Prediction: City of Pittsburgh to lose much more population in the next 5 years. (Washington: rental, to buy)

[wood_lake]

I'm rooting for Pittsburgh, but realistically no one knows what will happen. Will remote work completely transform migration in the United States? Quite possibly. Will the pandemic entice people to move to less densely populated areas? Very possible. Will people continue to flock to cities with booming job markets seeking stability? Also possible.



If things like this do happen there is little incentive for anyone to choose the Rust Belt outside of having family there.

[Joe_P]

The baseless claims are amusing. Despite the constant documenting of millennials moving into city centers, some think that there will be a great migration to the farms. Again, people inclined to make a change, will do so. Perhaps, some will rethink city life, but for most people outside of only the biggest metros, are complacent and enjoy a decent quality of life - certainly metros of 2ish million and less enjoy a decent quality of life.

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by wood_lake

I'm rooting for Pittsburgh, but realistically no one knows what will happen. Will remote work completely transform migration in the United States? Quite possibly. Will the pandemic entice people to move to less densely populated areas? Very possible. Will people continue to flock to cities with booming job markets seeking stability? Also possible.


If things like this do happen there is little incentive for anyone to choose the Rust Belt outside of having family there.

i am excited about these apparently eventual changes in our ways of living. without typing a thesis, i am looking foward to, hopefully - less air pollution due to less commuting

-more compact living where people can work from home, be around the home more often, care for their property, and rediscover a neighborly attitude more than what they may have ever experienced.

-very cheap gas, which is historically tied to a strong economy

-hopeful fruition of the hyperloop, which makes city to city travel so ridiculously convenient that living IN a city to be near a terminal would make sense...

etc....

this is not a utopia, of course, for various reasons that would be a lengthy discussion.

[WhoIsStanwix?]

Despite being in the business of making predictions, I won't make one here. I will, however, share anecdotes that seem to make sense to me shared by some of my friends in NYC and Chicago - they are thinking moving to a city like Pittsburgh, with its more accessible real estate and decent (but not incredible, by any means) amenities, is now much more feasible and desirable, given the rapid shift to remote work.

This sort of shift was already happening among those who have distributed teams, but coming out of this pandemic and on the other side, you could see that accelerate. To people in NYC, Chicago, and other much larger cities, Pittsburgh actually is like a suburb / exurb. I am not saying you will not also see accelerated movement to other smaller cities or places with better weather, but writing off Pittsburgh as completely undesirable is kind of nonsensical. Time will tell, though.

[PreservationPioneer]

I live in a small town that is more walkable than many neighborhoods within the city. You can live in the country and still enjoy historic architecture and a walkable town core.

[fat lou]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

The baseless claims are amusing. Despite the constant documenting of millennials moving into city centers,

Okay. So some childless people in their twenties and thirties want to live in a city for a little while before they move to the suburbs. So what? How many Pittsburgh neighborhoods will they take up?

The days of middle-class people raising children in the city are going, going, gone. Pittsburgh police officers don't have to live in the city anymore. Pittsburgh firefighters still do, so I guess they'll be some of the last people within the city limits who aren't either: a. childless people in their twenties and early thirties, or b. wealthy people in Squirrel Hill/Shadyside/Point Breeze, or c. the poorest of the poor. And many of the poor have been heading east of the city for some time now.

So the question is: how many neighborhoods will continue to be peopled by groups other than the poor? My guess is: not that many. The East End university area will remain as-is. There will always be party neighborhoods for the young, which will remain the South Side Flats and, maybe, Lawrenceville. Mt. Washington probably won't change much. Well-heeled people who like pretty architecture will likely continue to live in the Lower North Side and Highland Park. And.....that's probably about it.

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by fat lou

Okay. So some childless people in their twenties and thirties want to live in a city for a little while before they move to the suburbs. So what? How many Pittsburgh neighborhoods will they take up?

The days of middle-class people raising children in the city are going, going, gone. Pittsburgh police officers don't have to live in the city anymore. Pittsburgh firefighters still do, so I guess they'll be some of the last people within the city limits who aren't either: a. childless people in their twenties and early thirties, or b. wealthy people in Squirrel Hill/Shadyside/Point Breeze, or c. the poorest of the poor. And many of the poor have been heading east of the city for some time now.

So the question is: how many neighborhoods will continue to be peopled by groups other than the poor? My guess is: not that many. The East End university area will remain as-is. There will always be party neighborhoods for the young, which will remain the South Side Flats and, maybe, Lawrenceville. Mt. Washington probably won't change much. Well-heeled people who like pretty architecture will likely continue to live in the Lower North Side and Highland Park. And.....that's probably about it.

but you are talking about what is based on what we know NOW. the younger neighborhoods - 'hipster' if you will - will become older. those thousands can become the next wave of middle class families that inhabited these neighborhoods from the 50s to the 90s. they might have put down roots and will grow old to be landlords and the 'nice old couple next door'.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by wood_lake

I'm rooting for Pittsburgh, but realistically no one knows what will happen. Will remote work completely transform migration in the United States? Quite possibly. Will the pandemic entice people to move to less densely populated areas? Very possible. Will people continue to flock to cities with booming job markets seeking stability? Also possible.



