10-17-2013, 11:07 AM
10,007 posts, read
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Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mixum
This is what we get for a crappy summer. A very mild fall and winter
You still on this???....so I'll humor you. Explain how a "crappy" whatever that means summer..translates into a warm fall and winter. Help us out here ..give us something that makes sense.
10-17-2013, 11:08 AM
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Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
wavehunter007
I'm not sure what your basing "crappy summer on?
Actually July was warmer and drier than normal..but August was cooler and drier than normal which added up to a perfect month of weather. How this guy sees that as a crappy summer is baffling.
10-17-2013, 12:18 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read
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Current temps on left. GFS12z next Friday morning temps on right. Best of both worlds I guess. Enjoy the next 3-4 days.
10-17-2013, 01:58 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,295 posts, read
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Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Current temps on left. GFS12z next Friday morning temps on right. Best of both worlds I guess. Enjoy the next 3-4 days.
Wait there's something wrong on that map, 50s in Long Island vs. upper 20s in Danbury? I know there can be a big difference between the two in low temperature due to radiational cooling and being away from the water, but not as big as that! Besides if anything, the 50s would be in NYC itself and LI would be in the 40s in that scenario (you certainly would not have 50s on LI while only upper 30s in NYC at the same time as the map suggests).
10-17-2013, 02:01 PM
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Reputation: 1946
Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
Wait there's something wrong on that map, 50s in Long Island vs. upper 20s in Danbury? I know there can be a big difference between the two in low temperature due to radiational cooling and being away from the water, but not as big as that! Besides if anything, the 50s would be in NYC itself and LI would be in the 40s in that scenario (you certainly would not have 50s on LI while only upper 30s in NYC at the same time as the map suggests).
Actually cutting to the chase on your observations; 40s apparently do not exist.
10-17-2013, 02:12 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Brian26
Don't worry you will be lighting the stove soon Cam. Have you checked out the GFS 192. LOL It's nice to start seeing snow on the models.
A Facebook site I'm on called Tri-State Weather had the following to say about it:
Fact Check: Many of you have asked us about a fantasy 'major winter storm' for next week that you have seen others mention. Let's be very clear. Those talking, hyping and/or discussing this as a real possibility are highly irresponsible to say the least. They are hyping and fear mongering a non-event. This has a near zero chance of happening with the pattern we are in and there is no support at this time from all other guidance and even it's own ensembles. This hyping is a disservice to everyone and when a real threat emerges those following these hype everything groups will not take it seriously, as we saw with Sandy last year. As always, you can count on us to provide you with the real no-hype forecast. Remember, no hype, just get the forecast right!
10-17-2013, 02:15 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read
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Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
Wait there's something wrong on that map, 50s in Long Island vs. upper 20s in Danbury? I know there can be a big difference between the two in low temperature due to radiational cooling and being away from the water, but not as big as that! Besides if anything, the 50s would be in NYC itself and LI would be in the 40s in that scenario (you certainly would not have 50s on LI while only upper 30s in NYC at the same time as the map suggests).
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wilton2ParkAve
Actually cutting to the chase on your observations; 40s apparently do not exist.
Nice catches. The gradient might be crazy because the air above is so cold which is bringing it down to the surface meanwhile the ocean is well above normal and so warm.
There are 40s on that map but very tight. Faded blues are 40s too next to green. I think the warm ocean is playing a role there..
Also.. GFS isn't Hi-Resolution so it can't pick out Heat Islands and Higher elevations so well.
Attached is another source but the day before. Notice 50s on Long Island. upper 20s possible in Litchfield.
10-17-2013, 02:40 PM
10,007 posts, read
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Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
A Facebook site I'm on called Tri-State Weather had the following to say about it:Fact Check: Many of you have asked us about a fantasy 'major winter storm' for next week that you have seen others mention. Let's be very clear. Those talking, hyping and/or discussing this as a real possibility are highly irresponsible to say the least. They are hyping and fear mongering a non-event. This has a near zero chance of happening with the pattern we are in and there is no support at this time from all other guidance and even it's own ensembles. This hyping is a disservice to everyone and when a real threat emerges those following these hype everything groups will not take it seriously, as we saw with Sandy last year. As always, you can count on us to provide you with the real no-hype forecast. Remember, no hype, just get the forecast right!
Love that ..no hype , get the forecast right! Wish weather folks would follow that advice.
10-17-2013, 03:23 PM
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That's what makes it fun. Don't ever watch the movie big fish
10-17-2013, 07:07 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,295 posts, read
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Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Nice catches. The gradient might be crazy because the air above is so cold which is bringing it down to the surface meanwhile the ocean is well above normal and so warm.
I've noticed that GFS often tries to make LI warmer than NYC for nighttime lows, but it rarely is the case in reality. Cape Cod being warmer than NYC for a low sometimes happens though......(but not often either)
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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Housing units in structures - 2 (%)
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Housing units in structures - 20 to 49 (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Sales and related occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Construction and extraction occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Production, transportation, and material moving occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Production occupations (%)
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People in Group quarters - Military disciplinary barracks (%)
People in Group quarters - State prisons (%)
People in Group quarters - Other types of correctional institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Nursing homes (%)
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People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards and hospices for chronically ill (%)
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People in Group quarters - Military hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
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People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the mentally retarded (%)
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People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
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People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
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People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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