Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Worcester, Springfield: homes, public schools, college)

[BostonMike7]

Map showing how different communities stack up against each other. Looks like Revere, Lynn and Everett?? are in the red.

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/08/...day-august-11/

[NewfieMama]

Originally Posted by id77

I gotta say, LOL at thinking there's anything Charlie can say or do that will make the population take this more seriously. Those who are going to take it seriously are already at an annoying 11 on the panic-o-meter, those who aren't at 11 aren't going to budge because things went back to phase 2, and the people at 0 on the scale don't give two craps what Charlie thinks or does because 'murica and freedom eagles.

100% agree with this. And 90% of us are in the middle.

I honestly don't think that opening things back up is the issue. I'm closer to a 0 than an 11 on the "panic scale" in that as things open up, I'm there for it. We eat at restaurants, we go on vacation, I go to the gym, my kids are at camp, but we are following all the rules. I don't think the vast majority of us that are out and about, but using common sense, are the issue. I think that's what the most frustrating for me: the data tells me that we can have things be open without seeing an incline in % positive rates, hospitalizations, and deaths. Does it require masks? Sure. Does it mean we can't have huge gatherings? Also yes. But to have to go back to a lockdown or be forced to do remote schooling when data shows us it's feasible to function without it being a catastrophe makes my eye twitch.

[porterhouse]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Map showing how different communities stack up against each other. Looks like Revere, Lynn and Everett?? are in the red.

Add Chelsea to that list (I think). This map is relatively worthless without labels or a supporting data table, neither of which the state has published.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

Add Chelsea to that list (I think). This map is relatively worthless without labels or a supporting data table, neither of which the state has published.

It's Revere, Everett, Chelsea, and Lynn that are red.

I'm pleasantly surprised that Lowell and New Bedford are green. While it's not labeled, here is the PDF version of the map from the state which you can zoom in/out on: https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-av...-2020/download

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

Add Chelsea to that list (I think). This map is relatively worthless without labels or a supporting data table, neither of which the state has published.

It’s also the two weeks ending August 5th. That’s not particularly real time.

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

Add Chelsea to that list (I think). This map is relatively worthless without labels or a supporting data table, neither of which the state has published.

This map tells you the city if you hover: https://www.wcvb.com/article/new-cov...At1nKs9GLWkz4#


While we have a way to go to be considered under control (less than 1 new case per 100,000 per day - statewide we're at 5.5), I feel better knowing that even our top areas are only such that our highest bracket starts at 8.


If you look at Covid Act Now, you can see that the top 10 worst states are all at more than 25 new cases/100,000 with might higher positive rates and much lower-nonexistent asymptomatic testing: https://covidactnow.org/?s=856166 (scroll down) Massachusetts has the 7th best numbers in the country by that metric.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by charolastra00

I'm very proud of where we've come.

While I can appreciate your optimism, let's not get too excited.

Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of Harvard's Global Health Institute, claims "We're missing 80-90% of cases right now".

That quote was from August 3.

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by redplum33

While I can appreciate your optimism, let's not get too excited.

Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of Harvard's Global Health Institute, claims "We're missing 80-90% of cases right now".

That quote was from August 3.

I generally run on the assumption that there are at least 10 times the number of cases out there than known cases.


Doesn't change that in many of the current hotspots, the % positive is as high if not higher than ours was in April and their new cases per 100,000 are higher.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by redplum33

While I can appreciate your optimism, let's not get too excited.

Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of Harvard's Global Health Institute, claims "We're missing 80-90% of cases right now".

That quote was from August 3.

Originally Posted by charolastra00

I generally run on the assumption that there are at least 10 times the number of cases out there than known cases.

I do too, but the wording seems to suggest that this isn't the norm.

[wolfgang239]

Originally Posted by redplum33

While I can appreciate your optimism, let's not get too excited.

Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of Harvard's Global Health Institute, claims "We're missing 80-90% of cases right now".

That quote was from August 3.

If that is really the case then we are in very good shape. The precipitous drop off in cases in many of the areas that were hard hit early on is also great news. Whether it has to do with behavior, the virus itself or both it is much harder to transmit when people are simultaneously taking precautions and heterogeneity is putting up a barrier. "Herd immunity" levels are so much lower if that many people have already contracted the virus.

Obviously no reason to change course, but I wonder if somewhere like NYC or Bergamo could even support another outbreak with continued precautions.