If things like this do happen there is little incentive for anyone to choose the Rust Belt outside of having family there.

A strong economy will only attract people to cities. Working remotely will transform choices on where to live. And it depends where in the rust belt. I like Cleveland’s suburbs much better than ours, eastern part right outside the city. I will say the same with Detroit suburbs as well, especially Oakland County.

Originally Posted by Joe_P

The baseless claims are amusing. Despite the constant documenting of millennials moving into city centers, some think that there will be a great migration to the farms. Again, people inclined to make a change, will do so. Perhaps, some will rethink city life, but for most people outside of only the biggest metros, are complacent and enjoy a decent quality of life - certainly metros of 2ish million and less enjoy a decent quality of life.

What baseless claims? Millennials are moving to the suburbs now. You are a few years behind.

https://www.yourvalley.net/stories/r...s-afoot,170386

Originally Posted by PreservationPioneer

I live in a small town that is more walkable than many neighborhoods within the city. You can live in the country and still enjoy historic architecture and a walkable town core.

Indeed. I think the Counties that surround Allegheny have small urban gems more walkable than Pittsburgh itself. Have you ever been to vandergrift?

Originally Posted by fat lou

Okay. So some childless people in their twenties and thirties want to live in a city for a little while before they move to the suburbs. So what? How many Pittsburgh neighborhoods will they take up?

The days of middle-class people raising children in the city are going, going, gone. Pittsburgh police officers don't have to live in the city anymore. Pittsburgh firefighters still do, so I guess they'll be some of the last people within the city limits who aren't either: a. childless people in their twenties and early thirties, or b. wealthy people in Squirrel Hill/Shadyside/Point Breeze, or c. the poorest of the poor. And many of the poor have been heading east of the city for some time now.

So the question is: how many neighborhoods will continue to be peopled by groups other than the poor? My guess is: not that many. The East End university area will remain as-is. There will always be party neighborhoods for the young, which will remain the South Side Flats and, maybe, Lawrenceville. Mt. Washington probably won't change much. Well-heeled people who like pretty architecture will likely continue to live in the Lower North Side and Highland Park. And.....that's probably about it.

Indeed. Joe is a little behind the times. Many articles from late 2019 to present day point to millennials choosing the suburbs for the exact same reason you stated.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by fat lou

The days of middle-class people raising children in the city are going, going, gone. Pittsburgh police officers don't have to live in the city anymore. Pittsburgh firefighters still do, so I guess they'll be some of the last people within the city limits who aren't either: a. childless people in their twenties and early thirties, or b. wealthy people in Squirrel Hill/Shadyside/Point Breeze, or c. the poorest of the poor. And many of the poor have been heading east of the city for some time now.

So the question is: how many neighborhoods will continue to be peopled by groups other than the poor? My guess is: not that many. The East End university area will remain as-is. There will always be party neighborhoods for the young, which will remain the South Side Flats and, maybe, Lawrenceville. Mt. Washington probably won't change much. Well-heeled people who like pretty architecture will likely continue to live in the Lower North Side and Highland Park. And.....that's probably about it.

You seem to have a pretty narrow definition of what "middle-class" is.

I'm a married guy with two kids who lives in the city. I'm a researcher for a labor union, my wife is an architect. It's only within the last few years our combined taxable income exceeded $100,000. Both our kids go to public school.

My daughter has lots of friends who live in the city. Their parents are professors, medical researchers, architects, engineers, etc. Most of them do not live in Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, or Point Breeze. My wife has a ton of coworkers who are raising kids too, and many of them are in the city.

I live in Morningside, which is absolutely crawling with kids. As time goes on, it's less lower-middle class, and more "professional class" type people (like a poor man's Highland Park) but there's still more kids here than you can shake a stick at.

What I think is happening is the "native white" population - people born and bred in Pittsburgh with local working-class roots - are continually being displaced to the suburbs, and they are getting replaced by people who moved to Pittsburgh from somewhere else. My daughter has told me among all of her friends she's the only one who has a parent (my wife) who is actually from Pittsburgh.

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by eschaton

My daughter has lots of friends who live in the city. Their parents are professors, medical researchers, architects, engineers, etc. Most of them do not live in Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, or Point Breeze. My wife has a ton of coworkers who are raising kids too, and many of them are in the city.

where ARE these people? i know none, and feel out of place all the time.