11-21-2013, 04:15 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Bundle up the kids this morning...
2nd coldest Minimum of season for me. 26.5° here. Light winds from North. Clear Skies. 19 Danbury. 20 Windsor Locks. 30 Bridgeport. 26 New Haven. Bridgeport again the warm spot.
We warm up to 40s today and tomorrow 50s then the real cold stuff comes in..
11-21-2013, 05:33 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Do you guys remember way back then when we used to have cold holidays and very cold winters? Well... Thanksgiving looks cold with scattered flurries around. And after tomorrow there might not be any turning back.
1st column is temps, 2nd column is temps at 4000' above our heads. Latest GFS says 850mb temps stay below freezing after Friday until the end of its run (December 7th). Surface temps are cold as well staying below 50 during day and 20s/30s at night.
Of course anything after next week can change but the fact that I'm not seeing the opposite is a tell tale sign what type of pattern we are in and entering. No warm torch pattern like some previous years.
Record Lows possible Monday says Upton. This morning Danbury, BDL, and Willimantic all hit 17°. Last November (Top 10 coolest) Danbury Did not even go below 20.
11-21-2013, 06:02 AM
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That storm is gone camb?
11-21-2013, 06:14 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mixum
That storm is gone camb?
See my blog and ask me there. There's no trolls in there and this way we don't use up a thousand pages in here.
I'll use this thread for OBS and a few short term updates for Connecticut.. You'll see snow showers on Sunday and Tuesday. Typical winter stuff.
11-21-2013, 06:46 AM
Location: USA East Coast
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Quite this morning across the whole Tri-State area = temps fell into the upper teens in the interior and into the 20’s across other parts of the region. Right now still some low 20’s in parts of northern CT and northern NJ…to mid 20,s, 30’s and a few 40’s in coastal areas (Long island is warmest):
Today begins the slow moderation of temps until Sunday: We should head toward upper 40's - 50 F today, Friday, and Saturday. Light RAIN showers should move through on Friday into early Saturday, then dry and sunny weather thereafter. Today we should make near 50 F in some spots:\
Last edited by wavehunter007; 11-21-2013 at 07:11 AM ..
11-21-2013, 06:53 AM
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mixum
That storm is gone camb?
It does appear to be little issues with any storm next week in the Tri-State area. As is typical, I think using the early runs of the models by some people are good for drumming up excitement/
hype ...but the models generally always come around to a more
logical and seasonal forecast. It's likely a good thing, a little rainy weather on Tuesday maybe Wed, then sunny skies and cold and dry weather for the Thanksgiving holiday should make for little travel issues from the NY/NJ/CT area southward.
000
FXUS61 KOKX 211150
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
650 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013
AFTER MONDAY...LARGER DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR WITH THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. 21/00Z GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN
STREAM LESS AMPLIFIED THAN EARLIER RUNS...EVEN QUICKLY BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT IN THE GFS KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM FARTHER SOUTH...AND THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
MEANWHILE...THE 21/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTHERN STREAM MORE
AMPLIFIED...ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN LOW TO BE ABSORBED QUICKER ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW...IN SOMEWHAT OF A
STRUNG-OUT MANNER...MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SOLUTION DOES
APPEAR TO HAVE MORE 21/00Z ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. IN TURN...DID NOT STRAY
MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID NOT GET FANCY WITH PTYPE
CONSIDERING THIS IS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM...
BUT THE CURRENT ...WITH SOME SNOW IN
THE INTERIOR PRIMARILY LATE WEDNESDAY.
11-21-2013, 07:13 AM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,295 posts, read
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
wavehunter007
It does appear to be little issues with any storm next week in the Tri-State area. As is typical, I think using the early runs of the models by some people are good for drumming up excitement/
hype ...but the models generally always come around to a more
logical and seasonal forecast. It's likely a good thing, a little rainy weather on Tuesday maybe Wed, then sunny skies and cold and dry weather for the Thanksgiving holiday should make for little travel issues from the NY/NJ/CT area southward.
000
FXUS61 KOKX 211150
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
650 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013
AFTER MONDAY...LARGER DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR WITH THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. 21/00Z GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN
STREAM LESS AMPLIFIED THAN EARLIER RUNS...EVEN QUICKLY BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT IN THE GFS KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM FARTHER SOUTH...AND THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
MEANWHILE...THE 21/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTHERN STREAM MORE
AMPLIFIED...ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN LOW TO BE ABSORBED QUICKER ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW...IN SOMEWHAT OF A
STRUNG-OUT MANNER...MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SOLUTION DOES
APPEAR TO HAVE MORE 21/00Z ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. IN TURN...DID NOT STRAY
MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID NOT GET FANCY WITH PTYPE
CONSIDERING THIS IS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM...
BUT THE CURRENT ...WITH SOME SNOW IN
THE INTERIOR PRIMARILY LATE WEDNESDAY.
In agreement with this in that most other weather forums and FB pages I've been on seem to think that all rain south of I-84 and nothing sticking between there and an I-88/I-90 line except in the Catskills (but definitely snow north and west of that).
11-21-2013, 07:36 AM
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This morning featured the coldest temps I've seen yet this season: 18 degrees in Marlborough.
11-21-2013, 07:39 AM
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
In agreement with this in that most other weather forums and FB pages I've been on seem to think that all rain south of I-84 and nothing sticking between there and an I-88/I-90 line except in the Catskills (but definitely snow north and west of that).
Agree...that seems very logical at this point.
I think any travel issues this Thanksgiving Holiday will all be north and west of the East Coast. Any precip that falls will be rain from Rhode island south to North Carolina. Maybe the highest elevations of the Appachalns might see some snow, otherwise it will be too warm. The 540 line actually come up after the cold blast on Sunday, and by Tue is actually above CT again, so it would be hard to get snow below that.
If your looking for a good logical (and non - hype) forecaster to follow...read/watch E. Abrams. He is logical and methodical, and witty too - lol. Here is todays post, he shows how the GFS and Euro (and 540 line) would all give rain to the East Coast:
Cold Wave on the Way - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog Weather Blog
11-21-2013, 07:59 AM
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,125 posts, read
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Reputation: 4107
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mels
This morning featured the coldest temps I've seen yet this season: 18 degrees in Marlborough.
Yes, I was shocked when my car thermometer popped down from 23 to 19 as I was driving by Marlborough on Rt 2 this morning!
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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Housing units in structures - 2 (%)
Housing units in structures - 3 or 4 (%)
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Housing units in structures - 20 to 49 (%)
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People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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I'll use this thread for OBS and a few short term updates for Connecticut.. You'll see snow showers on Sunday and Tuesday. Typical winter stuff.
