From NWS Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow:
...SUMMARY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM THE GREAT BASIN...INTO THE BASE OF CNTRL U.S. TROUGH OVER
TX...THEN NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOCUSED
12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SHIFT FROM KS/OK INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC CYCLONE SHIFTS FROM NERN KS
INTO THE U.P. OF MI. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LARGE-SCALE
ADJUSTMENT...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LATE DAY1
INTO EARLY DAY2 CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND
MID-SOUTH REGION. THIS EARLY PERIOD TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN BROADER RECOVERY PORTIONS OF THE OH/ERN TN
VALLEY.
LATEST THINKING IS A PW SURGE WILL ADVANCE NWD ACROSS ERN TX/OK LATE
DAY1 AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD SHIFT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY BY MID DAY AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG WRN FRINGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM
ADVECTION TSTM ACTIVITY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
EVOLVE FROM CNTRL AR...NEWD INTO IL. IF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN RETURN INTO THIS CORRIDOR THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY ACROSS
AR/NRN LA THEN TRACK NEWD INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. VERY STRONG SHEAR
ALONG SRN FRINGES OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALL REGION APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR POTENTIAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS IL/IND THEN
A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE COULD EVOLVE WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STRONG
FORCING WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AS 90KT 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXPANDED SEVERE PROBS A BIT NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR STRONG FORCING.
..DARROW.. 12/22/2015
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