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Old 04-05-2020, 10:39 AM
 
1,056 posts, read 2,624,179 times
Reputation: 638

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This debate seems like the blind men and the elephant parable. I think that most of you are probably correct.

Here are some facts

This is serious, and without social-distancing this would likely be

the leading cause of death in the US,

About half of people who would test positive, have no symptoms at all

The actual death rate is probably worse than flu, but still pretty low.

The media is for sure overreacting. News is a business dependent on eyeballs, and generating fear is a sure-fire way to increase viewership.

On a cruise ship (where people have very close contact) only 20% of people became infected.

Allegheny county is doing very well and the increase in cases to 76 is due to an increase in testing
The recent jump in cases reflects a significant increase in testing, officials said.
Being in the Pittsburgh metro is probably one of the best places to weather this storm. We have world-class healthcare, a country with limitless resources, and we got a jump on things before the virus really took hold (unlike New York).

If we can hold on a bit longer, we will get through this. It's our economy that won't recover quickly. How many shops/resturants downtown do you think are gone for good???
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Old 04-05-2020, 12:51 PM
 
6,360 posts, read 5,103,530 times
Reputation: 3309
Quote:
Originally Posted by zip95 View Post
This debate seems like the blind men and the elephant parable. I think that most of you are probably correct.

.

The media is for sure overreacting. News is a business dependent on eyeballs, and generating fear is a sure-fire way to increase viewership.
...


If we can hold on a bit longer, we will get through this. It's our economy that won't recover quickly. How many shops/resturants downtown do you think are gone for good???

I disagree about the economy, actually. When this ends, i think we will see a quarterly EXPLOSION in economic activity, and surprisingly, inflation into 2021. People will be ready to spend and get back to the lifestyles we took for granted!

Sorry, i still disagree with the "media is overreacting" thing. In my city-data history, i generally have not been an ally to the television news media, of any source. I have often criticized local news.
But i do not think they are "over-reacting".

They are reporting, ad nauseum, but its no different than what they always do - oh, a fire? Show the flames, show a distraught building owner....but they do no follow-up, nothing to educate anyone on what caused teh fire, etc. Same for terrible car crashes - and for that, that frustrates me to no end. (But they will surely show the crumpled vehicle and the damage done- without determining and later reporting on cause/culpability.) Yes, they need to make it entertaining. But these TV news people (and online sources) are just journalists. They AREN'T Fauci, doctors, first responders, etc. Are THOSE people 'over-reacting'?

I can see an argument that the stay at home orders/penalizing businesses for staying open, etc. might be an over-reaction. Why not talk about THAT? The media is just relaying information. They are not making the actual decisions that alter what we do.

Not picking on you, zip - but i just am not on board with criticism of the media. For God's sake - this is a pandemic crossing the globe. There is really no precedent for this.
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Old 04-05-2020, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
6,327 posts, read 9,210,721 times
Reputation: 4056
Quote:
Originally Posted by szug-bot View Post
.

Not picking on you, zip - but i just am not on board with criticism of the media. For God's sake - this is a pandemic crossing the globe. There is really no precedent for this.
I agree, I mean I don't think entire counties around the world would shut down everything non-essential if they data didn't show this would be really bad if that didn't happen.
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Old 04-05-2020, 01:38 PM
 
1,056 posts, read 2,624,179 times
Reputation: 638
Quote:
Originally Posted by szug-bot View Post
I disagree about the economy, actually. When this ends, i think we will see a quarterly EXPLOSION in economic activity, and surprisingly, inflation into 2021. People will be ready to spend and get back to the lifestyles we took for granted!
So on May 1st, you are planning to board a plane to Kennywood and renewing your Steelers season tickets. Then afterward, standing in line at the super crowed Waterfront Costco, maybe take in a movie. Then to top off the evening, sign up for a 30-year mortgage and 5-year car loan?

If so, then you're probably in the minority.

