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Was a nice winter day today. Morning low around -8C, daytime max of 0C, a bit of snow on the ground, very clear and crisp. Not -40C as I would want, but a satisfying day nonetheless.
rather cold for NYC; was 8°F (-13°C) here. Clearing skies earl in the night + fresh snow = lots of radiational cooling.
coldest in between the summit and mountain bottom. 5300 feet temperatures are obscured in my screenshot but they were quite cold, similar to below. Warmed up by the summit corresponded to being above the clouds.
Lake Michigan is around 25% ice covered right now with all obviously concentrated along the coasts, especially between Milwaukee and Chicago and at the far north end. But the middle of the lake still has water temperatures in the upper 30s around 40F. They still had a lake effect snow band affecting northwest Indiana this past Monday. Usually its at its worst when winds come down from the north and create a long, powerful single band of snow down the length of the lake. It isn't near iced over enough to stop that.
Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjoseph
Even ice doesn't do a whole lot to stop the lake machine sometimes. For example, lake erie is nearly covered but Buffalo has had about 8" of new snow the past 36 hours.
Ice does shut it off but maybe it was because it's not thick enough or because not all of the lake is iced over and that little opening helped create a band?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadgerFilms
Springlike weather today. Everything is mucky. On the plus side, I was finally about to make a big snowman.
Another heavy rainstorm coming here Tuesday. More Mud. At least the ground isn't drying up for Spring crops.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texyn
Central Florida got quite some cold as well, most intense since 2010-2011. Orlando, for instance, hit 27F.
Yup.. Normal low is 49.. They dropped to 27° and only had a max of 53°.
Even ice doesn't do a whole lot to stop the lake machine sometimes. For example, lake erie is nearly covered but Buffalo has had about 8" of new snow the past 36 hours.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1256 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018
Off Lake Erie...
The extensive ice cover is doing little to slow the lake effect process, with visible satellite imagery showing multiple streamers of lake effect clouds coming right off the icepack in the central basin of the lake. The ice appears fairly thin in this area. There can still be sensible heat flux through thin ice, but not latent heat flux or moisture flux. There is a small patch of open water between Chautauqua County and Long Point over the deepest part of the lake, which is adding some moisture.
The setup remains the same through mid to late afternoon with lake
induced equilibrium levels around 6K feet and a favorable layer of
dendritic crystal growth beneath the inversion. By early this
evening the inversion lowers further to below 5K feet, and most of
the dendritic crystal growth zone is removed. This should allow the
lake effect snow to end, at least temporarily. Until then, expect
additional accumulations of 2-3 inches this afternoon across
northern Erie County, with 1-2 inches in adjacent areas. The high
shear environment is forcing a wider area of snow than normal. This
will bring totals to around 6 inches since before daybreak. The snow
is very fluffy with little water content, adding to the snow amounts.
By Thursday morning, forecast BUFKIT soundings show the inversion
growing a little higher again to about 5K feet. More importantly,
the layer beneath this moistens again with a favorable dendritic
growth zone developing again. This may allow some lake effect snow
to re-develop, focused on the Buffalo Metro Area. Mesoscale models
are for the most part showing little or nothing, but then again,
that was the case today as well. The model guidance is likely not
handling the impacts of thin ice cover appropriately. Given the
return of marginal conditions, increased POPS to likely with 1-2
inches of accumulation for Thursday near Buffalo.
Thanks for finding the explanation. The last time Lake Michigan was close to icing over completely was 2014, I think. Even then, it was still about 85% iced over. I can't remember what kind of effect that might have had on the lake effect. I used to live up that way in the South Bend area but since I moved south 10 years ago, I don't pay as much attention to the lake effect machine.
Thanks for finding the explanation. The last time Lake Michigan was close to icing over completely was 2014, I think. Even then, it was still about 85% iced over. I can't remember what kind of effect that might have had on the lake effect. I used to live up that way in the South Bend area but since I moved south 10 years ago, I don't pay as much attention to the lake effect machine.
I'd have to check some maps in 2014 but maybe there wasn't the right setup for any LES that year? Winds, Temps, Instability, ect.
I wonder how this warmup will effect the Lake Ice..
Here's this mornings upper height and 5000' temps..
I could of bumped up the Jet stream more in central area but the overall look is here. Cool trough leaving Northeast. Ridge was pumped so far north days ago (see pic below), now flattening and moving East so here comes the warmup. All while the PacNW is inside the cold trough now but without deep arctic air there.
The Arctic air is bottled up over northern Quebec and will have to rotate all the way around to find the U.S again. Maybe in a week? Maybe February?
This is how it looked 4 days ago..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Interesting discussion from NWS Minneapolis and a map to show it. Reason why the Arctic Air is leaving is...........
Temperatures look flat with altitude. Summit is reading 100% humidity in the diagram, right around 8 am the fog llifted and there was undercast but before and after it went back to being in the clouds
Hurricane-force winds forecast tonight and tomorrow on the summit. Supposed to warm up tomorrow, shouldn't a ridge bring placid weather? Checking the 850 hPa map, there's a low over central Quebec, the pressure difference between the low and ridge to the south is creating 60-70 mph winds over the Northeast, where the pressure gradient is highest. And then the shape of the mountain amplifies the winds, gusts should break 100 mph
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