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This October will be the 7th colder than average month this year. Since 2008 about half of all months have been colder than average, but before 2007, only about 20% of months were since the 90's, so the UK climate has been cooling quite rapidly in the last six years, as proven by basic data.[/quote]
That's not true at all. For all the colder than average months there have been many above average months too, you can not cherry pick the colder than LTA months & conclude that the climate is getting colder... Unless you are basing your data on your own personal weather records, which again would make your UK claim untrue.
I am talking about the last six years compared to the period 1990-2006. Since 2008 to the present moment it has cooled down. In simple terms, there has been an increased proportion of cooler than average weather to warmer than average weather in this period, than the former. Not that there has been more colder than average whether than warmer than average whether. An increased proportion.
I was not implying anything else, other than the last four years, have seen a cool down. That has no bearing on whether it may continue; but it is nonetheless a factual observation and not untrue. In all my years of collecting weather records in multiple places in the country.
Also Met Office data shows that it has not been cooling for the last six years, infact the two warmest years ever recorded in the UK have happened in the last six years. The warmest was 2006, closely followed by 2011, which included the second warmest Autumn on record & the warmest ever October temperature.
What has been happening is a higher frequency of extreme weather events, such as the cold December in 2010, the drought in south eastern UK during 2011/early 2012 (though 2011 was the wettest year on record in Scotland) & the record rainfall in June 2012, as well as flooding which seems to be happening more & more all over the UK.
This ties in with what was always predicted with climate change, people seem to get mixed up with the term 'global warming', expecting it to simply get warmer everywhere & while the world is warming there will always still be extreme weather events which balance out, with heat waves in one place, while another is having record cold & droughts in one area while another has floods...
Also Met Office data shows that it has not been cooling for the last six years, infact the two warmest years ever recorded in the UK have happened in the last six years. The warmest was 2006, closely followed by 2011, which included the second warmest Autumn on record & the warmest ever October temperature.
What about second coldest December ever, coldest year since 1986, repeats of some of the coolest, wettest summers. it's easy to cherry pick specific examples. Anyway I said since 2007 so not including 2006. The last six years does not include 2006, it's 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by flamingGalah!
What has been happening is a higher frequency of extreme weather events, such as the cold December in 2010, the drought in south eastern UK during 2011/early 2012 (though 2011 was the wettest year on record in Scotland) & the record rainfall in June 2012, as well as flooding which seems to be happening more & more all over the UK.
Looking back at sites like Trevor Harley's Britweather and even events from well before the 20th century shows that actually extreme weather events were probably always a common feature of the weather but now it is much more frequently reported and easier to record the weather anyway say compared with the 1600's for example.
Quote:
Originally Posted by flamingGalah!
This ties in with what was always predicted with climate change, people seem to get mixed up with the term 'global warming', expecting it to simply get warmer everywhere & while the world is warming there will always still be extreme weather events which balance out, with heat waves in one place, while another is having record cold & droughts in one area while another has floods...
I sure can tell you I am not getting mixed up about this, I was not trying to disprove or even make any point about "global warming" at all I couldn't care less about it. I made a real basic observation that at least in my records the last four years have been seeing more cooler than average months, nothing more, nothing less. This could easy be taking place in a period of larger scale warming but I am not even interested in that debate and my comments were not implying that "global warming isn't happening because it's not happening here" and were not going in that direction at all.
My only thoughts on this is that climate has been changing all the time, since earth began, so I really don't know what people are trying to refer to by "climate change" other than that to me it is simply what always has happened and always will do. The climate of the earth has at times in history been massively different than what it is today and at some point in future will be again. People have only been recording weather on it for what is a drop in the ocean in the length of time it has existed.
Last edited by Weatherfan2; 10-23-2012 at 10:08 AM..
I mentioned the cold December in 2010, so I wasn't cherry picking at all, the fact remains that the Met Office statistics do not show a cooling trend, despite incidents like December 2010, and you did say in the last six years, as we are currently in 2012 I included 2006, but even without 2006 the second warmest year on record in the UK was 2011... We have had a run of cold winters in the UK, but we have always had these every 20 years or so, so that is nothing unusual. December 2010 was extreme, here in Portsmouth we had the heaviest snowfall since 1982, but it wasn't extremely cold, not as cold as 1991 or 1987 anyway.
Yes extreme weather will always have happened, but you must admit in the last 10-20 years there have been an increasing amount of extreme events in the UK. Flooding in particular seems to be happening almost on a monthly basis somewhere, things that used to happen once every 2-5 years are happening frequently now. We also have many months with either record highs or lows being achieved or record low/high rainfall totals...
The comment about global warming/climate change wasn't aimed at you, I was writing my post before your post appeared...
I think you probably read to deep into what I was referring to by "cooling down", I was comparing only the last 4-6 years with the period immediately before that, such as the late 90's and early 2000's when one has to admit there were loads of runs of much milder than average months. Since living here since 2003 I have noticed we've never had such numerous colder-than-avg months as what I've experienced since 2007-2008 until now, 2003-2006 and first half of 2007 were very very mild and it seemed barely possible to get a cooler than average month. Now it just seems to have been more frequent as a general observation. What this means for the next year or the next after that I do not know. So I'm not trying to say "the UK is cooling" but "the last four years" have had some cooler months compared with certainly 1995-2006.
GFS stands tall on its own going OTS and not phasing. Amazing.
so GFS still shows huge storm? Link?
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