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Models continue to support my idea of a warm Eastern U.S.
Euro has widespread 70s and pockets of 80s coming. Why is this significant? Because normals have dropped to low 60s in spots so this would mean being above normal by over 10.
? Not believing it still but a few more times showing a Hurricane on the coast and my confidence grows.
To give some credit to the GFS, it was showing a Tropical System come from the Pacific and cross down south and come up the coast.. Now its showing a Hurricane in Atlantic blow up on the coast.
So to me that is a signal that something could happen along the coast.. It's picking up an enviroment favoring this.
This would be the Nov. 1st time frame. It actually stalls it too. (never a good thing)
Put it this way...Irene was a 973mb Low.
GFS12z
Mother of god... I've had enough scares when they said Isaac and Leslie were supposed to come here! Hopefully the forecast is wrong. It must be very rare for a hurricane to come up the east coast this late in the season right? Water temps are like 60 now. Never heard of a hurricane, heck even a tropical storm here in October or November.
The peak foliage is almost over... soon it'll be the boring part of fall. Other than the chance of seeing flurries here and there, all next month will be good for is waiting for winter to come.
It's been quite the odd fall here in Jersey. Currently half the trees have no leaves at all, and the other half are just peaking. A week ago, all the trees that now have colors had all green leaves! And the trees with no leaves lost them way back in mid September! Never seen so much variety.
Mother of god... I've had enough scares when they said Isaac and Leslie were supposed to come here! Hopefully the forecast is wrong. It must be very rare for a hurricane to come up the east coast this late in the season right? Water temps are like 60 now. Never heard of a hurricane, heck even a tropical storm here in October or November.
It is still possible for hurricanes to form in late fall and even winter. Just because hurricane season is coming to an end doesn't mean hurricanes never form outside of the hurricane season
It is still possible for hurricanes to form in late fall and even winter. Just because hurricane season is coming to an end doesn't mean hurricanes never form outside of the hurricane season
but they'd have trouble reaching higher latitudes due to cooler ocean temps
Met office predicting high of 6c on Friday. Which means 5c for me. They are mentioning snow in their forecast for sw Scotland. I think it's not mentioned for us because it's an easterly flow.
It's been quite the odd fall here in Jersey. Currently half the trees have no leaves at all, and the other half are just peaking. A week ago, all the trees that now have colors had all green leaves! And the trees with no leaves lost them way back in mid September! Never seen so much variety.
Yes, it's like that here too. I've forgotten if this is normal or not. I just consider this to be when we're almost past peak.
If 9-12" of snow in October happens, its concerning... If 48-60" of snow happens with 1 storm, its destruction. How ridiculas is this run by the Euro last night????
So the Euro takes the Hurricane from Carribean, rides up the Gulf Stream jst off the coast, becomes a 950mb Low, makes an East turn into NYC, stalls out over PA, Cold air filters into it. Snow totals on the right.
GFS 00z and 6z lose the storm.
#1. I have never heard of those amounts of snow happening historically with 1 storm in October.
#2. I have never seen this result with a model before
#3. I am still not buying the big storm senario
#4. If todays and tomorrows model runs continue to show it, I will.
but they'd have trouble reaching higher latitudes due to cooler ocean temps
Exactly.
SST are now below 70 F between Delaware Bay and Long Island, NY. That might sound warm if you’re in California/West Coast or New England...but for tropical systems that’s way too cold. You have to get to Cape Lookout (NC) to find those 80 F + (26 C) SST. So my guess is this low would be just a rain maker on the East Coast with some gusty winds, maybe some wet snow in the Mts of PA (above 2500 ft).
Here are SST - the Atlantic is getting cooler now north of VA Beach:
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Hopefully the forecast is wrong. It must be very rare for a hurricane to come up the east coast this late in the season right? Water temps are like 60 now. Never heard of a hurricane, heck even a tropical storm here in October or November.
