February & Early March 2016 U.S Stormy Pattern (Rain & Snowstorms) (warmest, place)
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Current Alerts. A lot of states included with winter weather tonight and tomorrow. Just from the trough, shortwave, & Instability. There is a low pressure developing though.
This is what the Euro shows. Strange track but a storm from the South starts heading into the Ohio Valley (This would typically bring warmth into the Northeast) but then it stalled and transfers to a new coastal storm that forms off North Carolina. That becomes the main storm and it tracks it right into New England.
Would be a snow to rain situation for most. Heavy rains too!
Meanwhile... here's the GFS ... No Storm to Ohio Valley, it takes the southern storm and stays more suppressed and then goes OTS
But notice where the 540 rain/snow thickness line is. It's not really near the center of the storm. That indicates there's more warmth with this storm. But too early for that
A middle solution would indeed be another potential snowstorm for the northeast but need to see how the temps look for it.
Canadian likes the Euro. Heavy rains for New England.
This is what the Euro shows. Strange track but a storm from the South starts heading into the Ohio Valley (This would typically bring warmth into the Northeast) but then it stalled and transfers to a new coastal storm that forms off North Carolina. That becomes the main storm and it tracks it right into New England.
Would be a snow to rain situation for most. Heavy rains too!
Interesting. Still, the track further to the west should mean more snow. Looks, snow for early Tuesday, then heavy rain, some snow showers, then possibly heavy snow on Thursday. Bulk of the snow will be on Thursday; WeatherUnderground has 8-12 inches for Adams, MA. I'm guessing they're going with the Euro & Canadian?
Interesting. Still, the track further to the west should mean more snow. Looks, snow for early Tuesday, then heavy rain, some snow showers, then possibly heavy snow on Thursday. Bulk of the snow will be on Thursday; WeatherUnderground has 8-12 inches for Adams, MA. I'm guessing they're going with the Euro & Canadian?
Now that I got some time I'll start to keep track of the next one. Good point about the West track but we don't want the LP over land or hugging the coast. It's like threading a needle. And even a good Benchmark track doesn't mean the temps will always support snow. This storm is coming "after" the arctic blast.
Current map. Just scattered snows in Kentucky and Northeast. The thing fell apart for Northern Mid Atlantic. Was supposed to be 3-6" meanwhile I don't know if they even got 2"?
A Clipper and a Coastal. Northern and Southern Jet Stream staying separate.. Close call to another big one! Only scattered light snow around and an Arctic front crossing though.
Tuesday-Wednesday. Feb 16-17 Storm Update:
GFS12z..
Something I noticed is that models aren't showing cold air being close to the center of the storm. To me indicating there's not a strong punch of cold air. But of course that's soon to be determined.
I like the GFS track here but notice not a lot of precip on the cold side of the coastal. Again, something that will get determined soon. Just a couple things I'm looking at.
I think GFS is west of previous runs. Now if Euro comes East that's a good snowstorm sign.
Canadian12z. Instead of showing a surface map.. How about the snow totals from it just to see the track of the storm. Getting interesting! Still looks moisture starved to me. Nothing big but lets keep the details off for few more days
Euro12z out in an hour or so.
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