Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, New Bedford, Bedford: holistic, crimes, credit)

[YevTK]

Using the MA historical CFR data and the 2-week data on the dashboard, I was able to calculate the reduction in deaths due to the vaccine.

From the historical data you can calculate the CFR by age and the dashboard provides cases and deaths by age for the past two weeks. So using the historical CFR by age you can then calculate the expected deaths for the past two weeks based on the number of cases in the latest two weeks. Adjusting for age is the critical factor as there is such a steep increase in the CFR as patients get older.

Without vaccination the case level over the past two weeks would have led to 232 deaths vs the 42 actuals reported. Therefore I conclude the vaccine is highly effective at preventing death.

Limitations: this calculation doesn't account for the lag in deaths following confirmed cases, however the ratio is fairly stable. In addition, the historical data includes both pre-vaccination and post-vaccination rates, however at looked back at the pre-vaccination rates and they were similar.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by rach5

It does seem like it. No worries, the CDC will catch up in two-three months
In other news, Gov. Abbott tested positive today. He has been tested daily, has no symptoms and is already receiving Regeneron. https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/polit...-19/index.html
What the f*** is wrong with this country. Will some of these people eventually be tried for crimes against humanity??

Crimes against humanity is overblown, IMO. Certainly though, the political hacks denying the dangers of the virus, denying the efficacy of the mitigation methods and in fact exaggerating or fabricating the dangers of the mitigation methods, all while ranting feverishly about dark conspiracies and mind control and championing refusal to get vaccinated, refusal to mask up and socially distance, have greatly exacerbated the pandemic here.

[msRB311]

The article says governor Abbott was fully vaccinated ?

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by YevTK

Using the MA historical CFR data and the 2-week data on the dashboard, I was able to calculate the reduction in deaths due to the vaccine.

From the historical data you can calculate the CFR by age and the dashboard provides cases and deaths by age for the past two weeks. So using the historical CFR by age you can then calculate the expected deaths for the past two weeks based on the number of cases in the latest two weeks. Adjusting for age is the critical factor as there is such a steep increase in the CFR as patients get older.

Without vaccination the case level over the past two weeks would have led to 232 deaths vs the 42 actuals reported. Therefore I conclude the vaccine is highly effective at preventing death.

Limitations: this calculation doesn't account for the lag in deaths following confirmed cases, however the ratio is fairly stable. In addition, the historical data includes both pre-vaccination and post-vaccination rates, however at looked back at the pre-vaccination rates and they were similar.

Personally, I think it would be a lot higher than that because it would be really tough to keep it out of the nursing homes without vaccination. Even with good infection control process, with Delta, an infected CNA could easily take out dozens of nursing home residents since the transmission rate is so high.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Personally, I think it would be a lot higher than that because it would be really tough to keep it out of the nursing homes without vaccination. Even with good infection control process, with Delta, an infected CNA could easily take out dozens of nursing home residents since the transmission rate is so high.

I just saw footage of CBS talkin to some medical staff in Louisiana and there was an EMT that said she hadn't been vaccinated. I might have thought about going there in February to get warm during the winter but all bets are off now. I can't see any reason why medical staff would resist a vaccine it makes no logical sense. It's almost like a mechanic that can't drive a car because of a DUI

[msRB311]

It could be some people are truly worried about the effects the vaccine could have on their bodies? I'm not saying it makes sense but not everything is political. Most anti vax moms aren't anti vax for political reasons.

[NewfieMama]

Originally Posted by mdovell

I just saw footage of CBS talkin to some medical staff in Louisiana and there was an EMT that said she hadn't been vaccinated. I might have thought about going there in February to get warm during the winter but all bets are off now. I can't see any reason why medical staff would resist a vaccine it makes no logical sense. It's almost like a mechanic that can't drive a car because of a DUI

Maybe she has already had covid? Wouldn't be surprised if she is an EMT and was likely exposed to it more than the average person prior to vaccines being available.

[msRB311]

It seems like when someone says they're not vaccinated they might as well be saying, I have Covid...or worse.

[YevTK]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Personally, I think it would be a lot higher than that because it would be really tough to keep it out of the nursing homes without vaccination. Even with good infection control process, with Delta, an infected CNA could easily take out dozens of nursing home residents since the transmission rate is so high.

Staggeringly, the historical CFR for the over 80s in MA has been around 50%.

The vaccine seems to cut the CFR to around 8%.

Unfortunately there are still over 40,000 of the over 75s in MA who are not vaccinated.

I think the state should work will all physicians offices to reach out to every elderly patient to find out why they aren't vaccinated and encourage them to do so (if medically ok). We could save a lot of deaths that way.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by msRB311

It could be some people are truly worried about the effects the vaccine could have on their bodies? I'm not saying it makes sense but not everything is political. Most anti vax moms aren't anti vax for political reasons.

Well, I am sure that many people are afraid of the vaccines. But you can't separate it from politics. Vaccines have never been political before. But one party has made it their thing to argue that the vaccines don't work and are dangerous. There are of course exceptions, but the overall correlation is clear. Heck, until recently, some southern governors were touring and holding large political rallies where they urged refusal for vaccines and masking as "patriotic". Not coincidentally, their states lead the nation in problems. It's crazy.

Charlie Baker has bucked his party on the Covid-19 disinformation and conspiracy theories, and I am so grateful for that. He gets criticized and second-guessed to death here, but he's okay by me. He's taken it seriously from the start, and not once has he denied the science or made stuff up. I think he's been thoughtful about trying to walk a middle line on public health measures. I don't expect perfection, but I do expect competence and someone operating in good faith. The man gets an "A" from me!