Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Chelsea: deductible, sprawl, health insurance)

[redplum33]

I'd keep an eye on California.

[sawyer2]

Originally Posted by NewfieMama

I could be confused, but historically haven't we seen Wednesdays produce anomalies in data?

That is correct - important to look at the multiple day average and overall trend rather than the absolute number from any one day.

[sawyer2]

Originally Posted by redplum33

I'd keep an eye on California.

Yes, disappointing given where they started, and a warning for us all.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by sawyer2

Indeed - look at AZ - highest positivity rate in the US. Testing is close to being tapped out so this will continue to climb. Imagine what the real positive numbers are.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...states/arizona


The only positive side is that the medical staff now have a far better arsenal and protocols to treat patients, so prognosis for severe patients is far better. Unless of course your healthcare facilities become overwhelmed, which is getting pretty close is some counties.

I haven’t seen anything that indicates that the really high risk people have an improved mortality rate. It kills just as many people now in a Florida nursing home as it did a Northeast nursing home in April. The difference is the lesson learned the hard way about keeping it out of the nursing homes.

I glance at The Villages in Florida since it’s 100,000 high risk people. As you would expect, they’re taking all the steps to keep the transmission rate low.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I haven’t seen anything that indicates that the really high risk people have an improved mortality rate. It kills just as many people now in a Florida nursing home as it did a Northeast nursing home in April. The difference is the lesson learned the hard way about keeping it out of the nursing homes.

I glance at The Villages in Florida since it’s 100,000 high risk people. As you would expect, they’re taking all the steps to keep the transmission rate low.

I believe your assessment is right. Outcomes have improved for lower risk patients, for example those experiencing a severe immune response due to high viral load, but the high risk cohort still appear to be dying at elevated rates.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by sawyer2

Yes, disappointing given where they started, and a warning for us all.

True, but California is a massive physical area and not all regions are being impacted equally. The Bay Area was hit hardest early on, and while it has definitely felt the impact of this second surge, it's not at the same level what's going on in the LA area (the new epicenter of the CA surge). https://www.latimes.com/projects/cal...king-outbreak/

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

I believe your assessment is right. Outcomes have improved for lower risk patients, for example those experiencing a severe immune response due to high viral load, but the high risk cohort still appear to be dying at elevated rates.

...so you focus on keeping those most vulnerable people out of harms way. If Massachusetts had the nursing home infection control process used today back on February 1, the body count would have been reduced by easily half. There are, of course, a ton of other high risk people and the next incremental improvement is to identify as many as possible and keep them out of harms way. Give high priority to testing everyone in a multigenerational household with elderly, for example. Until there is a safe and effective vaccine, we have to live with this thing and we can’t pull the plug indefinitely. It’s a really tough public health problem. Particularly because the United States has very sketchy public health. Those high risk people are often low income with poor or no health insurance. If you count the illegals, Texas has well over 20% uninsured. What a mess.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

...so you focus on keeping those most vulnerable people out of harms way. If Massachusetts had the nursing home infection control process used today back on February 1, the body count would have been reduced by easily half. There are, of course, a ton of other high risk people and the next incremental improvement is to identify as many as possible and keep them out of harms way. Give high priority to testing everyone in a multigenerational household with elderly, for example. Until there is a safe and effective vaccine, we have to live with this thing and we can’t pull the plug indefinitely. It’s a really tough public health problem. Particularly because the United States has very sketchy public health. Those high risk people are often low income with poor or no health insurance. If you count the illegals, Texas has well over 20% uninsured. What a mess.

You hit on an important point. Look at the demographics in TX of the hospitalized ... the lower income Latin-x population is getting absolutely hammered by the virus. I’m willing to bet a significant portion of that can be directly and indirectly attributed to income/insurance and immigration stratus. Not personal choice.

This is a truly dismal.

[yesmaybe]

% positive tests down to 1.6%.

[RBThescot]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

.. Texas has well over 20% uninsured. What a mess.

Texans don't need health insurance. Just hold up a Bible, a picture of the Alamo, fire a warning shot and you're protected.