Winter Thread 2018-19 (Northern Hemisphere) (Rochester, snow, warm, recorded)

[chicagogeorge]

Gfs says cold just getting started

https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX/sta...06345479811072

[Isleofpalms85]

^^^^^^^^^


I’ll enjoy the cold and snow while it lasts.......but, I sure hope to god that the eastern two thirds of the lower 48 doesn’t get jipped out of a spring season again this year

[Cambium]

So I'm getting asked from family, friends, and forums why we're seeing cold, then when precip comes in it gets warm, then cold comes back. Been like this all winter pretty much. Still happening.


I see these 3 Things as the reason.....


1. No Blocking in North Atlantic.


Things have been flowing in and out. Nothing can get "stuck" without some blocking so the cold and warm haven't been hanging around long. It's also hard for coastal storms to come up the coast.


The NAO is an indicator of this. Negative = blocking. It's been pretty much neutral all winter.







2. Pacific Origin.


I have noticed the moisture from majority of these storms is coming from the Pacific. You can use the Water Vapor maps to see this. This was for yesterdays storm, note the fetch is connected to the Pacific.


This is bringing in warmer air into the mix. Hence it's warming up when the precip moves in. So before and after precip is around it's able to be very cold. As soon as the precip moves in, it warms up. Pacific air always wins.


If you want to get deeper into why, just look at the 500mb pattern. Note California just had a 3 week wet pattern. Jet stream dipping in the West a lot this winter. Not a good sign for snowstorms on the East coast,.





3. Storm Tracks


Look at all the storm tracks for December and January. Only 2 had a favorable track for a "big city" snowstorm. Dec 17th and Jan 5th. Unfortunately timing was bad as there wasn't enough cold air around for those.


But when you have tracks going west of you, its not going to be snow.


When you don't have a digging trough in the East with a coastal storm coming up, most likely it wont be all snow.





Lastly......... We are heading into end of January and Many still haven't had more than the November snowstorm yet.


Here are the Snow totals after the Mid November snow..

0.4" Newark
0.7" NYC
0.7" Islip
1.5" in Bridgeport
1.7" in Boston
1.9" Providence
2.7" Philly
2.9" Allentown
7.1" Hartford
8.5" Scranton

[NWNJ]

High of NINE degrees today with a windchill of -9

At least it probably won't get any worse than today. Only upwards from here, lol

[speagles84]

Low was -1F this morning. High has been 8F so far.... cold cold day

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by NWNJ

High of NINE degrees today with a windchill of -9

At least it probably won't get any worse than today. Only upwards from here, lol

Originally Posted by speagles84

Low was -1F this morning. High has been 8F so far.... cold cold day

Impressive day now. Wasn't too impressed this mornings low but now I am. Mid afternoon only 10F here and the sun is dropping and the winds continue.




4 Panel map. Temps, Wind Gusts, Wind Chills, and Dews.


Only 3° at 3:30pm at Hartford-BDL??


If the Max of 3° holds there, it will be the coldest January Max temp since 1981. 2nd coldest on record (since 1905). 1957 didn't pass 1°




Zoomed out..


Temps and Upper heights. That Upper level low is right over us. HUGE reason for this and the winds. It's a Vortex spinning aloft and that frigid air aloft is mixing down to surface!

[cBach]

62 and sunny in Austin. We're warmer than most of Northern Florida, haha!

Kids out on scooters and bikes (it's MLK Day). I bet Lady Bird Lake Trail is jam packed. I put the plants back outside. All while most of the East Coast is freezing! I love it - this is why I live here!

[Omegaraptor]

46ºF/8ºC and partly sunny.

[Randomguy1234]

Yellow warning of ice tomorrow with possible showers of sleet and snow here

[nei]

brr

https://twitter.com/nysmesonet/statu...38261084217345