Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston: annually, how much, dorms)

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by rach5

Exactly. What concerns me the most is that schools and universities here haven't even started back up yet, and weather will get worse in the fall.

Agreed. I mean, we don't want to panic, and certainly, disaster isn't a foregone conclusion. But while at first I was hoping we *might* get by without too much of an impact up here, the more info that I see as this develops, the less likely I think that rosey scenario is. Mind you, that still doesn't mean we're doomed to replicate what FL or LA is going through, yet.

It'll really help if more people get vaccinated, then, if things grow worse, if mask mandates are used, and finally, if it gets bad enough we may have to go back to bar/restaurant shutdowns and school shutdowns. That's the thing some people don't seem to get - if people come together on using the easy options, we don't have to get to the really painful last-ditch options of shutdowns.

[msRB311]

This is going to be a **** show this fall.

I think a lot of people are indoors now too because of the weather...but yes it will get worse.

[msRB311]

I know this isn't FL but damn:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-s...165516484.html


Also this that this 30 yr old mom died of it too:

https://wsvn.com/news/local/florida-...-giving-birth/

For whatever reason her parents wouldn't say if she was vaccinated or not...they said it shouldn't matter and a 30 yr old shouldn't be dying of this..I tend to agree but based on that response she wasn't vaccinated...I also don't blame her too much because I'd have been nervous to get the vaccine if I was preggo as well.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by rach5

Exactly. What concerns me the most is that schools and universities here haven't even started back up yet, and weather will get worse in the fall.

Yes, but some of the biggest ones (e.g. BU) have mandated vaccines. I wouldn't be as paranoid about it as last year.

[msRB311]

But the int'l students have been given a few weeks to get their vaccines once they get here...that gives them plenty of time to get on a plane and come into boston and spread it around. Last year there was no one coming here on a plane to go to to college. I think this could be worse...I hope it's not but has the potential...people who are vaccinated are still getting this.

[rach5]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Yes, but some of the biggest ones (e.g. BU) have mandated vaccines. I wouldn't be as paranoid about it as last year.

I just checked Brown University in my state, which is about 95% vaccinated and has started weekly testing again. They have only *First Years* on campus right now finishing up their summer semester I believe. This week, the employee *asymptomatic* positivity rate was 0.25%, and the student asymptomatic positivity rate was 0.27%.
https://healthy.brown.edu/testing-tracing/dashboard
So about 1 in 400 asymptomatic, mostly vaccinated, people are positive. This is incredible (and similar to the peak in asympt. positivity when students arrived to campus in late January). What a mess New England will be when we have students arriving from all over (the US and the world), and living in *crowded* dorms.
How can this not be a disaster waiting to happen (not necessarily for the students, but for our communities)?

[YevTK]

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

Even statewide, with about 35% lacking full vaccination, that's over 2 million highly susceptible residents. I'd say that things have the potential to get really bad here too. Once the area has a fairly high active case load, you've just got so many more spreaders of disease, it's like a wildfire that was smoldering and then gets out of control - it gets bigger faster because it's already bigger - you have a larger interface of propagation. Very difficult to reel it in once you cross a certain point, is my intuition anyways.

You are not considering those that have already been infected among the 35%.

10% of the population has tested positive and we know that the true infection rate is higher. The CDC estimates 4.2 infections per reported case. I think this is likely too high for MA as the state had a high testing rate. So I think 3X is reasonable.

That means that around 30% have been infected. Assuming this group has been vaccinated at the same rate as the rest of the population, then we get an additional 10% that have some immunity but haven't been vaccinated. That gets us to around 75%.

Whether that is enough to stop or slow the spread only time will tell.

I know international comparisons can be problematic but on an optimistic note, the tide turned in the UK at lower vaccination rates than MA has now (1st UK 69%, MA 71%, Full UK 59%, MA 64%).

[justyouraveragetenant]

https://youtu.be/X_YArTfIIYI

The propaganda continues to go to the next step in operation lockstep. It's concerning people making decisions on mandates are not even elected.

[msRB311]

I guess people need to get over it or buckle up. Those who are immunocompromised should be careful obviously...but if places aren't shutting down what are people supposed to do? They are going to live their lives. Baker has no plans to make masks mandatory again. Many institutions are mandating them when indoors.

I will get flack for this but for many having covid has been like having a cold. Or nothing! I feel for the people who are old or have health problems...they'll have to stay inside as much as they can i guess.

It's like a peanut allergy...schools can ban peanut butter for that one kid who has an allergy but everywhere else it's up to those folks with the peanut allergy (or the parents) to take care of themselves. The world can't be expected to change their lives for people who have weakened immune systems forever.

When my kids were newborns I was paranoid about germs because i was scared of them getting sick. If someone has the need to feel that way they can go right ahead but not everyone is going to share that sentiment.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by rach5

I just checked Brown University in my state, which is about 95% vaccinated and has started weekly testing again. They have only *First Years* on campus right now finishing up their summer semester I believe. This week, the employee *asymptomatic* positivity rate was 0.25%, and the student asymptomatic positivity rate was 0.27%.
https://healthy.brown.edu/testing-tracing/dashboard
So about 1 in 400 asymptomatic, mostly vaccinated, people are positive. This is incredible (and similar to the peak in asympt. positivity when students arrived to campus in late January). What a mess New England will be when we have students arriving from all over (the US and the world), and living in *crowded* dorms.
How can this not be a disaster waiting to happen (not necessarily for the students, but for our communities)?

I think most locales would *kill* for a <0.3% positivity rate. I would not worry about New England colleges and universities contributing to another surge this fall. We gotta focus on the ~2M unvaxxed in our state instead. Yesterday's SC ruling, and impending FDA approval, will (I believe) open the floodgates for employers and businesses to start to require proof of vaccination.

Brighter days (than last fall) are ahead.