this...I see many cool downs... followed by warm ups.... followed by cool downs. I DO NOT see any truly cold air lasting long at this point.

Long term forecasts are predicting temps Wednesday to Friday to be 8-10 degrees BELOW normal. Then the final week should be 2-4 degrees below normal. Wow ..that earlier prediction of no colder than normal air was WAY OFF. The NWS should stick to 5-7 days out and leave the long range forecasting alone...its useless.

[Brian26]

Great writeup by WTNH's WX Edge. This sums it up great. Enjoy the next few days of these mild temps.

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Beautiful Today...But Winter-Like Soon

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By Sam Kantrow on October 20, 2013, 8:25am Last modified: October 20, 2013, 8:47am
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High pressure equaling happy weather today and tomorrow...the only negative thing will be some wind today. Otherwise, things look good for the next few days!

• Some scattered frost possible tonight with inland temps approaching the mid 30s.
• Nice and sunny tomorrow with not much wind.
• A cold front moves through on Tuesday, could see a few showers but not much.
• On the back side of this front are MUCH cooler temps, a good 5 degrees below average for this time of the year.
• Night temps near freezing Thursday morning onward.
• Some rain for Wednesday could end as a few snowflakes mixing with the rain in the Northwest Hills. I have ZERO concern for any accumulating snow or slickness on any roadways!

[Brian26]

Tonight is gong to be quite cold.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL END TODAY...SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES. HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A COUPLE OF OTHER ZONES...BUT WILL DEFER TO THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE.

[7 Wishes]

Wow NWS is now showing highs in the LOW 50s and lows in the UPPER 30s even along the coast/in NYC for Thurs/Fri, wow!

[wavehunter007]

I think NWS is getting closer to fine tuning the low pressure area that might develop mid week. It appears they seem to be leaning toward only a low chance of light rain across the Tri-State on Weds day. This came out about 30 minutes ago:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE GFS REMAINS THE WETTEST SOLN FOR WED INTO THU WITH LOW PRES
DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE AND TRACKING ACROSS THE BENCHMARK. THE NAM
DOESN/T DEVELOP A SFC LOW UNTIL WED NGT ACROSS THE MARITIMES...AND
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW E OF THE BENCHMARK. DESPITE THE NAM AND
ECMWF SOLNS...THERE IS A GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTER INVOF THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN...SO THE WETTER GFS IS NOT DISCOUNTED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FCST THRU THE PERIOD.

UPR TROF THEN SETS UP OVER THE NERN CONUS...BRINGING BREEZY AND COOL
AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE CWA. THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
SCT-BKN CU DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO...BUT THE CHCS ARE TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
WIDESPREAD 30S AT NGT WITH SOME SUBFREEZING TEMPS IN THE PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CAN BE EXPECTED

They also see the cooler weather coming as well. They seem to be saying lows by late next week could fall into the 30’s in the colder valleys and interior areas. So my guess is that parts of interior CT could see lows in the mid 30’s by this Friday. Coastal areas of southern CT/Long Island/NW NJ look to escape any frost but temps might still fall into the upper 30’s F.

So it looks like sunshine and mild temps continue for Monday and Tuesday, followed by a chance of light rain showers on Wed/Wed night…then sunshine and dry weather return for the rest of the week with the cooler air...with highs in the low/mid 50's and lows in the upper 30's:

[Brian26]

Thursday into saturday... As coastal low pushes well off into the maritimes...a strong ridge across the pacific will intensify and build. Simultaneously the trough over the region will deepen for the end of the week into the weekend. This will drop 850 mb temps between -2 to -6c degrees creating unseasonable temperatures. highs will struggle to get out of the mid 50s where lows drop into the 20s-30s...and many areas will most likely see there first hard freeze. the northwest portion of the region may see a few flakes/sprinkles during this timeframe from possible lake effect snow/rain showers. Otherwise expect dry weather for most of this period.

[jdhall1]

I just hope for not having another end of October snow storm, like the last 2 years otherwise I will go insane.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Brian26

Thursday into saturday... highs will struggle to get out of the mid 50s where lows drop into the 20s-30s...and many areas will most likely see there first hard freeze. [/b]the northwest portion of the region may see a few flakes/sprinkles during this timeframe from possible lake effect snow/rain showers. Otherwise expect dry weather for most of this period.

Keep in mind that while the mid 50's F will feel cool to most in the Tri-State area after we have been enjoying 60's and 70's all month....normal highs are not far off the mid 50's at most NWS area stations. I think by late next week normal highs are like 58 F at NWS Bridgeport/NYC and stations inland like Windsor Locks are like 56 F. So these cooler temps are not far from seasonable averages it seems.

Still after 70F a few days ago 55 F WILL feel cool. However, I think with this cool air will once again come DRY air. So with the sunshine we can't really complain I guess, it is almost November.