Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Gloucester: condo, public school, university)

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

MA is pretty much there for 12+.

I think a few towns may be there (Lexington, Newton come to mind) but I think we're in aggregate somewhere in the mid-70% range.

[NewfieMama]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

And I know 2 acquaintances in RI, 44 and 51, both apparently healthy, who caught and tragically passed away from Covid. However--and this is my point--both were unvaxxed.

If we were to get to the 85-90% level of vaccination similar to measles, the virus and its variants would be snuffed out for practical purposes.

Even at a 90% vaccination rate, COVID won't be snuffed out because of the transmission between the vaccinated. After many studies, it does appear that vaccines help to reduce transmission, but not at the rate needed to stop spreading COVID altogether. The few people I know right now that have covid are all fully vaxxed.

I've also been keeping an eye on hospitalizations for vaxxed vs. unvaxxed in MA. As of 11/17, there were 657 hospitalized covid patients. Of those, 239 are fully vaxxed. So 36% of covid patients in the hospital are fully vaxxed, which is a much higher percentage than I was expecting.

Obviously the vaccine is still an effective tool to fight covid, but it's not going to eliminate it. Or keep people from dying. I think the anti-viral treatment will be a huge weapon in fighting extended hospital stays and ICU beds needed.

We are very clearly in a MUCH better place than we were a year ago. We have vaccines, we have better treatment, and it may even be that the vaccine + natural immunity combo (for those who either had covid before vaccines or have gotten covid after the vaccine) may set us up for the best protection. But we are clearly in "endemic" territory now because we can't eradicate covid with vaccines.

If you want to protect yourself as best as you can, you can get the vaccine. If it's still too scary out there for you, it's probably best to stay home forever.

[mdovell]

Well the announcement that I've been waiting for finally happened the other day. At work management has pretty much said that they anticipate a hybrid environment to continue until at least May. We're not increasing the number of days in the office but we're not lowering them either. We're still two on and three off. They said that if things get worse we can pull back which I'm assuming means maybe one day or just not at all but at no point did they say we're going to have everybody back in.

Now I know there's always going to be those people that say that everything has to go back to the office but the fact of the matter remains that we've gone not just weeks or months but pretty soon we're going to be going through year to of this. It isn't a government mandate that's keeping people at home it's simple business Market decisions. I just don't think that we can legitimately tell people on an individual level to come back without realizing the aggregate impacts like traffic.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

I think a few towns may be there (Lexington, Newton come to mind) but I think we're in aggregate somewhere in the mid-70% range.

For 12+ and one dose, Suffolk (Boston) is 86%, Middlesex (Cambridge) and Norfolk (Brookline) is 92%.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by NewfieMama

I've also been keeping an eye on hospitalizations for vaxxed vs. unvaxxed in MA. As of 11/17, there were 657 hospitalized covid patients. Of those, 239 are fully vaxxed. So 36% of covid patients in the hospital are fully vaxxed, which is a much higher percentage than I was expecting.

I think your mistake is looking at the whole population instead of the highest risk part of the population that lands in the hospital. You're also not looking at when they actually got vaccinated.


When I look at the NYT charts for Massachusetts, the majority of people hospitalized are age 75+. They're highly vaccinated. Statewide, 437.9k out of 493.3k age 75+ are fully vaccinated. 99% have at least one jab. Generally, most of those people were vaccinated in March so they're now at very diminished vaccine efficacy. That group is also going to have a high percentage of people with degraded immune systems.



The next age groups at age 50+ and 65+ are also highly vaccinated. 94% with at least one jab for age 50+ and 99%+ for age 65+. Again, those were the "early" people who were vaccinated in March/April and they're far more likely to have people with degraded immune systems than the under 50 groups.



The way I see it, 36% is really good. If the vaccines didn't work, you'd expect to see 90%+, not 36%. If you get boosters into arms of everyone age 50+, it should be even better.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I think your mistake is looking at the whole population instead of the highest risk part of the population that lands in the hospital. You're also not looking at when they actually got vaccinated.


When I look at the NYT charts for Massachusetts, the majority of people hospitalized are age 75+. They're highly vaccinated. Statewide, 437.9k out of 493.3k age 75+ are fully vaccinated. 99% have at least one jab. Generally, most of those people were vaccinated in March so they're now at very diminished vaccine efficacy. That group is also going to have a high percentage of people with degraded immune systems.