In all likelihood, Covid is here to stay and social distancing measures will stay in effect for months. People will be allowed to return to work in a few weeks because anything longer than that is nation-destroying economic suicide. But the virus will persist at (hopefully) manageable levels and people will remain scared and uncertain... about their health and their finances.

There will be no V recovery.

Quote:
Originally Posted by szug-bot View Post
, i still disagree with the "media is overreacting" thing. In my city-data history, i generally have not been an ally to the television news media, of any source. I have often criticized local news.
But i do not think they are "over-reacting".

They are reporting, ad nauseum, but its no different than what they always do - oh, a fire? Show the flames, show a distraught building owner....but they do no follow-up, nothing to educate anyone on what caused teh fire, etc. Same for terrible car crashes - and for that, that frustrates me to no end. (But they will surely show the crumpled vehicle and the damage done- without determining and later reporting on cause/culpability.) Yes, they need to make it entertaining. But these TV news people (and online sources) are just journalists. They AREN'T Fauci, doctors, first responders, etc. Are THOSE people 'over-reacting'?

I can see an argument that the stay at home orders/penalizing businesses for staying open, etc. might be an over-reaction. Why not talk about THAT? The media is just relaying information. They are not making the actual decisions that alter what we do.

Not picking on you, zip - but i just am not on board with criticism of the media. For God's sake - this is a pandemic crossing the globe. There is really no precedent for this.
The media's problem is that they report for sensationalism and views, not for accuracy and context. Covid, crime, fires, politics, etc... it's all the same thing, over the top entertainment designed for ratings.

Media: Largest ever increase in Covid cases!!!
Reality: A huge increase in testing allows officials to find and quarantine many more infected individuals who otherwise would be infecting others.

Media: Over one million infected across the globe!!!
Reality: The number of people infected is pretty small relative to other diseases.

Media: Look at the body bags and caskets!!!
Reality: Every day hospitals have body bags and caskets. Today there was a slight increase.

And regarding Fauci, doctors, etc. I wouldn't use the word overreacting. Instead, I would say their goal is total eradication of the virus with zero human deaths. That's their optimal outcome and they will advocate for policies that get us as close as we can to that goal. I understand that that's their job, but I also understand that they are not experts in things like economics and social stability, and their models most certainly don't factor in the terrible side-effects that come with a 29% reduction in economic output.
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Old 04-05-2020, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Downtown Cranberry Twp.
40,998 posts, read 18,415,714 times
Reputation: 8529
CNN recently posted coverage from Italy and claimed it was from the US. When called out on it they claimed “it was a mistake”.

Yes, this is a very serious issue, however, the media is an absolute clown show and has been fear mongering at an extreme level.

I do, however, love the coverage of people trying to return their hoarded items, and even moreso when stores won’t take it back.
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Old 04-05-2020, 01:53 PM
 
1,952 posts, read 1,152,132 times
Reputation: 736
Quote:
Originally Posted by zip95 View Post
Instead, I would say their goal is total eradication of the virus with zero human deaths.

I don't disagree with any of your post, I think this is a key point and media runs with it. I heard Fauci say early on that he only had one priority to focus on and it was the disease and its effects but government (I don't care who is in office this holds true) has so many more things to factor in. What if right now we return back to normal but have to give up 50k lives, what about 200k, what about 500k? What is the acceptable number? To Fauci his is zero but he is a Dr, our leaders have to make those hard decisions just like going to war. If you feel there is no acceptable number than you are living in a dream world. 61,0000 people died in the US a few years ago from the flu and most people probably don't even know. I am just glad I do not have to make that decision because there is no decision that will not be torn apart by 1/2 the country.
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Old 04-05-2020, 03:16 PM
 
