Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Somerville: halls, temperatures, correctional)

[rach5]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

More evidence that this virus is everywhere already.

NY tested 3K people that were out and about and found 14% already had antibodies for it

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ne...cid=spartanntp

Not a random sample of the population.

[massnative71]

Let's look at how well these predictions turned out for us, I think that says all we need to know...



On 03/30:

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

Not seeing it. Today we are going to be just about as many infected as the last three or four days. We are not going to see doubling of numbers of new cases daily. Today was a bad day death wise but that is to be expected as the deaths lag behind the infections. We probably are not at the peak of deaths yet. But more than 60 days from the first case and double the number of total cases as China we are only at 3000 deaths for the entire country.

Also of note, we posted a large number of "recovered" today. 5000. When Italy hit 4000 recovered (just about a week ago) there were plenty of stories proclaiming the beginning of the end. And you can see clearly Italy's new cases is going down. Posting only 4000 new cases today.

I say we are around a week to 10 days behind them.

In addition the antibody test should be available soon and we can start testing people who can go back to work.

On 03/31

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

How many dead?

Yes I think the USA and MA have hit the more or less peak of cases. Last four or so days in the USA has been about the same.

On 04/01

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

I still say cresting. It isn't like we keep seeing surges in new cases. I would say this 2 week period upcoming will be the highest numbers and then we will go down.

There was a 30 year old who died but it said he has pre-exsisting conditions.



If it were not for the gov't shutting things down life would be going on as normal. Even with these half baked social distancing measures we have a tiny percentage of the population dying from it.

And on 04/02

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

I still say we are cresting. Though it might go up 400 or down 2000... if we are not seeing large jumps each day... we are not going to be seeing them. I say about 7 days from now we will start seeing declines.

In other words:

https://youtu.be/23ARFCQlb3M

[AtkinsonDan]

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

Here is the part that blows your mind...

Reuters) - New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Thursday a screening of 3,000 residents found that 13.9 percent tested positive for antibodies for the novel coronavirus, suggesting that some 2.7 million people across the state may have been infected.

We need to head back to work asap.

We do need to increase economic activity but in the short term we need to do so creatively and that means more expansion in digital, virtual and delivery areas. There is tons of demand for delivery right now. Conventional business operations need to come back slowly to avoid a resurgence of the virus.

[yesmaybe]

Just came back from going for a walk. Def saw the most people I've ever seen walking around this time.

[lrfox]

New daily high for positive cases - 3,079 new positive cases. But that's partly due to the fact that we also hit a new high in terms of the number of people tested - 14,614. By comparison, the previous high was 8,750 on April 16. There are only a handful of other days that saw more than 7,000 tests. So the new high in positive cases isn't as jarring as it initially appears. In fact, it's the lowest percentage positive - 21% - since March 31.

The number of new deaths, 178, is also a new daily high. But if we needed further evidence that nursing homes are disproportionately being ravaged, it's here: https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-da...-2020/download. In terms of cases per capita, the 80+ age bracket is 2,472 cases per 100,000. The next highest? 70-79 at 962 per 100,000. That should make it pretty clear how effective social distancing is. A huge percentage of that 80+ population live in assisted living facilities where social distancing isn't possible like it is for the rest of us and their infection rate highlights the dangers of that.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

Just came back from going for a walk. Def saw the most people I've ever seen walking around this time.

Our home office faces the street and I made the same exact remark to my girlfriend. I'm amazed at the amount of people out and about. A combination of restlessness and a gorgeous day, no doubt.

[Arya Stark]

Originally Posted by lrfox

That should make it pretty clear how effective social distancing is. A huge percentage of that 80+ population live in assisted living facilities where social distancing isn't possible like it is for the rest of us and their infection rate highlights the dangers of that.

It is about the age. Prisons have a lot of young people in them and they are not able to social distance. The death rate (and infection rate) has been super low.

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

Here is the part that blows your mind...

Reuters) - New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Thursday a screening of 3,000 residents found that 13.9 percent tested positive for antibodies for the novel coronavirus, suggesting that some 2.7 million people across the state may have been infected.

We need to head back to work asap.

So, 20% of New York City (potentially) has been exposed to coronavirus and even that relatively small group overwhelmed the medical system. What exactly about that statistic tells you we need to go back to work asap?

[brightdoglover]

Originally Posted by lrfox

[url="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/23/nation/coronavirus-boston-massachusetts-april-23/"]...That should make it pretty clear how effective social distancing is. A huge percentage of that 80+ population live in assisted living facilities where social distancing isn't possible like it is for the rest of us and their infection rate highlights the dangers of that.

Not only the residents of a facility can't distance from each other, they are receiving direct care constantly from people who are coming in from outside lives- doubtful that staff members live alone, or wear masks or physical distance from family and friends, ride public transportation and carpool, and may very well be asymptomatic positives.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by lrfox

New daily high for positive cases - 3,079 new positive cases. But that's partly due to the fact that we also hit a new high in terms of the number of people tested - 14,614. By comparison, the previous high was 8,750 on April 16. There are only a handful of other days that saw more than 7,000 tests. So the new high in positive cases isn't as jarring as it initially appears. In fact, it's the lowest percentage positive - 21% - since March 31.

The number of new deaths, 178, is also a new daily high.

Sad to correct you, but yesterday 4/22 was the highest with 221 new deaths reported.