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After warmer temps here Dec 23-28, maybe cooler temps coming back by the 29th. The latest GFS run even shows a bit of snow across north Louisiana on New Years Day!
Rain is done for now and one more line of heavy rain 100 miles offshore from me and that has to the be the front. Once it goes by the wind will start to scream out of the northwest.
really warm mid-levels 850 hPa / about 4500 feet. Above 10°C in New England tomorrow with 2+ inches of rain. RIP New England mountain snowpack.
coastal New England forecast forecast to get gusts up to 55 mph. Squally! Not a true 'Noreaster as the track is too inland… and the wind is coming from the south. Diagram of the storm dynamic:
from the Mt. Washington Observatory. Warm air already there at 4300 feet, maybe that's the "low level jet" in the diagram. Cold air damming below and just not filtering down below yet.
4 Maps. Jet stream digging to the Gulf yet there's no true cold air over the U.S.
46° in Pensacola this morning, 60° in NYC.
Radar and temps. Shorts day?
I hear the winds outside. You know there's a storm nearby! Wind barbs here showing Long Island gusting over 30mph. No wind on the interior. Funny to see.
Low Level Jet stream strongest over the coast this morning. 75mph at 2500' right now. WOW
2 Low Pressures? 990mb Low over Erie, PA and one over the Southeast
Quick Disco from NWS NY
Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Intensifying low pressure will track up the spine of the
Appalachians through today. The low will move across New England
tonight and then into southeastern Canada on Saturday.
A significant rain event for
the area is still on track, with model consensus remaining
consistent in the potential for generally a 2-3 inch rainfall event,
and locally higher amounts. Warm advection continues to strengthen
this morning ahead of a potent long wave trough. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates PWAT values near 1.5-1.8 inch just south of the forecast
area, with a strong low level jet quickly advecting this moisture
northward. These values will approach if not exceed record values
for time of year. Rainfall has steadily been increasing in coverage
and intensity, with the first heavy batch expected to move through
coincident with the warm frontal passage, impacting the morning
commute. Although there may be a brief lull after the warm front
moves through, thereafter the flow becomes largely parallel to the
approaching surface boundary, with a line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing. Training of cells will be possible,
leading to locally higher amounts, in addition to any heavier
rainfall rates that may occur with thunderstorms and/or local
orographic enhancements. Rainfall rates may exceed 1"/hr at times.
Latest consensus seems to place this heavier axis roughly over
northeastern NJ, the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, western Long Island
and CT initially before shifting eastward late in the day. Though
there could be variability in where the heavier rainfall actually
sets up, given antecedent rainfall/soil moisture, flash flood
guidance remains on the low side for these areas. The flood watch
remains in place.
Latest model guidance and current trends indicating that winds and
gusts will continue to increase as the low rapidly deepens and
tracks to the north and northeast through tonight. Latest VAD winds
showing 950MB winds, around 2000ft, at 41kt which is near the NAM
and GFS of 45kt. The low level jet of 70-80kt will move into Long Island by 12Z and then track to the north and northeast ahead of the surface low. Still expecting sustained winds to increase to 30-35
mph along the coastal region, as a low level inversion will keep the
higher jet winds from mixing down. The NAM remains stronger than the
GFS with the strength of the low level inversion, so there is some
concern as to how much the higher jet winds will mix to the surface.
Limited mixing possible with gusts possibly reaching around 45 mph,
and to 45 to 50 mph along the immediate coast, later this morning
into this afternoon. The wind advisory will remain in effect for the
same areas and timeframe, with the expectation that criteria will be
meet more with the sustained winds.
Temperatures will continue to rise to near or above record high values in the upper 50s to lower 60s today. Record daily rainfall amounts will also be possible. See climate section below for more
info.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The long wave trough and attendant low level jet/moisture axis
quickly shift east of the area tonight. Although there will
still be potential for showers given the lingering upper
disturbance, rainfall rates/accumulations will be lighter
compared to today. The cold front then moves through during the
morning, with strong cold advection leading to yet another non
diurnal trend as temperatures gradually lower through the day.
Winds will remain breezy following the frontal passage.
Wind is puffing out of the northwest and since i am right on the gulf i get the worst of it. Blowing around 30 knts with gust to around 40 for now. Fast moving areas of rain during the day. Back to boring weather next week. I won't be fishing offshore today with 15 footers. But fishing will be very good by Monday with all the fish stacked up on the big 30 to 60ft high peaks 80 miles offshore with dirty water after a wind event like this.
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