1,056 posts, read 2,624,179 times
Reputation: 638
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knepper3 View Post
I don't disagree with any of your post, I think this is a key point and media runs with it. I heard Fauci say early on that he only had one priority to focus on and it was the disease and its effects but government (I don't care who is in office this holds true) has so many more things to factor in. What if right now we return back to normal but have to give up 50k lives, what about 200k, what about 500k? What is the acceptable number? To Fauci his is zero but he is a Dr, our leaders have to make those hard decisions just like going to war. If you feel there is no acceptable number than you are living in a dream world. 61,0000 people died in the US a few years ago from the flu and most people probably don't even know. I am just glad I do not have to make that decision because there is no decision that will not be torn apart by 1/2 the countr cy.
Exactly! Covid is never going away like the flu is never going away. We're going to have to learn to minimize its effects and carry on.

I think people forget that for the last 5,000 years human existence was brutal, short, and violent. People think grocery stores are alway magically fully stocked, neighborhoods are magically safe, and your company will always magically have money to pay you. The truth is that our way of life is the exception, not the rule, and even today most of the world continues to live like our ancestors. If we break this economy the consequences could be devastating. Fauci isn't considering this (and he shouldn't), but Trump must.

I don't envy him either.
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Old 04-05-2020, 07:11 PM
 
Location: In Transition
3,829 posts, read 1,710,896 times
Reputation: 1455
Quote:
Originally Posted by zip95 View Post
Exactly! Covid is never going away like the flu is never going away. We're going to have to learn to minimize its effects and carry on.

I think people forget that for the last 5,000 years human existence was brutal, short, and violent. People think grocery stores are alway magically fully stocked, neighborhoods are magically safe, and your company will always magically have money to pay you. The truth is that our way of life is the exception, not the rule, and even today most of the world continues to live like our ancestors. If we break this economy the consequences could be devastating. Fauci isn't considering this (and he shouldn't), but Trump must.

I don't envy him either.
I can’t disagree with this too much. Maybe it is better to let the virus run it’s course and thin the herd. Outbreaks and sickness can be mother nature’s way of cleansing the earth. There is a threat of sickness and a threat of cancer no matter who you are. I just don’t know what else can be done. You aren’t going to save everyone.

I mean how great is the health of our society going to be if we stay shutdown? If there is nothing left and people are in a world of hurt mentally and physically are we really better off? I see a future of more crime, sickness and death if we let this go on.

Is it better to lose 47 million jobs and put probably 90 million lives and health at risk. Or do we let the virus go and kill a million or more people?
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Old 04-06-2020, 06:55 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
387 posts, read 476,025 times
Reputation: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independentthinking83 View Post
I can’t disagree with this too much. Maybe it is better to let the virus run it’s course and thin the herd. Outbreaks and sickness can be mother nature’s way of cleansing the earth. There is a threat of sickness and a threat of cancer no matter who you are. I just don’t know what else can be done. You aren’t going to save everyone.

I mean how great is the health of our society going to be if we stay shutdown? If there is nothing left and people are in a world of hurt mentally and physically are we really better off? I see a future of more crime, sickness and death if we let this go on.

Is it better to lose 47 million jobs and put probably 90 million lives and health at risk. Or do we let the virus go and kill a million or more people?


The issue of "just letting it go" is NOT just that simple or cut & dry, & this is what people with this train of thought are not thinking about.
"Just letting it go" means every single hospital & ALL of it's health care workers & support staff workers, all EMS, 1st responders etc etc will be overwhelmed & people with and without the virus NOT be able to get medical care.
It means breakdown in government at all levels, as people get sick & cannot work. It means breakdown in food supply, medical supply, breakdown in law enforcement, breakdown in people who keep his country running that you never think about--For instance utility workers who maintain our power grid, breakdown in people maintaining clean water, breakdown in sewerage treatment plants, breakdown in businesses that also keep us fed, keep our cars running, our phones & computers working, breakdown in people who maintain satellite communications/cell towers/radio communications/news-EVERYTHING.
If this occurs, EVERY system we have breaks down-EVERY SINGLE ONE.
So the result of "just letting it go' would not 'just' be deaths in people from covid-19. If you just "let it go', it would result in deaths of every other disease, plus diseases & illnesses that would emerge as a result of the breakdown of the other systems. Such as hypothermia, giardia, food poisoning, just to name a few of the thousands of possibilities that can be entered here.


