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Will post temp map in a bit. Only 21°F here at 11:30am? Check out the 850mb temp observed this morning. High ratio snowfall tonight.
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
1015 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017
Quick update to include mention of isolated flurries today. Low level dew points are in the single digits, so do not expect
anything widespread.
Strong low pressure will track into the Canadian Maritimes
today as high pressure builds across the southeast states. An
arctic airmass is already in place as observed by the 12z OKX
RAOB. The sounding observed an 850 mb temperature of -17C, which is about a degree higher than the min observed value of -18.2C for December 13 per SPC Sounding Climatology page, which dates back to 1957.
Anomalous upper level trough and closed low swing across this morning, and then lift into the Canadian Maritimes this
afternoon and evening with brief height rises ahead of another
strong vort max swinging across the Great Lakes.
Have lowered high temperatures several degrees with this update.
Highs will be in the middle and upper 20s for most locations
away from the coast, with highs around 30 across Long Island,
NYC metro, and coastal Connecticut. These temperatures combined
with the wind will make it feel like the single digits this
morning and teens this afternoon.
Strong vort max swings around the mean upper trough tonight with
just enough lift to develop light snow overnight from west to
east. Strong lift from the vort max should be enough to
overcome limited moisture. Cold atmosphere in place should lead to a higher ratio, dry light snowfall into the early morning hours. Current mesoscale guidance indicates slightly better
moisture near the coast, so amounts could be a bit higher there.
Overall less than inch expected inland to around an inch at the
coast. This will be refined once the full 12z suite of model
data is available.
The light snow ends during just after sunrise with high pressure
building in behind the passing low. High temperatures on
Thursday will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Wind Gusts... You can see the Clipper Storm. South winds for Illinois, NorthWest for Iowa.. Winds gusting to 30mph here still. 12 straight hours now..
With that said, it feels like this midday with the winds.. Single Digits here with flurries around.. High ratio Snow coming tonight.
Surface temps. Above normal in Southern Iowa, Below normal from Maine to Florida. Pretty Street clouds over the Atlantic due to the cold airmass above it. Ocean effect snows
The latest GFS run shows the cold further east and coming in more quickly Christmas weekend, with sleet/ice over central Louisiana on Christmas Eve!
Yeah, it's going to be about the timing of that front and how much moisture gets drawn into it. How fast the cold can come in with moisture still around. At least many of us are getting in on the activity this month. Not a boring pattern..
This setup is similar to what just happened on the 9th but a bit warmer for East of the Apps
Latest GFS Christmas Eve Eve morning. 10 days away. Once that front exits the coast a coastal storm could develop for the 26th.
Is there a good chance of a snowy Christmas in the West? I will be in Colorado (Denver and Glenwood Springs) from the 25th-28th and am hoping for some snow.
Thanks for confirming. Looks like accuweather is calling for around 2 feet of snow there this weekend.
Number of days per month in St. John's warmer than Dec 10 (excluding ties of 64 degrees) in 2017:
source: accuweather
November: 0
October: 2 (65,66)
September: 8 (71,75,79,76,73,67,65,68,68)
August: 19 (highest: 79 three days in a row)
July: 26 (highest: 81)
June: 16 (highest: 78) note: June 5 recorded a high of 42 and a low of 36
May: 1 (66) May 21 was recorded as last >1 inch snowfall
April: 0 (highest: 57)
March: 0 (highest: 49)
February: 0 (highest: 49)
January: 0 (highest: 47)
Winter weather advisory posted for the entire Pittsburgh metropolitan area. 3-5" expected for me, and 4-7" in the mountains north and east. It's starting to snow now
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