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The fly in the ointment there is: how to get Russia to honor any agreement they might make.
That, too. People usually use the term " a lasting peace' in connection with the negotiation topic, in acknowledgement of that particular fly in the ointment.
After the referendum, Russia will declare Donetsk and Luhansk to be Russian territory. Any shell fired into those areas will have been fired into Russian territory.
Putin does, indeed, intend to repopulate those areas with Russians. He may even instantly turn soldiers into civilians so that civilians casualties appear to escalate.
But Putin doesn't have 20 years or anything like that. His country is on the ropes with manufacturing capability way down and more shut downs on the horizon. Automobile, aircraft, railroad - they are all coming to a full stop, and Russia cannot function without them.
Russia manufacturing production was down 1.1% in July over July 2021, but way above 2020. Not great news for Russia, but hardly the gloom and doom you are predicting. The rest of your post I agree 100% with. But by everything I see, the Russian economy is doing just fine, at least for now.
If we were to count up the puppets, I’d wager that Russia has a bit of catching up to do with the US/CIA
You guys need to read a couple of books, for crying out loud. The ignorance is palpable.
You might want to start with John Perkins, “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man”. Mr. Perkins describes in details never before revealed how nations and their governments are subverted, first with bribes, then by assassins, and then, if necessary, military action to eliminate the uncooperative, and replaced with those who will cooperate.
Some of the more notable examples of this took place in the 1950’s in Iran. A very popular Iranian President refused to relinquish Iran’s oil reserves to be plundered, so he had to go bye bye, and that he did. He was replaced by the Shaw of Iran, a brutal western puppet dictator who for years murdered any political opposition, who by all accounts was a psychopathic killer. There are dozens, if not hundreds more. Saddam Hussein was another CIA installed dictator, as was Gaddafi of Libya, Mubarak of Egypt, Noriega of Panama, and so many others, I don’t have the time to list.
But the book gives very specific, historically verifiable examples, that of course, don’t quite match the official narrative at all.
I was impressed w/Perkins at first. His vignettes sounded very believable. They seemed to line up with historical events. The puzzle pieces he presented seemed to fit. But now and then, people on the Left would shake their heads and make vague comments about his credibility, but never explain why they questioned it. After awhile, I looked into some of the details, and discovered that he was wrong on some important points
Not only that, but after publishing the book, he started an organization in the Bay Area taking tours to Latin America. What was the topic of his tours? Not economic inequality and the role international institutions play in that. Not tours to raise awareness of environmental degradation, or similar informative topics, like you might expect from such an author. He's been running shamanism tours. He's going for a New Age woo-woo, magic-and-drugs audience. So much for taking him seriously.
And in case anyone's interested in scoping him out, I just now saw, that he put out a new book out in 2016, a sequel to his first, called "The New Confessions of an Economic Hit Man". It's a revised version of the 1st book, with "15 explosive new chapters" added, according to Amazon. But in the meantime, he's doing lecture tours not about his supposed work as a development expert ostensibly for the US Gov't & World Bank; not about those "15 explosive new chapters", but about shamanism, and what Native elders in the Amazon rainforests have told him about how to save the world.
Sorry to burst your bubble about Perkins, TxGuy; I know how everything in his book/s seems to fit. But ultimately, it just doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
Which is not to say that the US and World Bank haven't made messes. They have. Perkins just isn't the right messenger to listen to on that.
Last edited by Ruth4Truth; 09-23-2022 at 02:56 PM..
Yup, it figures your analysis of Russia goes as deep as watching a video of nightlife in Moscow. Please tell us again how we are all so misinformed.
I don’t need to, you tell everyone how misinformed you are, every time your lips move, or your fingers touch the keyboard.
Furthermore, the video isn’t an analysis of Russia, it is a presentation of how people are just people, including Russian people. They are just like us, although probably not quite as ignorant.
Russian Ruble at around 57-1 now verses 77-1 when war began. In addition, 1 year ago oil was $74 a barrel so a recent decline to $77 doesn't seem too significant. Meanwhile our own economy according to numbers is relatively stagnant at best.
One year ago, when oil cost $74 a barrel gas prices were significantly less at the pump than they are now. I think even if oil drops to $50 a barrel our gas prices will remain relatively high.
Surely you don't think the value of the Ruble means anything, or do you? It can't be traded and can't be used outside of Russia, so...
$77 would be fine if Russia could actually get $77. But it can't. Chinese and Indians buy at 30% discount AND production is going down. You have to ask yourself how much it costs Russia to get it out of the ground. Most analysts think they break even at $50.
I'm optimistic. The financial squeeze is on and Russia is feeling the pinch. Inflation, unemployment, deaths.
Don’t inject that senile criminal’s name in this conversation. Biden can’t even attend to his own toilet duties.
Need I remind you that Putin is on record offering a proposal that would have prevented the war before it even began. He offered Ukraine a guarantee that Russia would respect their territorial sovereignty, and assure no military action against them in exchange for their promise to abandon their efforts to join NATO. Ukraine rejected the proposal.
That offer alone destroys the narrative that Putin’s desire was to invade and take Ukraine entirely. I don’t condone the war at all, but let’s be honest about it. Putin was goaded into this mistake, due to the provocative actions of NATO, and it’s expansion, which Putin deemed an existential threat to Russia’s security..
But NATO has never been open to considering an application from Ukraine (and Georgia). That's been P's mistake all along. He's been talking to the wrong people. He should have gone directly to NATO's leadership to ask the same question he asked 3 obtuse American Presidents: "are you in favor of Ukraine joining NATO". He would have learned that NATO had rejected the idea back in 2014, and hasn't changed its stance since. IOW, Ukraine's opinion was irrelevant. NATO wasn't going to have them, that's all that counts. Or should have counted, if P had bothered to do more thorough research.
I still think one of the main reasons for invading was access to Ukraine's subsurface resources on favorable terms. The original plan was to install a puppet regime to achieve favorable deals and other agreements. When that failed, they decided to just take what they needed and flatten Ukraine in the process. So they took the south of the country all the way to Crimea, which hadn't been part of the original plan. They wouldn't have needed to do that, if they'd succeeded in installing a puppet regime.
In any case, the country now is in chaos, with people streaming out on anything that moves. Heaven knows how all those people will survive in whichever countries they end up. More depopulation and brain drain for Russia.
After the referendum, Russia will declare Donetsk and Luhansk to be Russian territory. Any shell fired into those areas will have been fired into Russian territory.
Putin does, indeed, intend to repopulate those areas with Russians. He may even instantly turn soldiers into civilians so that civilians casualties appear to escalate.
But Putin doesn't have 20 years or anything like that. His country is on the ropes with manufacturing capability way down and more shut downs on the horizon. Automobile, aircraft, railroad - they are all coming to a full stop, and Russia cannot function without them.
Sounds more like your liberal utopia here in America. Last time I checked the facts, it looks like the sanctions placed on Russia have caused more harm to the sanctioners, than the sanctioned.
As for the Donbas regions, they welcome the Russians, and have been pleading with Russia for years to stop the Ukrainian military attacking them.
Crimea was a similar case, and the referendums there overwhelmingly chose to align with Russia.
Ukraine is and has been a hellhole of corruption. Not long ago, it was considered by western analysts as the most corrupt nation on earth. But is that so surprising when they have an organized Nazi militia as a branch of their military?
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