For example, YOU may be healthy, YOU may survive covid-19 asymptomatically, YOU may be fine. Then your child, who is also low risk, may get a simple infection that is easily treated, however, you cannot get that treatment, & as a result, that child dies in your home from something so easily treatable because there is NO SYSTEM remaining to get them a simple prescription of, say, penicillin.


The morgues are over run, refrigerator trucks full, there is nowhere to even take your child's body.
People of this frame of thinking are not considering the *UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES* that would occur as a result of "just letting it go".
Perhaps that's no big deal to YOU. Perhaps you figure you can just dig a trench in your back yard & bury your child yourself, or maybe keep the kid in your freezer while you wait for space in a refrigerator truck.
Severe extreme scenarios of unthinkable pain & suffering that is absolutely unnecessary would be the norm if it were 'just let go' to 'thin the herd'

People's thought of "thinning the herd" sounds fine to them, only because they think "that doesn't apply to me"-but it applies to every single person-even people not affected in any negative way by the actual virus.
Think on this.
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Lawrenceville, Pittsburgh
2,109 posts, read 2,174,414 times
Reputation: 1846
Quote:
Originally Posted by Catia View Post
The issue of "just letting it go" is NOT just that simple or cut & dry, & this is what people with this train of thought are not thinking about.
"Just letting it go" means every single hospital & ALL of it's health care workers & support staff workers, all EMS, 1st responders etc etc will be overwhelmed & people with and without the virus NOT be able to get medical care.
It means breakdown in government at all levels, as people get sick & cannot work. It means breakdown in food supply, medical supply, breakdown in law enforcement, breakdown in people who keep his country running that you never think about--For instance utility workers who maintain our power grid, breakdown in people maintaining clean water, breakdown in sewerage treatment plants, breakdown in businesses that also keep us fed, keep our cars running, our phones & computers working, breakdown in people who maintain satellite communications/cell towers/radio communications/news-EVERYTHING.
If this occurs, EVERY system we have breaks down-EVERY SINGLE ONE.
So the result of "just letting it go' would not 'just' be deaths in people from covid-19. If you just "let it go', it would result in deaths of every other disease, plus diseases & illnesses that would emerge as a result of the breakdown of the other systems. Such as hypothermia, giardia, food poisoning, just to name a few of the thousands of possibilities that can be entered here.


For example, YOU may be healthy, YOU may survive covid-19 asymptomatically, YOU may be fine. Then your child, who is also low risk, may get a simple infection that is easily treated, however, you cannot get that treatment, & as a result, that child dies in your home from something so easily treatable because there is NO SYSTEM remaining to get them a simple prescription of, say, penicillin.


The morgues are over run, refrigerator trucks full, there is nowhere to even take your child's body.
People of this frame of thinking are not considering the *UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES* that would occur as a result of "just letting it go".
Perhaps that's no big deal to YOU. Perhaps you figure you can just dig a trench in your back yard & bury your child yourself, or maybe keep the kid in your freezer while you wait for space in a refrigerator truck.
Severe extreme scenarios of unthinkable pain & suffering that is absolutely unnecessary would be the norm if it were 'just let go' to 'thin the herd'

People's thought of "thinning the herd" sounds fine to them, only because they think "that doesn't apply to me"-but it applies to every single person-even people not affected in any negative way by the actual virus.
Think on this.
I think the most frightening thing about "thinning the herd" when it comes to this particular virus (and there are a lot of frightening things...) is that it would disproportionately "thin" trained healthcare workers, frontline physicians and nurses, etc. Is this really what people want?
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