Prediction: City of Pittsburgh to lose much more population in the next 5 years. (Butler: renter, unemployment)

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

I'm not sure what you mean by "doesn't hold water." Natural decline is a big problem. Pittsburgh has to overcome it and that means, yes even more jobs so that the in migration is even higher so that the net population change is positive.

Domestically, the Boston metro lost 23,000 people last year, but as an international gateway city, it gain nearly that same amount and also gained significantly from natural change - more births than deaths. There are a lot of "Bostons" too.

The point being, Pittsburgh can't depend on births to grow and its international migration isn't nearly as significant as a Boston etc.

That's not a sugar coated response. That's Pittsburgh's reality.

Lol. “Doesn’t hold water” means it’s not true. It’s an excuse that continually gets used as though Pittsburgh is the only city natural decline happens.

Right, more jobs and desirability. 2 obvious things that obviously aren’t being done or more people would be moving there.

Great for Boston, but we’re talking about Pittsburgh.

Reality is, if it’s desirable and quality jobs are prevalent, people will come. Until that happens it will remain stagnant and/or in decline in population.

[KoNgFooCj]

Pittsburgh is about to have the best skyline in America of any city with less than 300,000 people.

[Joe_P]

Here you are again.

I'm sure your feelings "aren't hurt" when you report someone.

I never said you claimed it was the only problem.

You minutes ago...

You said the problem is natural decline.

I'm familiar with the topic because I have read Census and population stats for many years. There used to be a few expert bloggers who regularly discussed it. Chris Briem, a Pitt professor was one, though I don' t think that he has blogged for some time. You have the tools to look for whatever information you find. I'm not a library nor am your Google or LexisNexis.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

Some counties do draw more people from outside then people who leave.

Washington county consistently has net positive migration, but the overall population has been stagnant.

Why? Because the region has a unique oddity in having natural decline, more deaths than births.

That doesn't negate the need for the region to draw more people in. In fact, it highlights the need to do so, but this isn't a simple issue.

Why doesn’t the region attract enough people from the outside to offset deaths vs births? Each city has many people that die. So in essence What you are saying Pittsburgh is a dying city.

What would attract more people to come in live here?

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

Pittsburgh is about to have the best skyline in America of any city with less than 300,000 people.

Indeed. Hopefully the city stays above 250,000 or there will be no second class cities in Pennsylvania.

[Joe_P]

Why doesn’t the region attract enough people from the outside to offset deaths vs births?

I noted that it needs to do that.

Each city has many people that die

.

Yes, but people dying is not the same thing as natural decline.

So in essence What you are saying Pittsburgh is a dying city.

I noted the dynamics in the components of population change. This isn't new.

Is this new to you?

Indeed. Hopefully the city stays above 250,000 or there will be no second class cities in Pennsylvania.

Does that bother you?

[_Buster]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

Pittsburgh is about to have the best skyline in America of any city with less than 300,000 people.

It already has the best skyline of any city less than 500,000, easily. but 'city' populations are meaningless, its the metro populations that are relevant.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

I noted that it needs to do that.



.

Yes, but people dying is not the same thing as natural decline.



I noted the dynamics in the components of population change. This isn't new.

Is this new to you?



Does that bother you?

Again, why is the city unable to grow its population to this point? You danced around the question. We make bests lists and you as well as other posters tout its greatness. Why aren’t people beating down Pittsburgh’s door?

Natural decline to me means that a place is dying. My health is going to naturally decline before I die.

It isn’t new to to anybody and especially Pittsburgh. Im pretty sure pittsburgh doesn’t grow because of a lackluster, stagnant and cheap economy. Economic prospects in the region are greatly overstated by how great the job market is and the opportunity for growth. That’s the key. One big potential job growth sector that isn’t welcomed is the gas drilling. Meanwhile that is the main reason for the population stability in early 2010s, which is not surprisingly due to job growth. Many other bests lists may be true, but if jobs here pay less than other cheap cities, opportunities are few and far between then of course you are going to naturally decline. Nobody is going to come here or stay for a dead end job with lower than averages salaries. Salaries here are much less than other cities. It’s no big secret. All you have to do is look up that data on the bureau of labor statistics. But like other boosters you can’t admit the problem. And it’s a major one as to why this place continues to naturally decline. It’s probably the same reason you are in Atlanta. More opportunities. Pittsburgh can’t keep up with other cities that pay, have more growth opportunities and diverse economies.

And no it doesn’t bother me. We have accepted mediocrity and natural decline in this city.

Originally Posted by _Buster

It already has the best skyline of any city less than 500,000, easily. but 'city' populations are meaningless, its the metro populations that are relevant.

Lol they aren’t meaningless. Cities over 500,000 got virus stimulus money. Pittsburgh got zero dollars, while Columbus and Indianapolis got millions. They have smaller metros than Pittsburgh.

Folks like to include the entire metro when it needs to win a population argument. When it comes to being progressive and hip only people argue for the city and those areas outside of the city that house 2 million of the 2.3 million residents don’t matter because they are old and vote republican.

[rickms]

It already has the best skyline of any city less than 500,000, easily. but 'city' populations are meaningless, its the metro populations that are relevant.

It depends if the subject is about a city specifically or the metro. City population can be meaningless.


Yes, Oklahoma City is bigger than Miami - actually so is Jacksonville, but the metros are maybe a third of the size.


It does matter that older cities are shrinking. Pittsburgh's city (and metro) population has been declining for many decades.


It simply hasn't generated enough to jobs to attract people like long ago. For the smaller industrial (or former industrial) towns along the rivers - the Mon valley and Beaver County etc., there is no easy solution. Either Pittsburgh has to generate enough jobs for commuters to live in these places or these smaller places have to find new jobs and how likely is that?


The issue with higher deaths than births is an added layer that hurts Pittsburgh. I haven't seen the numbers in a long time, but all of this feeds on itself. People die and the needs for services go with it. Less tax revenue etc etc. But Pittsburgh isn't attracting huge inbound replacements and has less births than deaths. I don't see a magic bullet that will spur jobs in a way to help all of these communities.


I would be curious to see the changes to the deaths and births - if it has changed at all.

[Joe_P]

I would be curious to see the changes to the deaths and births - if it has changed at al

Universities and some financial institutions provide data the most. Texas A&M is one of the better resources.

You can look by county or metro and it lists the components changes for each year for like the last 50 years.

A search for Texas A&M population data should take you to it, unless something has changed.