COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (Penn: medical, nursing home)

[zip95]

Originally Posted by Catia

We are not only talking about losing lives. If you let the virus rip-we are talking about losing a KNOWLEDGE BASE that cannot be replaced to what it is now.
Letting the virus rip amounts to a lot more death than just the virus infects.
It is the butterfly effect of letting it rip, it affects everything downstream.

Sweden has decided to "let it rip", vs their Nordic neighbors who have not.

Let's see if Sweden looks like Libya in 6 months.

Also, just to remind you, I never advocated letting-it-rip. I advocate a data driven approach, based in reality, not media driven hysteria, that balances economics along with public health.

Probably something like: in the next few weeks we need to quarantine our most vulnerable, maintain social distancing suggestions (work from home if possible, wear masks, etc), keep schools and sports closed, but otherwise open business and employment back up.

[gg]

Originally Posted by zip95

Sweden has decided to "let it rip", vs their Nordic neighbors who have not.

Let's see if Sweden looks like Libya in 6 months.

Also, just to remind you, I never advocated letting-it-rip. I advocate a data driven approach, based in reality, not media driven hysteria, that balances economics along with public health.

Probably something like: in the next few weeks we need to quarantine our most vulnerable, maintain social distancing suggestions (work from home if possible, wear masks, etc), keep schools and sports closed, but otherwise open business and employment back up.

I predict Sweden will spike faster and decline faster and move on with life faster. Not saying it is good or bad, but I have to respect them doing their own thing. Looks like we will learn something from how they are handling things because we can directly compare them to their neighbors.

There are some university studies that say the US might peak within the next two weeks. If so, I feel the total death toll will be wildly over exaggerated by our media. I searched coronavirus per capita for a world view and it is amazing how hard it is to find something current. Per capita is the only way to look at real statistics, but the media loves just saying how many cases there are, that makes the US look like a runaway freight train. Guess they want us to go nuts? Last I checked Germany and Switzerland had higher per capita numbers than the US, yet some feel these countries handle things better than the US. Guess we shall see.

Good post.

[Kippy]

Per Capita numbers according to Johns Hopkins University:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ianbremme...34595454562307

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by gg

I predict Sweden will spike faster and decline faster and move on with life faster. Not saying it is good or bad, but I have to respect them doing their own thing. Looks like we will learn something from how they are handling things because we can directly compare them to their neighbors.

There are some university studies that say the US might peak within the next two weeks. If so, I feel the total death toll will be wildly over exaggerated by our media. I searched coronavirus per capita for a world view and it is amazing how hard it is to find something current. Per capita is the only way to look at real statistics, but the media loves just saying how many cases there are, that makes the US look like a runaway freight train. Guess they want us to go nuts? Last I checked Germany and Switzerland had higher per capita numbers than the US, yet some feel these countries handle things better than the US. Guess we shall see.

Good post.

what can we learn from Sweden?

no, there is no conspiracy here -they dont "want us to go nuts". 20 years ago someone actually told me they believed marijuana was kept illegal so we'd work harder. these days, i am counting the days when people start saying its been decriminalized so that people will remain docile and not a threat to government power.

"some feel these countries handle things better than the US"....who does? i know too little about how they handle things to make a judgement. No one can, either, except with preconceived notions and judgements.

[szug-bot]

Today's dutiful report:

April 7...cases reported from last 12 days, starting with most distant:


45, 25, 61, 46, 25, 35, 31, 63, 57, 76, 53, 37, 47

[eschaton]

We seem to be doing okay. Beaver County on the other hand...

[gg]

Originally Posted by Kippy

Per Capita numbers according to Johns Hopkins University:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ianbremme...34595454562307

Thanks. That is part of the puzzle. Then there is per capita testing. The US seems to be doing much better in that category as well.

The entire puzzle is of course impossible because the huge amount of people that will never know they have or had it, but at some point we could get some sort of crude estimation, unless we can get enough people on board to get the antibody test showing how many of us actually had it.

I have to say this virus is so difficult because how many people can unknowingly carry it around. We can't stay indoors forever. Is Sweden doing it right? Impossible to know.

[gg]

Sweden might already be in a place

https://www.thelocal.se/20200310/tim...oped-in-sweden

A very tiny controlled sample, but it goes to show you that many people can have this virus and not know it.

The department for thoracic surgery at Linköping University Hospital in Sweden tested all of its staff, around 50, for the coronavirus and found that around five to ten tested positive without obvious symptoms or with only very mild symptoms, such as a light headache or a slightly blocked nose.

I find Sweden interesting to watch as they sure are taking a different approach. We could never take that approach in the US of course.

[chao]

Originally Posted by szug-bot

Today's dutiful report:

April 7...cases reported from last 12 days, starting with most distant:


45, 25, 61, 46, 25, 35, 31, 63, 57, 76, 53, 37, 47

Pittsburgh wise, we have 210 since April 4th and hasn't got any increase until April 6th Monday...not sure about yesterday and today, but still showing 210 in April 6th. that is somewhat inspiring

Allegheny less than 800 positive, and 6 death, doing pretty good job.


thank you for everyday update

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by chao

Pittsburgh wise, we have 210 since April 4th and hasn't got any increase until April 6th Monday...not sure about yesterday and today, but still showing 210 in April 6th. that is somewhat inspiring

Allegheny less than 800 positive, and 6 death, doing pretty good job.


thank you for everyday update

you're welcome...but really, ANY diversion, even a few moments, where i can do something other than work-related stuff on this bloody computer is a pleasure.