Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Florida, Washington: credit, home, transfer)

[wolfgang239]

Originally Posted by redplum33

A new model is predicting 410k deaths by January. Right now there is 186k, so an additional 224k deaths in the next 4 months. The predicted increase in deaths is due to "declining vigilance of the public".

^ In other words, people aren't wearing masks.

Any other models or just the one that has been laughably wrong the entire time? Are they modeling an actual current declining trend in mask use, a predicted one or is that just you speculating?

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

It has been widely understood since the late spring that the IHME UW model is a joke. The model has been wildly inaccurate at every step of the pandemic.wildly

Every major media source has an article about this new model. If the model is a joke, the articles wouldn't be published.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by wolfgang239

Any other models or just the one that has been laughably wrong the entire time? Are they modeling an actual current declining trend in mask use, a predicted one or is that just you speculating?

No speculation here.

[porterhouse]

Yeah, the media would never publish anything for clicks.

I’d advise you familiarize yourself with the history and accuracy of this model.

[wolfgang239]

Originally Posted by redplum33

No speculation here.

Ok so what is it? The model predicting based on actual measured decline in mask use or one that is assumed to happen eventually? Couldn't find anything to back up your claim

[redplum33]

More than 410,000 people in the US could die from the coronavirus by January 1, more than doubling the current death toll, a new model often cited by top health officials predicted Friday.

That would mean 224,000 more lives lost in the US over the next four months.

Near-universal mask use could cut the number of projected additional fatalities by more than half, according to the model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. But it also warns the cumulative death toll could be much higher by the new year if all restrictions are eased.

"If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000," according to IHME's briefing.

The death rate could reach nearly 3,000 a day by December, an unprecedented number, due in part to "declining vigilance of the public," the IHME expects. For now, the model points to declining mask use in some regions from peak usage in early August.

The IHME model is more aggressive in its predictions than others. It comes a day after a new CDC ensemble forecast predicted 211,000 US deaths from Covid-19 by September 26.

Coronavirus has infected over 6.1 million people nationwide, and more than 186,800 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/04/healt...day/index.html

I don't interpret "more aggressive" as "a joke".

[wolfgang239]

Ah yes, the one so aggressive that it predicted less than 10 deaths per day by early June., and 0 by June 21st?

Sounds like a pretty flawed model to me.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

It has been widely understood since the late spring that the IHME UW model is a joke. The model has been wildly inaccurate at every step of the pandemic.wildly

Yes. Inaccurate on the low side. Just saw this covered on CNN in the past hour.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by wolfgang239

Ah yes, the one so aggressive that it predicted less than 10 deaths per day by early June., and 0 by June 21st?

Sounds like a pretty flawed model to me.

Don't shoot the messenger, wolfgang.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by id77

So the process is anyone with a cough gets tested now? That seems just as likely to overwhelm the already fragile testing capacity we do have with false alarms.

I don't think it's Covid, so do I save the limited tests for others who do think its Covid or do I deplete one of the tests on the 1% chance it is Covid? With as much fanfare around testing lines and shortages as there is, I'm seeing it as more irresponsible to be running out for a limited test every time I cough, though I also understand that some on the other end would advocate exactly that.

If you're sick enough you feel obligated to stay at home away from everyone, get tested. If you cough once, no, probably not. Obviously some judgement needs to be used.

And a lot of the limited testing capacity is being used up by people that just needed to go to Vegas or wherever and don't want to self-quarantine for two weeks.