The next age groups at age 50+ and 65+ are also highly vaccinated. 94% with at least one jab for age 50+ and 99%+ for age 65+. Again, those were the "early" people who were vaccinated in March/April and they're far more likely to have people with degraded immune systems than the under 50 groups.



The way I see it, 36% is really good. If the vaccines didn't work, you'd expect to see 90%+, not 36%. If you get boosters into arms of everyone age 50+, it should be even better.

I see it as really good too. Especially considering the percent vaccinated in the hospital vs the percent of the overall population vaccinated. The vast majority of MA (70%) is vaccinated and the vast majority of the hospitalizations (64%) are unvaccinated. Even without accounting for age, those figures are significant and show just how effective the vaccines are at preventing serious infections.

[NewfieMama]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I think your mistake is looking at the whole population instead of the highest risk part of the population that lands in the hospital. You're also not looking at when they actually got vaccinated.

When I look at the NYT charts for Massachusetts, the majority of people hospitalized are age 75+. They're highly vaccinated. Statewide, 437.9k out of 493.3k age 75+ are fully vaccinated. 99% have at least one jab. Generally, most of those people were vaccinated in March so they're now at very diminished vaccine efficacy. That group is also going to have a high percentage of people with degraded immune systems.

The next age groups at age 50+ and 65+ are also highly vaccinated. 94% with at least one jab for age 50+ and 99%+ for age 65+. Again, those were the "early" people who were vaccinated in March/April and they're far more likely to have people with degraded immune systems than the under 50 groups.

The way I see it, 36% is really good. If the vaccines didn't work, you'd expect to see 90%+, not 36%. If you get boosters into arms of everyone age 50+, it should be even better.

You're absolutely right, I can't see the hospitalization rate broken out by age, but I am willing to bet that the majority of those who are vaccinated and hospitalized are 65+. I have read in multiple sources that a vaccinated 65+ person is still more at risk of being hospitalized than an unvaccinated kid under 12.

I am still surprised that it's 36% given how much you hear about how ONLY unvaccinated are filling hospitals and dying. Covid is going to stick around, it's going to put vaccinated people in hospitals (the elderly and those who have comorbidities), and people will still die. That's still better than where we were a year ago.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by NewfieMama

You're absolutely right, I can't see the hospitalization rate broken out by age, but I am willing to bet that the majority of those who are vaccinated and hospitalized are 65+. I have read in multiple sources that a vaccinated 65+ person is still more at risk of being hospitalized than an unvaccinated kid under 12.

I am still surprised that it's 36% given how much you hear about how ONLY unvaccinated are filling hospitals and dying. Covid is going to stick around, it's going to put vaccinated people in hospitals (the elderly and those who have comorbidities), and people will still die. That's still better than where we were a year ago.

I can't link the chart but I have the NY Times Massachusetts hospitalization chart up.


Age 70+. Around 9 daily admissions per 100,000.


Age 60-69. Around 3 1/2 daily admissions per 100,000.


Both 50-59 and "all ages" are around 2 daily admissions per 100,000.


Given the high vaccination rates of those age groups, it seems plausible to assume that most of the breakthrough infections landing people in the hospital are older patients. Most vaccinated more than 6 months ago and many with compromised immune systems. Without better data, it's still just an assumption.


In my opinion, the booster guidance from the CDC and FDA should have been age 50+ from the start, not age 65+. We had plenty of data on Pfizer from Israel going back to July.

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

MA is pretty much there for 12+.

And kids hardly spread the virus at all (my logic being, asymptomatic people mostly don't spread it, and kids mostly don't get symptomatically sick).

The people claiming this will go away with just a few percentage points more people vaccinated are living a fairy tale, full stop. I actually feel sorry for them.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

And kids hardly spread the virus at all (my logic being, asymptomatic people mostly don't spread it, and kids mostly don't get symptomatically sick).

The people claiming this will go away with just a few percentage points more people vaccinated are living a fairy tale, full stop. I actually feel sorry for them.

You're right. If there's more with this kind of attitude and denial of facts, it will indeed never go away.