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Old 02-01-2018, 05:42 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,626 posts, read 75,673,923 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
There's a large drought-free area in southeast Texas; I guess that's the area that got drenched by Harvey?
That's what I would of thought but I just read this... Looks like rain did fall there and so they didn't add them into the drought status. Not sure if Harvey is a factor since it was many months ago. That moisture is long gone now. Not 100% sure though if they use rains from so many months ago


Quote:
D0-D1 were pulled back slightly in southeastern Texas where over an inch of rain fell this week, but otherwise the South saw large areas of degradation. D0-D3 expanded in Oklahoma and Texas, D1 nudged slightly further across extreme northwestern Arkansas, and D0-D1 expanded in Tennessee. Locally 1-3 inches of rain fell across parts of southeastern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas, but the dryness was so severe here that the rain only staved off further deterioration. The County Executive Director for Wagoner and Mayes Counties in Oklahoma reported that all of the winter wheat crop was in either poor or very poor condition, and some producers were selling cattle early due to poor grazing fields; the Oklahoma State Climatologist reported several counties have issued burn bans in response to a rash of fires which resulted, in part, from the prolonged drought. As relayed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), agricultural impacts from the drought are being felt in Utah, Kansas, and Oklahoma and include decreasing hay and soybean yields, deteriorating wheat and grazing conditions, and decreasing water supplies -- ponds and wells going dry. Some of these effects started from moisture deficits dating back to summer 2017. Some stations in the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma haven’t had any precipitation for the last 3 months, including Amarillo, Texas where the last day with measurable precipitation was October 13, 2017, and Woodward, Oklahoma, which has gone over 100 days without measurable precipitation.
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Old 02-01-2018, 05:55 AM
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Location: Western Massachusetts
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didn't realize it was so dry there. I know California has had a ridge lately off and on, has there been similar over the deep south and Texas?
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Old 02-01-2018, 05:57 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,642,171 times
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GFS has 3 feet of snow over the Whites, GEM less but plenty over the Berkshires

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...30281184391169
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Old 02-01-2018, 06:17 AM
 
Location: Seattle area
9,182 posts, read 12,163,030 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
You get any plants budding with the near lack of freezes?
Not yet. It's too early.
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Old 02-01-2018, 08:09 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,626 posts, read 75,673,923 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
GFS has 3 feet of snow over the Whites, GEM less but plenty over the Berkshires

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...391169/photo/1

Have you been watching each model update for this storm Sunday?? Yesterday I posted in the CT Weather thread a couple of them. GFS was 60 miles away from NYC and this area from having a big snowstorm. Euro was 20 miles off. TWENTY!


The track is key as usual of course. Either Interior will get big snows and me rain or me big snows and less for interior. There will always be winners and losers.


225+ replies in the storm thread here. Good info as usual.



Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
didn't realize it was so dry there. I know California has had a ridge lately off and on, has there been similar over the deep south and Texas?

1. While there's been plenty of storms and active pattern across the U.S past 2 months the amount of precip amount has been lacking with each storm and front.. (must be the warming atmosphere holding so much water Had to).


2. I drew out the majority of the paths of precip and storms in black. The blue indicates the fronts we had and moisture drawn from the Gulf of Mexico.


Kinda been missing that area of Texas and Oklahoma so droughts becoming worse there cause they simply are missing out. Seattle was well above normal precip in January because there was no true ridge pumping that far north.


The ridge has seemed more common over the Pacific than the Western U.S this winter.




For Northern Texas and Oklahoma to get out of that drought the Jet stream needs to dive down in Western U.S so the storms can come from the Pacific and ride it.


OR


A Southeast ridge form and expand westward.


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Old 02-01-2018, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,626 posts, read 75,673,923 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpvan View Post
What would that mean for the forgotten portion of the US?

I'm assuming more of the same?
Did you do some jinxing? Then again lets make my early Spring prediction here happen.

Latest GFS puts the Polar Vortex western Canada and has warming over the Eastern U.S. Alaska and PacNW will experience extreme or long duration cold and snow if this happens.

wonder where that PV split goes!

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/959064395270774784
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Old 02-01-2018, 09:23 AM
 
29,594 posts, read 19,714,810 times
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Split coming!!


https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...99369902497793
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Old 02-01-2018, 09:27 AM
 
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I highly doubt that the PV will position itself over western North America


https://twitter.com/judah47/status/959099921973510146
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Old 02-01-2018, 10:57 AM
 
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Very exciting. Prospects of a PV split is growing!


https://twitter.com/judah47/status/959122832365105153
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Old 02-01-2018, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,626 posts, read 75,673,923 times
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40° here expecting rain to start then change to snow overnight.

Quote:
.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will cross the Middle Atlantic region tonight. High
pressure will build across the area Friday through Saturday as
its center passes south of the area.

Latest surface analysis depicts the surface cold front crossing
western PA, heading east.

11:30am-3:30pm loop...
Raining in parts of PA and Virginia now.
Kentucky & Southern Indiana getting snow again.

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