[El Scorcho]

Still in the upper 30s here. Great day to be working outside!

El Scorcho

[wavehunter007]

It was cold here today also- never got above 45 F. The highest hourly temp I saw was Bridgeport at 50 F and New Haven 48 F. Not sure if they were the highs, but since I hit only 45 F they could not have been much warmer than me. Wind made it feel colder, but I least that sun was shinning brightly.

Should start to get warmer by late week. East Coast should see highs from 50's (north) to 70's F (well south). Glad I live on the East Coast and don't live up in the Upper Midwest - look at Minot 18 F high on Friday! :

[andthentherewere3]

The wind today made being outdoors very cold and unpleasant, it was very windy.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

The wind today made being outdoors very cold and unpleasant, it was very windy.

Looking at the recent OBS, 4pm the winds are making it feel like 38 in New Haven, feels like 32 in Danbury, 33 at Windsor Locks, 33 in White Plains. And this isn't even as cold as the next air mass.

[El Scorcho]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Looking at the recent OBS, 4pm the winds are making it feel like 38 in New Haven, feels like 32 in Danbury, 33 at Windsor Locks, 33 in White Plains. And this isn't even as cold as the next air mass.

It was 35 here at 4 pm. I wonder what the wind chill was. I love working outside in the cold. I got a LOT of stumps pulled up today.

[Cambium]

Thanksgiving Storm Update::

Afternoon updates took a turn for the worst for travelers next week. Still lots of time to watch. Last time GFS was dead on while Euro was wrong. GFS now shows a big coastal snowstorm north of I-84. Canadian shows huge snowstorm north of I-90. Have to see how many times this is shown next few updates.

NWS Boston jumped right in and says if this coastal does happen it's going to be snow. The setup is there.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
554 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2013

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -18C. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR A WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT. HOWEVER WITH THIS APPROACHING A BUSY TRAVEL TIME...IT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. FOR NOW KEPT A CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBILITY FOR A
COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT THEN A THE PRECIP WOULD MAINLY BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW RATHER THEN RAIN...HOWEVER IT IS STILL TO
DIFFICULT TO EXACTLY PINPOINT THE THERMAL FIELDS AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER MODEL
ALIGNMENT FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

[wavehunter007]

According to meteorologist Henry Maursity – the storm in/close to Thanksgiving should not be an issue for travel for us in the Tri-State area. If the storm does develop, all areas below Massachuttes will see only rain, at least the way he sees the forecast now. So we in the Tri-State would see only rain and no real travel issues.

This is where the GFS shows the snowfall for the “computer storm” near Thanksgiving. The look on his face says it all;




Henry has more here:

Snow From the Rockies to the Upper Midwest - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog

[Cambium]

Wow. I didn't expect this for tonight. Maybe upper teens in spots?

NWS New York.

"It will be a very cold Wednesday morning across the Tri-State area as temperatures fall well into the 20s. The warmest readings will be near New York City where temperatures in the low 30s are expected. Some outlying, interior locations such as Danbury, CT and Middletown, NY could see readings in the upper teens. Bundle up as you head off to work or school in the morning!"

[Cambium]

Funny how I thought there was snow last year the same time. Interesting. Re-capping from last year...

Originally Posted by Cambium

Update on next weeks 28th-29th Storm.

Euro has a GLC(Great Lakes Cutter) Rain for us
GFS00z has nothing but another cold front with precip
GFS latest run has this..
A 968mb low just north of the border. Basically phases with the sub Jet a little too late for southern New England to get the snowstorm but.. snow does get thrown.

It ended up snowing with 3-4 inches for higher elevations of CT. 3-6" in NJ & PA. and it was the first time on record that Bridgeport ever had 2 snow events with more than a trace in the month of November.

So far this fall the GFS is looking better than the Euro... we'll see how the trend goes in the upcoming days for next week and even this weekend.

[wavehunter007]

Here is Weather Channels forecast for the big travel day this coming Wed:

Seems to shows clouds and highs on the East Coast in the 40's and 50's F (north) and 60's and 70's (south), maybe some rain/wet mix up in Boston:




In short term....one more cold day, then we warm on Thur/Fri: